Here’s a more couple of thoughts post-Prop. 1, courtesy of other folks.
Erica C. Barnett (who seriously splices my words in her quotes of me, but whatever):
The economy may be bad, but people are optimistic; and optimistic people are capable of seeing beyond the next year or two (and beyond their narrow interests.) The era of big road-building projects is over. The voters know that, and they want alternatives. They got them Tuesday night.
I’m not sure I agree that the era of big road-building is over, we still have the 520-bridge to build. But the point is mostly correct.
Here’s the one that got me the most, from Chris Vance:
“The thing that we’ve been debating my entire lifetime is over. We are going to build light rail,” said Chris Vance, a former state Republican Party chairman not involved in the contest. To him, the outcome reflects human nature. People like trains
Emphasis added. We’ve been debating this my grandfather’s whole life in Seattle, and he moved here in 1928. There was a subway plan for Seattle in the 1920s that never materialized.
Mark Baerwaldt Quote:
NoToProp1 campaign treasurer Mark Baerwaldt predicts an “enormous rejection,” saying little in the plan has changed to convince voters to reverse their decision of a year ago.
Little changed except getting rid of that whole roads part.
Mark Baerwaldt before the election:
Mark Baerwaldt, treasurer of notoprop1.org, downplayed the effect of the top-right slot. “It’s not going to be close,” he said, predicting a rout by his side.
He was right, it wasn’t close.
I’m am also proud that I-985 went down in flames. The electorate did their research!
yeah they did. I thought I-985 sounded good enough to the ill-formed that it would pass, but it got killed.
Never underestimate the power of the composition of the electorate. While the “yes” side picked up a lot of urban votes by dropping the roads, it is unclear how much that may have been offset by the loss of suburban votes owing to the absence of the roads package. In reality, I believe “yes” got a whole lot more votes from the people who DID NOT turn out in 2007, then it did from people changing their minds.
That being said, polling shortly after Prop 1 2007 showed that EITHER the rail OR the roads portion of that package would have passed on its own. In short, a lot of rail fans are more anti-road than they are pro-rail, and a lot of road fans are more anti-rail then they are pro-road. I, for example, voted “no” last year and “yes” this year.
These are two things to keep in mind for the future:
1.) If we want to pass another levy, put it on the ballot in a Presidential election year. The off-year electorate is older, more conservative, and much more anti-tax than the on-year electorate.
2.) Don’t bundle tax increases. People want to express themselves separately on different issues.