
This recent paper from the Brookings Institute’s Elizabeth Kneebone on so-called “Jobs Sprawl” is both interesting and slightly maddening. The “Jobs Sprawl” analysis is an attempt to measure the percentage of jobs in an employment area located near downtown (within three miles of the “center city”, defined arbirtrarily), sort of near downtown (three to ten miles away) and not at all near downtown (ten or more miles away). The paper notes that since the last study, in 2001, more jobs are being located outside of downtowns nationwide.
Seattle ranks as the tenth most “decentralized” major employment center, that is, the major employment with the tenth highest percentage of jobs located ten miles or more from the city center. In 2006, the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area had approximately 1,461,291 jobs, and 19.1% were within three miles of the center of the city, 24.8% were between three and ten miles away, and 56.0% were more than ten miles away. Seattle is also “rapidly decentralizing”, since the number of jobs being created more than ten miles away from the “center city” has grown much faster than the number of jobs within three miles of the heart of the city.
While that’s interesting, I have a serious problem with this analysis in that the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area has more than one downtown. Any job downtown Tacoma or Downtown Bellevue, since both are more than ten miles away from Third and Seneca or whatever is the center of Downtown Seattle, are “decentralized”, which means “job sprawl” according to Kneebone. And similarly any job in the University District is more than miles away from that point and is thus not centralized or decentralized. Having many centers may mean Seattle is “decentralized” – in fact that may be the very definition of “decentralized” – but that’s a pretty crummy definition of “jobs sprawl”. A job in North Bend is sprawled-out, a job in Downtown Tacoma or Downtown Bellevue certainly is not.
The Austin Contrarian has some other problems with the study, including a problem with the three and ten mile ‘polls’ used.













