I find reading and thinking about the future of suburbs endlessly fascinating, particularly when it involves suburbs turning into medium or high-density urban environments. This interview with Christopher Leinberger brings up two of my three favorite talking points on the subject: how suburbs can transform themselves and what is happening in Tyson’s Corner (the third is Downtown Bellevue, which I think most people get way wrong).
A couple of quotes below the fold, though I recommend reading the whole thing. Continue reading “What will happen to suburbs?”
Over the last few weeks both Metro and ST have released early ridership numbers that, of course, break all records:
“Estimates show 118 million trips were taken on Metro buses in 2008 – a seven percent increase over 2007,” Metro Press Release.
“Last year we carried 16.1 million passengers in our Sound Transit trains and buses, which is up 17 percent, or more than 2 million riders from a year earlier,” Sound Transit’s CEO Report.
My route (#8) has definitely been less crowded since this past Summer’s crunch loads that came with high gas prices (or maybe just good weather). It’s worth noting that service is not growing with the ridership, unfortunately, and Metro may be forced to cut service without additional revenue.
Martin noted the cost and ridership numbers Sound Transit and the PSRC came up in a study of commuter rail on the Eastside BNSF lines. Comparing these numbers to previous estimates by pro-Eastside BNSF groups and to the costs of the services Sound Transit is operating or planning to, it becomes apparent that passenger rail service on that line is never going to materialize.
The State legislature mandated Sound Transit and the PSRC study the corridor after Cascadia Center of the Discovery Institute – a pro-Eastside BNSF Rail, anti-light rail group – studied the corridor and said they would be able to build commuter rail on the line with $278 million in capitol costs and a $15.4 million operations with a 5,000 rider projection, which is the same “baseline” estimate Sound Transit had in their study. Other groups came up with similar estimates, for example HDR Engineering said it would take $225~$250 million in capital costs. At these prices building the line seemed very cheap, the operation costs were just a bit more than those of Sounder’s and the whole package seemed like a good deal.
Then comes the Sound Transit PSRC study, which says what I’ve been saying all along: this isn’t as cheap as it looks. At $1.1~$1.3 billion, it costs more than all capital expenditures for Sounder, and some of those aren’t even finished yet: the transit center at Tukwila Station, the D-to-M street bypass, among others, haven’t been completed. Even short of these rider-generating improvements, Sounder has more riders for the cost than the BNSF rail line.
The operations costs of the line are staggering as well. At a cost $24 million per annum (the low estimate) and 6,000 riders per day (the highest estimate, the one that includes truncating bus service on 405), the service costs more than three times as much per rider as East Link will. East Link is supposed to get a little more than 45,000 riders per day, operate 20 hours a day, and have an $80 million annual operating budget. The “average” case, ie, the baseline ridership estimate for the BNSF line (5015 riders per day) and the middle range of the operating costs ($27 million), has a per rider cost that is higher than that of Sounder North, which has been widely criticized for its extreme costs. Put another way, the Eastside BNSF is $16 a trip at the cheapest, and $22 in the average case, and over $30 per trip in the worst case.
Even if there was serious interest there is no money. Sound Transit has put aside less than 5% of the capital costs. It would be amazing if a generous benefactor or a group of investors gave $1 billion for the line, but that won’t happen. A private investor might have been willing to put in $200 million if the operating costs were $15.4 million a year and there was a subsidy, but no investor would put $1 billion to build a train line that will cost at least $16 a trip to operate.
In summary, the BNSF was supposed to be a good deal: it was supposed to cost a lot less to build than Light Rail and get a good number of riders. Proponents said through a public-private partnership, it would take very little public money to build rail there, and that in comparison East Link was a bad investment. The were clearly wrong, BNSF Eastside Rail costs far too much to build, and still to much to operate. There’s no hope of a public-private partnership here, and thus there’s no hope of a rail line.
To comply with a legislative directive, Sound Transit and the Puget Sound Regional Council conducted a preliminary feasibility study of Eastside Commuter Rail, the results of which were published last month. There’s a summary here (pdf), and you can wade into the gory detail here.
For those of you not paying attention, through a bit of financial kabuki the Port of Seattle worked a deal to purchase the BNSF rail line highlighted at left for use as a trail and (possibly) a commuter rail corridor.
The Sound Transit 2 package budgeted a $50 million contribution to the capital costs of a line if a private operator agreed to assume the other costs. If no such partnership materialized, the $50 million would be redirected towards buses in the I-405 corridor.
The report predicts (and these numbers are very preliminary) that ridership could be as high as 6,000 per day, with capital costs of $1-1.3 billion, and annual operating costs of $24-32 million. Those numbers are based on running 33 trains per day in each direction on weekdays. This volume is possible because, unlike our current Sounder trips, passenger trains here wouldn’t play second fiddle to BNSF freight. By comparison, the currently planned Sounder trips, when complete, will have cost less than $1 billion in capital and about $30 million a year to run.
If a partner can be found to take ST’s $50 million and cover the other billion, this project could be an absolute steal for the region. If you look at ST’s most recent ridership report, South Sounder averaged 9,296 boardings per weekday and North Sounder a mere 1,132. It’s true that they have far fewer than 33 round trips per day, but they cover the highest-ridership periods, and the scheduling issues with BNSF can’t merely be wished away. $50 million to increase Sounder ridership by 50-60% would absolutely be worth it.
However, the requirement for a private investor is a hugely difficult one. Even with a ticket in the $10-20 range, it will take decades for an operator to merely recover the capital expenditure, to say nothing of debt service and operating costs.
Furthermore, although the cost estimate does include replacement of the entire track, the study did not evaluate all bridges along the route, some of which raise serious concerns. Inevitably, as mitigation costs to litigious neighbors start spiraling, we’ll see those costs rise.
Note also that the area under study does not extend through downtown Renton to connect with the existing Sounder line. Even if money were found to pay a larger public share, a significant segment of the line is outside the Sound Transit district and therefore would require funding from a non-Sound Transit source.
Since Eastside commuter rail has often been used as a stick to hit East Link, it’s also worthwhile to point out that East Link, while costing between $2.8 and $4.5 billion, is conservatively estimated to result in about 45,000 riders per day.
I haven’t yet reviewed anything but the summary, but feel free to post nuggets from the main report in the comments.
Brian Bundridge previously reported the $1 billion cost estimate here. The blog had a collective roundtable on the subject (without the benefit of a professional study) in two longposts.
If you use MyBus.org to track Metro buses you may have noticed some downtown or slowdowns recently. While waiting for MyBus to regain its footing, you can check out One Bus Away. OBA uses the same back-end technology, but supports tracking at every bus stop that Metro serves and is a bit easier to use than MyBus. It also supports iPhone, SMS, and even calling into a computer that talks to you.
While this isn’t in our region, a passenger was caught riding on the outside of Caltrain today. The passenger was riding in between the cars. While this isn’t as crazy or suicidal as the guy who rode the TGV and ICE at 186mph…it still is amazing and puzzling that people would be insane enough to pull it off.
For me, whom has ridden on the side of a railcar (legally) I get nervous at 10-15mph. 70+ is an entirely different level. Photo by lazytom
The PI Police Blog has the scoop that a bus driver on the 42 route has been selling drugs on the bus for the last few weeks. The good news is that the 42 bus is being abolished when Light Rail opens, and the Link cars have cameras and locking doors between the drivers and the passengers, so no drugs will pass back and forth.
The New York Times is reporting that the House and Senate are close to reaching a deal on a final version of the stimulus plan, even ahead of the Conference Committee. The Times reports that there is $789 billion in tax cuts and spending. It’s too early to say what exactly is in the bill, the Times says the ridiculous car-purchase tax breaks and home-purchase tax loans have been “sharply reduced”. I’d say this is an improvement as long as transportation isn’t cut, since much of what is in the bill will not stimulate the economy and isn’t really worth putting into law.
Not everyone’s happy:
Some critics also suggested that the final figure was too small to be effective because of the grave condition of the American economy.
“I am not happy with it,” said Senator Tom Harkin, Democrat of Iowa. “You are not looking at a happy camper. I mean, they took a lot of stuff out of education. They took it out of health, school construction and they put it more into tax issues.”
Mr. Harkin said he was particularly frustrated by the money being spent on fixing the alternative minimum tax. “It’s about 9 percent of the whole bill,” he said, “which we were going to do later this year in a tax bill. Why is it in there? It has nothing to do with stimulus. It has nothing to do with recovery. This makes no sense whatsoever.”
Today in Flordia, President Obama said this about transportation:
It’s imagining new transportation systems. I’d like to see high speed rail where it can be constructed. I would like for us to invest in mass transit because potentially that’s energy efficient. And I think people are a lot more open now to thinking regionally…
The days where we’re just building sprawl forever, those days are over. I think that Republicans, Democrats, everybody… recognizes that’s not a smart way to design communities. So we should be using this money to help spur this sort of innovative thinking when it comes to transportation.
That will make a big difference.
Good stuff! Except, the last time I loved something Obama said, it was “[W]e will create millions of jobs by making the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s”. Now the stimulus doesn’t contain all that much transit as a portion of the overall bill, about 1%, but transit could see money more in future budgets.
The Senate has approved their version of the stimulus plan in a 61-37 vote. All Democrats and three Republicans – Senator Arlen Specter, of Pennsylvania, and Senators Olympia J. Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine – voted yes, with the remaining Republicans present voting no. Judd Gregg (R-NH) was not present for the vote, and a winner in Minnesota Senate race between Al Frankin and Norm Coleman has not yet been seated.
Because the Constitution requires that both Houses of Congress pass the same bill, the next step is for the Conference Committee to meet and resolve the differences between the House and Senate versions. Senator Specter has stated that he wants most of the what was in the Senate version to come back from Conference, which could mean the bill will look more like the Senate version in the end. Both Houses have to vote a final time before the bill can be sent to the President to sign into law, and without a 60-seat majority in the Senate, the Democrats will need at least two Republican votes to end debate and avoid a filibuster.
Friday the Transport Politic had a nice chart showing the differences between the House and Senate bills on Amtrak and transit, and I’ve reproduced it here.
Program
Passed House Bill
Proposed Senate Bill
Grants to Amtrak
$800 m
$850 m
Grants to States for Rail
$300 m
$250 m
High-Speed Rail
0
$2 b
Total Rail
$1.1 b
$3.1 b
Transit Formula Funds
$7.5 b
$8.4 b
Fixed Guideway Modernization
$2 b
0
New Starts
$2.5 b
0
Total Transit
$12 b
$8.4 b
Discretionary Grants
0
$5.5 b
I wonder how transit will fare in the “discretionary grant” programs. It’d be the first chance to see Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood in action and find out if he’s just another road warrior. Personally, I’d rather see Congress fund New Starts – which give cash to local transit projects – than High Speed Rail. Which would you rather see?
Update: Here’s a comparison of the timelines and levels of spending and tax cuts between the two versions of the bill.
Amtrak Cascades, by Stephen Rees
Here’s a killer news round-up:
Amtrak is working to get a second train to BC, but is getting the run-around from the Canadian Government. The Canadians want to charge $1500 a day for customs and immigration services for the train, and while that might not sound like a lot, Amtrak does not have a massive budget and doesn’t want to pay the fee. You’d think the Canadians would see the benefits of the additional tourism dollars, especially with the Olympics coming, but so far no progress has been made in getting the fee waived..
The P-I mentions that the state legislature is becoming a major hurdle in getting an MVET to pay for the increased bus service that King County wanted as a part of the viaduct construction. With Ron Sims in DC, who’ll fight for it?
The PI also takes a jab at the 20-40-40 rule in discussing a Municipal League Report that argued for Metro to take a serious look at its finances.
Metro will also have to “squeeze every ounce of productivity and service out of limited resources.” That will require re-examining a highly political formula that has been designating most new service for far-flung, low ridership suburbs. It should also bring much more serious attention to labor costs.
Well put. I agree its remarkable that Metro hasn’t yet cut service.
This is sort of a sad story of a woman who was forced to move from her home to make way for the Capitol Hill light rail station. It isn’t like she didn’t get paid a fair price for her house, or have it come as a surprise, since Sound Transit notified her more than 10 years ago.
The stimulus being debated in Congress right now isn’t the be-all and end-all of the Democrats’ transportation plans. The real stuff, as I’ve said before, will come with the reauth of the SAFETEA-LU act later this year. The Transport Politic lays out what it might look like.
The biggest deal here is a change in the cost-effectiveness metric used to award transit capital grants. As I understand it (somebody I’m sure will correct me if I’m wrong), the current metric doesn’t account for things like transit oriented development or the other ways in which rail transit has been proven to bring in new riders. But that may change, and that would be huge.
Combine that with the Dodd-Hagel infrastructure bank and you’ve got the makings of a kick-ass federal transit development program.
Dan Simmering took a photo on 02-08-2009 of one of the Amtrak Cascades trainsets that was heavily vandalized in Seattle. The train got spray painted and several windows broken out of it. The picture shows the train leaving Tacoma after getting some work done at Coast Engine and Equipment Company He was nice enough to share this image with us.
It is unknown when this trainset will be repainted, it is currently out of service for its refurbishment.
Publicola, which is the best addition to the local blogosphere in recent memory, has a great piece about how Rep Jay Inslee (D-WA) is working to ensure pro-environment voices are heard in the stimulus conversation as co-chair of the Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition. I’m kind of surprised that no Republicans are in the 35 member committee, but I guess they are working against the stimulus at the moment, so it would be odd for a Republican to fight for projects in a bill he’s oging to vote against.
This is very misleading. First, there’s the ridiculous claim that 30% of garbage sent to landfills is from building demolition. Next, there’s the bizarre “scientific explanation” for how a cut-down tree releases all its carbon into the atmosphere (only when it’s burned…). Then there’s an argument that light rail is pushing up residential and retail rents, so we should build fewer homes and store fronts. Huh? What happened to supply and demand? But the grand finale is that building density around light rail stations is going to force people to drive. You can’t make this stuff up.
Vivace is up and running in the Brix condo building on Mercer after having to move from the old place on John to make way for the Capitol Hill Station construction. Everyone seems happy, so I am too.
When we last left Bellevue real-estate developer Kemper Freeman, he was telling us that we didn’t need light rail to Bellevue, our highways and buses were just fine, thanks!
Now we learn that Freeman’s company is looking to make use of a helipad on top of Bellvue Square that’s been sitting dormant for 20 years. The reason for the increased interest in helicopter travel won’t surprise you:
The Freeman family, which controls Kemper and built Bellevue Place, Bellevue Square and Lincoln Square, has a longstanding interest in helicopters, Hill says, and it figured the pad might be useful someday.
It’s been used twice, he says, and the time seems right to prepare for more frequent use. Kemper is seeking a permit to allow up to three takeoffs and three landings daily, and up to 200 of each per year.
Why gear up for regular operations now? Because, with traffic getting worse, the helistop will provide another way to get in and out of downtown Bellevue for at least a few people, Hill says. Plus it’s an amenity that could appeal to some prospective office tenants.
In other words, Freeman does believe in the effectiveness of grade-separated transit, but only for him and his rich buddies. Everyone else should be forced to sit in traffic.
If I were Bellevue, I’d offer Freeman and his company a deal: you can have your helipad, in exchange for, oh, say… $1 billion to build a light rail tunnel under your mall.
One way to appreciate the extent to which Sound Transit is a pretty clean agency is to understand the sheer volume of documents they put on the web for public consumption. Given the local media’s inclination to seize on any piece of news and spin it negatively, the fact that most of it passes without any real comment is a good indicator.
The latest omnibus document on their website is the agency progress report, which goes into gory detail about virtually every project ST has its fingers in. If the Citizen Oversight Panel report wasn’t geeky enough for you, this is the one to read.
There aren’t a ton of surprises: LINK is still on time. There are still 8 days of “float” built into Airport Link’s 31 December start date, so the irrationally optimistic can hope that they’re able to support holiday travelers.
Apparently, ORCA was scheduled to “go live” on March 1 and have “full acceptance” on October 1, but given the late hour that appears likely to slip.
If you like project management or know anything about civil engineering, it might be worth a read.
I’ve been informed that I neglected to link to the survey for Sound Transit’s proposed 2009-10 service changes. I’d guess that since it’s basically a South King and Pierce show, with some impacts in West Seattle, the great transit heartland up by the ship canal isn’t all that interested.
Nevertheless, if you’re at all affected please let them know your opinion.
Although it remains murky whether or not we will finally, forever be rid of the viaduct, it’s never too early to start arguing about what should replace it.
Poplar Pt. proposal, from flickr user stirlingr
One thing I’m sure we’ll see is a push to turn a large part of it into open space. After all, open space is accessible to anyone, while housing and offices are enjoyed by a relative few. GreaterGreaterWashington, which is basically the Washington, DC equivalent of STB and hugeasscity combined, came out against extensive open space in a very large redevelopment going on in Anacostia. He even trots out the Jane Jacobs:
In orthodox [modernist] city planning, neighborhood open spaces are venerated in an amazingly uncritical fashion, much as savages venerate magical fetishes [sic]. Ask a houser how his planned neighborhood improves on the old city and he will cite, as a self-evident virtue, More Open Space. Ask a zoner about the improvements in progressive codes and he will cite, again as a self-evident virtue, their incentives toward leaving More Open Space. Walk with a planner through a dispirited neighborhood and though it be already scabby with deserted parks and tired landscaping festooned with an old Kleenex, he will envision a future of More Open Space.
More Open Space for what? For muggings? For bleak vacuums between buildings? Or for ordinary people to use and enjoy? But people do not use city open space just because it is there and because city planners wish they would.
There certainly is a place for mega-parks like New York’s Central Park and our very own Arboretum. But the creation of urban “green space” should always be measured against the fact that it will displace people, ultimately causing the destruction of genuine natural habitat.
