Last week (before the latest revelations about the Central LINK float disappearing), I sent out a poll to the STB authors asking them to estimate the percentage chance that LINK construction meets certain deadlines.
In their estimates, respondents were asked to consider all types of risk: engineering, political, financial, economic, volcano, Godzilla, etc.
I got replies from Andrew, Ben, Brian, John, and I did one myself. For your reading pleasure and future ridicule:
1) Central Link (minus Beacon Hill Station) opens by July 3, 2009:
Mean: 84.4%, High: 100% (Brian), Low: 30% (Ben)
2) Beacon Hill station opens by July 3, 2009:
Mean: 77%, High: 95% (Martin, Andrew, Brian), Low: 30% (Ben)
3) Airport Link opens by December 31, 2009:
Mean: 88%, High: 100% (Brian), Low: 80% (John, Ben)
4) U-Link opens by December 31, 2016:
Mean: 80%, High: 90% (John), Low: 65% (Brian)
5) U-Link is indefinitely deferred at some point:
Mean: 5%, High: 10% (Martin), Low: 0% (John)
6) Northgate opens by December 31, 2018 (two years ahead of schedule):
Mean: 22%, High: 70% (Andrew), Low: 5% (Brian)
7) Northgate opens by December 31, 2020 (including any opening before 2018):
Mean: 78%, High: 95% (Brian), Low: 65% (Martin)
8) Link to Northgate is indefinitely deferred at some point:
Mean: 7%, High: 15% (Martin), Low: 0% (Brian)
9) Seattle-Bellevue Link opens by December 31, 2020:
Mean: 39%, High: 60% (John, Andrew), Low: 10% (Ben)
10) Seattle-Bellevue Link opens by December 31, 2024 (including any opening before 2020):
Mean: 72%, High: 85% (John, Andrew), Low: 60% (Brian, Martin)
11) Seattle-Bellevue link is deferred indefinitely at some point:
Mean: 19.2%, High: 35% (Martin), Low: 1% (John)
In my defense on the December 31st 2018 number, I expect at some point the money for U-Link or North Link will be accelerated by the feds.
Yeah! 84.4% mean for CenLink opening! Looks like the experts have spoken! It’s gonna happen, baby!
Experts? Most of us aren’t even wearing pants when we blog. Pants!
At least I wear pants when I comment. Maybe that’s what helps me recognize sarcasm.
Snap!
I wear pants when I blog. Fancy pants.
Says the most overdressed man in the pacific northwest. :)
Snap !
I’d say the mean values are pretty representative of reality. It’s interesting to see though how even amongst a relatively like minded group the deviation from the mean is so large. I bet mean deviation would give a good correlation to risk.
South Link extension to Tacoma (as part of ST3) passes on 2014 or 2016 ballots:
Mean: ????????
Hah- After they posted this poll, the Times broke the story that Sound Transit unknowingly used subpar steel in the Tukwila elevated track sections. The vendor is being charged with fraud and falsifying documents.
I hope to god this doesn’t delay the opening.
Story: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008888664_webrailfraud19m.html
The comments (not surprisingly) lean toward blaming ST for lack of oversite. The article clear says that the test documents were falsified. Clearly ST was checking. I don’t know any of the specifics but either ST figured this out or an effective whistle blower policy outed this fraud. Even if ST did (and I don’t know if they do) perform independent spot tests the results may still have past strength requirements since it is a minimum and some of the substandard steel would likely have exceeded it’s minimum.
It’s impossible to know what effect this has on the system going forward without knowing the engineering details. It’s possible the material was overspec’d in the first place. This is way to common in today’s under engineered overly expensive environment. It’s also possible the additional strength was a requirement that was driven by needs during construction when sections are lacking the support of the completed system (i.e. we got lucky, no earthquake during construction). The “good news” is that it’s not the vertical rebar.
Mark, it won’t. Read the full article — everything’s safe. This is steel that goes *around* the base of the columns — not the rebar that is inside of it. Good thing that guy is going to jail, but everything should still be 100% safe.
But, if you had to ask me today, based on some recent news and mumblings I’d say there’s an 80% chance of a two week delay unrelated to this mess. :(
Related to the completion of Link: What’s going on with those huge polls installed over the entrance of the I5 tunnel entrance into Beacon Hill? A huge art installation related to Link?