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	<title>Comments on: Ridership Error In Your Favor</title>
	<atom:link href="http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/</link>
	<description>Transit in the Greater Seattle Area</description>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Anc</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-103160</link>
		<dc:creator>Anc</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 19:32:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-103160</guid>
		<description>Are you serious?   First off by any measure it would be completely retarded to think that you could judge success or failure of what will be a DECADES, if not Century, lasting piece of infrastructure AFTER SIX MONTHS.  

Secondly to repeat myself, ridership numbers are only one metric from which to gauge success of a line.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
Are you serious?   First off by any measure it would be completely retarded to think that you could judge success or failure of what will be a DECADES, if not Century, lasting piece of infrastructure AFTER SIX MONTHS.  </p>
<p>Secondly to repeat myself, ridership numbers are only one metric from which to gauge success of a line.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Oran Viriyincy</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-103034</link>
		<dc:creator>Oran Viriyincy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 09:25:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-103034</guid>
		<description>Look, transit agencies all over the country use APCs on buses and trains to count passengers, including King County Metro. You go tell all of them about that.

This is not a Link light rail problem. This is not a Sound Transit problem.

How hard is it to understand that as ridership grows, operators and fare checkers become a tiny fraction of ridership. Luggage counts can be corrected using better algorithms to analyze sensor data, to say it can&#039;t be done is pure BS. I know people whose research is in improving image detection techniques for counting pedestrians and cars.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
Look, transit agencies all over the country use APCs on buses and trains to count passengers, including King County Metro. You go tell all of them about that.</p>
<p>This is not a Link light rail problem. This is not a Sound Transit problem.</p>
<p>How hard is it to understand that as ridership grows, operators and fare checkers become a tiny fraction of ridership. Luggage counts can be corrected using better algorithms to analyze sensor data, to say it can&#8217;t be done is pure BS. I know people whose research is in improving image detection techniques for counting pedestrians and cars.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Zed</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-103010</link>
		<dc:creator>Zed</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 06:38:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-103010</guid>
		<description>The ridership numbers are estimates. Squabbling over whether or not an operator or fare checker was counted is pointless.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
The ridership numbers are estimates. Squabbling over whether or not an operator or fare checker was counted is pointless.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Norman</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-103003</link>
		<dc:creator>Norman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 06:22:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-103003</guid>
		<description>Your first statement is not logical.  Fare checkers check about 125 cars per day.  One-third of those cars have automatic counters.  So, about 42 cars with counters will be boarded by fare checkers each day.  ST then extrapolates from that sample to assume that 125 cars per day have fare checkers (or, an extra three &quot;boardings&quot; per day).  If the system is not designed to count all the fare checkers, then how could it count all the &quot;real&quot; passengers?

Many, if not most, transit systems also count fares, and fare revenues collected.  When are we going to get some &quot;fares paid&quot;, and &quot;fare revenues collected&quot; figures for Link light rail?  Those would be more meaningful numbers.  Luggage, operators, and fare checkers don&#039;t pay fares, so a count of fares paid would be far more accurate.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
Your first statement is not logical.  Fare checkers check about 125 cars per day.  One-third of those cars have automatic counters.  So, about 42 cars with counters will be boarded by fare checkers each day.  ST then extrapolates from that sample to assume that 125 cars per day have fare checkers (or, an extra three &#8220;boardings&#8221; per day).  If the system is not designed to count all the fare checkers, then how could it count all the &#8220;real&#8221; passengers?</p>
<p>Many, if not most, transit systems also count fares, and fare revenues collected.  When are we going to get some &#8220;fares paid&#8221;, and &#8220;fare revenues collected&#8221; figures for Link light rail?  Those would be more meaningful numbers.  Luggage, operators, and fare checkers don&#8217;t pay fares, so a count of fares paid would be far more accurate.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Oran Viriyincy</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102962</link>
		<dc:creator>Oran Viriyincy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 03:13:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102962</guid>
		<description>Assuming 25% inspection rate and 1/3 fleet with APC, the probability of fare checkers being counted by a car equipped with APC is low, only 1/12 chance.

All transit systems using APC will suffer these issues. No APC system is 100 percent accurate. Even manual counts have errors. The only reason you&#039;re making a big deal out of this is to claim that ST&#039;s ridership figures are inflated. As ridership increases your concern will solve itself as the claimed false boardings (if they even exist) become smaller and smaller as a proportion of total boardings.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
Assuming 25% inspection rate and 1/3 fleet with APC, the probability of fare checkers being counted by a car equipped with APC is low, only 1/12 chance.</p>
<p>All transit systems using APC will suffer these issues. No APC system is 100 percent accurate. Even manual counts have errors. The only reason you&#8217;re making a big deal out of this is to claim that ST&#8217;s ridership figures are inflated. As ridership increases your concern will solve itself as the claimed false boardings (if they even exist) become smaller and smaller as a proportion of total boardings.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Norman</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102958</link>
		<dc:creator>Norman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 02:41:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102958</guid>
		<description>Does the number of riders indicate whether or not Central Link is worth the money spent to build it?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
Does the number of riders indicate whether or not Central Link is worth the money spent to build it?<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Norman</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102957</link>
		<dc:creator>Norman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 02:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102957</guid>
		<description>Each train has two cars.  The fare checkers board each car of each train (they hop off the first car and jump onto the second car of each train at a station).  With teams of 3 fare checkers, all three of whom board each car, that is six boardings per (2-car) train.  If they check 62 trains, times 6 boardings per train, that totals 372 boardings per day by fare checkers.  I have seen this being done many times.  That is how it works.  I am using your estimate of 25% of trains checked.

The manual counter said they had not been able to correct the APC&#039;s to avoid false counts.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
Each train has two cars.  The fare checkers board each car of each train (they hop off the first car and jump onto the second car of each train at a station).  With teams of 3 fare checkers, all three of whom board each car, that is six boardings per (2-car) train.  If they check 62 trains, times 6 boardings per train, that totals 372 boardings per day by fare checkers.  I have seen this being done many times.  That is how it works.  I am using your estimate of 25% of trains checked.</p>
<p>The manual counter said they had not been able to correct the APC&#8217;s to avoid false counts.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Jason Mitchell</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102919</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason Mitchell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:38:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102919</guid>
		<description>Yes, Norman, I&#039;m going to make that assumption and trust the transportation professionals analyzing data over you and some folks hired to count passengers. Call me crazy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
Yes, Norman, I&#8217;m going to make that assumption and trust the transportation professionals analyzing data over you and some folks hired to count passengers. Call me crazy.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Oran Viriyincy</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102918</link>
		<dc:creator>Oran Viriyincy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:34:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102918</guid>
		<description>If those people were hired by ST to just count passengers, then what do they know about how ST analyzes the data from them?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
If those people were hired by ST to just count passengers, then what do they know about how ST analyzes the data from them?<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Oran Viriyincy</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102911</link>
		<dc:creator>Oran Viriyincy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:22:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102911</guid>
		<description>&quot;How do you figure that the train doesn’t have to know how many people boarded at SeaTac? &quot;

I didn&#039;t say that. I said at the end it doesn&#039;t have to.

Where did you get 500 trips?  Over an 18 hour service day that&#039;s 13 trips/hour/direction on average which is much higher than the peak frequency of Link (8 tphpd). I&#039;m basing my trips off what David Seater posted above (124 trains/direction) which 25% is 62 inspected trips per day. Two checkers makes 122 and three checkers makes 186 counts, per day. That&#039;s still around or less than 1% the total daily boardings and will become less significant over time.

&lt;i&gt;Who knows how many large bags get counted as “boardings”?&lt;/i&gt;

Since you said the manual counter mentioned that, then they would have corrected the sensitivity of the APCs to reduce false counts. No big deal.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
&#8220;How do you figure that the train doesn’t have to know how many people boarded at SeaTac? &#8221;</p>
<p>I didn&#8217;t say that. I said at the end it doesn&#8217;t have to.</p>
<p>Where did you get 500 trips?  Over an 18 hour service day that&#8217;s 13 trips/hour/direction on average which is much higher than the peak frequency of Link (8 tphpd). I&#8217;m basing my trips off what David Seater posted above (124 trains/direction) which 25% is 62 inspected trips per day. Two checkers makes 122 and three checkers makes 186 counts, per day. That&#8217;s still around or less than 1% the total daily boardings and will become less significant over time.</p>
<p><i>Who knows how many large bags get counted as “boardings”?</i></p>
<p>Since you said the manual counter mentioned that, then they would have corrected the sensitivity of the APCs to reduce false counts. No big deal.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Anc</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102870</link>
		<dc:creator>Anc</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 22:38:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102870</guid>
		<description>Are ridership numbers in and of themselves important?

No.  It is only one metric of success, highly volatile, and it is waaayyy to early to have any sort of perspective.

Are ridership numbers something that the public at large PERCEIVES as being important?  

Yes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
Are ridership numbers in and of themselves important?</p>
<p>No.  It is only one metric of success, highly volatile, and it is waaayyy to early to have any sort of perspective.</p>
<p>Are ridership numbers something that the public at large PERCEIVES as being important?  </p>
<p>Yes.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Norman</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102862</link>
		<dc:creator>Norman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 22:25:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102862</guid>
		<description>&quot;I wonder how many times I have been counted and more importantly, Norman, why it even matters??&quot;  It would matter if anyone cares how many people are making use of Link trains.

I think this raises a very good point:  what difference does it make what Link ridership is?  This site keeps publishing ridership statistics.  If ridership doesn&#039;t matter, then why even have a thread about ridership?

So, I would ask those of you engaging me on this thread:  are ridership numbers important, and if so why?  If not, why not?

[deleted, off-topic]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
&#8220;I wonder how many times I have been counted and more importantly, Norman, why it even matters??&#8221;  It would matter if anyone cares how many people are making use of Link trains.</p>
<p>I think this raises a very good point:  what difference does it make what Link ridership is?  This site keeps publishing ridership statistics.  If ridership doesn&#8217;t matter, then why even have a thread about ridership?</p>
<p>So, I would ask those of you engaging me on this thread:  are ridership numbers important, and if so why?  If not, why not?</p>
<p>[deleted, off-topic]<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Norman</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102860</link>
		<dc:creator>Norman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 22:20:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102860</guid>
		<description>You might make that assumption, but, from talking with the people ST hired as counters, that is not the impression I got.  They certainly gave no indication that ST was subtracting fare checkers and other ST personnel from their counts.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
You might make that assumption, but, from talking with the people ST hired as counters, that is not the impression I got.  They certainly gave no indication that ST was subtracting fare checkers and other ST personnel from their counts.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Norman</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102858</link>
		<dc:creator>Norman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 22:16:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102858</guid>
		<description>How do you figure that the train doesn&#039;t have to know how many people boarded at SeaTac?  particularly, if you are saying that the trains don&#039;t count deboardings at Westlake?  They have to count at at least one of the end stations for every train, don&#039;t they? 

At SeaTac, drivers board trains at the same time, through the same doors, as passengers.

If fare checkers check 1/4 of train cars, that is 125 cars per day (out of 500 car trips).  Three checkers times 125 cars equals 375 fare checkers counted as &quot;boardings.&quot;

Who knows how many large bags get counted as &quot;boardings&quot;?  If there are an average of 5 large bags per car, that would be a potential 2,500 false boardings.  If the automatic counters counted just 1/5 of all large bags as &quot;boardings&quot;, that would add up to 500 false boardings per day from luggage.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
How do you figure that the train doesn&#8217;t have to know how many people boarded at SeaTac?  particularly, if you are saying that the trains don&#8217;t count deboardings at Westlake?  They have to count at at least one of the end stations for every train, don&#8217;t they? </p>
<p>At SeaTac, drivers board trains at the same time, through the same doors, as passengers.</p>
<p>If fare checkers check 1/4 of train cars, that is 125 cars per day (out of 500 car trips).  Three checkers times 125 cars equals 375 fare checkers counted as &#8220;boardings.&#8221;</p>
<p>Who knows how many large bags get counted as &#8220;boardings&#8221;?  If there are an average of 5 large bags per car, that would be a potential 2,500 false boardings.  If the automatic counters counted just 1/5 of all large bags as &#8220;boardings&#8221;, that would add up to 500 false boardings per day from luggage.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Norman</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102854</link>
		<dc:creator>Norman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 22:06:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102854</guid>
		<description>I rode the 194 to and from the airport today (Wednesday Feb. 3), and Metro had 2 men stationed at the airport bus stops (one at each bay) handing out literature explaining the changes in the bus schedules and answering questions about buses and how to use Link.  They were also giving Orca cards with no money on them to people who wanted them.  I listened for a few minutes, and it did seem that some bus riders did not know that the 194 was going to be discontinued starting this coming weekend.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
I rode the 194 to and from the airport today (Wednesday Feb. 3), and Metro had 2 men stationed at the airport bus stops (one at each bay) handing out literature explaining the changes in the bus schedules and answering questions about buses and how to use Link.  They were also giving Orca cards with no money on them to people who wanted them.  I listened for a few minutes, and it did seem that some bus riders did not know that the 194 was going to be discontinued starting this coming weekend.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: AJ</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102790</link>
		<dc:creator>AJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 17:57:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102790</guid>
		<description>Except more than a few of the &quot;young people&quot; I know are in their late 30s and early 40s.

Way to go, you &quot;old folk&quot;, your lasting legacy will go down in the history books. Right down there with seceding from the union.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
Except more than a few of the &#8220;young people&#8221; I know are in their late 30s and early 40s.</p>
<p>Way to go, you &#8220;old folk&#8221;, your lasting legacy will go down in the history books. Right down there with seceding from the union.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Ben Schiendelman</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102760</link>
		<dc:creator>Ben Schiendelman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 16:13:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102760</guid>
		<description>I was told in November that Link was up to some 50% ORCA use.

ST rail services will be higher than average in general for two reasons:

1) Offboard payment means the train leaves without you - there&#039;s an incentive to make your payment quick.

2) No transfers are issued - you&#039;re likely to want to transfer to/from a bus.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
I was told in November that Link was up to some 50% ORCA use.</p>
<p>ST rail services will be higher than average in general for two reasons:</p>
<p>1) Offboard payment means the train leaves without you &#8211; there&#8217;s an incentive to make your payment quick.</p>
<p>2) No transfers are issued &#8211; you&#8217;re likely to want to transfer to/from a bus.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Ben Schiendelman</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102757</link>
		<dc:creator>Ben Schiendelman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 16:09:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102757</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s not even clear if U-Pass will make it to ORCA this year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
It&#8217;s not even clear if U-Pass will make it to ORCA this year.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Ben Schiendelman</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102756</link>
		<dc:creator>Ben Schiendelman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 16:08:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102756</guid>
		<description>Um, like what we do with the sensors.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- google_ad_section_start --><br />
Um, like what we do with the sensors.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
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		<title>By: Ben Schiendelman</title>
		<link>http://seattletransitblog.com/2010/02/02/ridership-error-in-your-favor/#comment-102755</link>
		<dc:creator>Ben Schiendelman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 16:08:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://seattletransitblog.com/?p=12033#comment-102755</guid>
		<description>The fact that it&#039;s still news basically just shows that outreach is good for some people, but for the most part, you just have to do things and let people figure it out.</description>
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The fact that it&#8217;s still news basically just shows that outreach is good for some people, but for the most part, you just have to do things and let people figure it out.<!-- google_ad_section_end --></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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