All posts by Martin H. Duke

Sound Transit 3 is not going to match the stellar project delivery record of Sound Transit 2 barring a bailout from another government or the economy. In attempt to understand the cost estimation failures that got us to this point, on June 24th ST accepted the report of consultants asked to investigate why (report, slides, video).

The report points out parts of ST’s own cost estimation methodology that it did not follow during initial project estimation in 2015 and 2016. In particular, ST did not seek a second opinion on costs and did not sufficiently invovle its own Real Estate division in determining acquisition costs.

It’s a long report and hard to summarize. It identified eight key drivers of the increases between “phase 1” and “phase 2” estimates, and was able to assign a subjective importance to five of them:

Last night’s Seattle Subway/STB mayoral forum was narrowly focused on transit and land use issues. The moderator, Publicola‘s Erica C. Barnett, did a tremendous job keeping things on time and on track. As with most forums of this nature, the fundamental tension was between questions trying to elicit an interesting response and candidates trying not to say anything too interesting.

Watching the one-hour video is probably worth your time. If not, here are some impressions.

We’re proud to co-sponsor a mayoral forum with a focus on transit and land use issues with Seattle Subway, tonight at 7pm. The seven candidates are Andrew Grant Houston, Jessyn Farrell, Lorena González, Lance Randall, Colleen Echohawk, Casey Sixkiller, and Bruce Harrell.

It will stream online on Facebook (Seattle Subway page), Twitter (@SeattleSubway), and here at the blog. You can also register in order to view it on Zoom and potentially get a question in.

You can join as early as 6pm.

Many thanks to Erica Barnett of Publicola for moderating.

• Photos of OMF-E
• Seattle the fastest growing large city ($) in 2020, maybe not dead yet
• Farewell to the 47? not so fast
• A pickpocket lurking on Metro
• U-Pass could return this fall
• Jefferson Transit considers new route to Kingston Ferry
• Checking in on Steven Brown ($), engineer on the fateful Amtrak crash
• Kevin Desmond moving along into consulting
• The problem with free transit

This is an open thread.

• East Link Operations and Maintenance Facility (OMF) now complete
• Streetside cafes may become permanent
• Upzone Roosevelt again
• Sound Transit files appeal against new Lake Forest Park rules that would make the BRT parking garage more expensive
• Checking on Trailhead Direct
• Lizz checks in on Graham St.
• City of Bellevue chooses to fund lawsuit on behalf of pro-parking group
• Parking rate adjustments coming June 1
• Skagit Transit back to full service ($) next month
• Amtrak trips coming back
• Inslee vetoes bits of a bill ($) that delay climate implementation; lawsuits to follow

This is an open thread.

Starting June 1st, the first youth ORCA a child gets is free with proof of age. Subsequent cards (to replace ones lost or stolen) still cost $5. This now matches the policy for the Regional Reduced Fare Permit.

Youth cards are available at customer service offices, or more conveniently via mail.

This continues the gradual ratchet of reducing and eliminating fares without threatening the core of revenue provided by employer passes. Through low income fares, ultra-low-income fares, free passes for Seattle Public Schools students, and periodic ORCA giveaways, there are many ways to chip away at what for most is already a modest fare bill.

Homelessness is a complicated problem for which STB, with its narrow transit-and-land-use focus, would not claim to propose a full solution. [1] The proposal in Seattle Charter Amendment 29 (“Compassion Seattle“), which may be on the ballot later this year, attracts the usual complaints from those who insist on zero tolerance or zero coercion. Money for housing is good, though unfunded spending mandates aren’t so good.

But, like any worthwhile op-ed, this anti-amendment argument ($) by three former Councilmembers gives us enough information to learn there is at least one piece that I feel qualified to say is very good:

· CA 29 waives the land use code to site housing projects. Zoning, height limits, setbacks, greenbelt designations, notice and “due process” will not apply. This means new housing units or multifamily projects could be added in all zones, including single family.

and indeed, right there in the fifth bullet of Section 1:

Heidi Groover takes a break from the scary ” home” price beat to point out that it isn’t all that hard to buy a condo in Seattle ($).

There is a lot of media directed at people shopping for single family homes, but the number of possible houses within a certain distance of Seattle is finite. It’s natural for a growing metropolitan area to have a center city where single family homes become rarer, and the only way out is to allow denser forms of housing. Despite shortcomings,, Groover’s reporting suggests policy is basically working to provide ownership opportunities.

More reporting like this, please. Single-family homes will be a less important part of the market, and statistics that reflect that will be critical to understanding how our policy mix is working.

• New Link trains!
• NE 43rd Street looks amazing
• PSRC selecting comment on 7 transit projects
• SDOT’s got new mobility study results
• ST still arguing about realignment
• Trailhead Direct ($) resumes June 5th
• PSRC hosts a session on equity in planning
• ST survey on a TOD opportunity in Des Moines
• Minneapolis eliminates parking requirements — get on it, Seattle
• Commuter rail should do better
• Homelessness is about housing ($) — including “luxury” housing

This is an open thread.

• Metro rehiring 200 part-time operators
• Meet Kitsap’s newest oldest ferry
• Metro gearing up ($) for near normalcy
• Will U-Pass suspension continue through the summer?
• Northgate Link service change formally approved ($) by King County Council; only Dembowski against
• Ferry Wenatchee will be broken for months
• Jetty Island ferry ($) returning July 5th
• Seattle VLF will be mostly about bridge maintenance; many activists disappointed
• Take Metro’s benchmarking survey
• Route 44 design to 60%
• Downtown office space demand is back ($)
• Reps. Marilyn Strickland and Cathy McMorris Rodgers co-sponsoring a good TOD bill
• Sen. Cantwell wants to remove more train crossings ($)

This is an open thread.

• Move Seattle has a public dashboard
• TCC is hiring
• Also a quarterly report on Reconnect West Seattle
• Judkins Park gets Jimi Hendrix themed art
• Comment on the Federal Way station design
• There’s going to be a new bus layover facility on Eastlake Avenue
• Sen. Joe Nguyen (D-West Seattle) will challenge Dow Constantine for King County Executiye, the most single most important office for local transit
• Claudia Balducci is the new president of the PSRC
• It was a historic legislative session but not a big one for transportation, unless they later pass a package and thus the carbon legislation takes effect
• RapidRide I (Renton/Auburn) to have 3 tiers of station quality
• Nobody wants to be displaced for a Link maintenance facility, but a former Auburn Mayor is thinking clearly about the problem
• Here come the curbless streets
• Who gets what from the stimulus
• Provide feedback on parking and curb space near Roosevelt
• Americans should learn more about rail from other countries

This is an open thread.

April 30th is the deadline for the public to comment on Sound Transit’s various options to make up for the current mismatch in projected costs and revenues for ST3. Here’s where we stand:

There is no effect on the Sound Transit 2 projects (Link to Lynnwood, Redmond, and Federal Way) and these are expected to arrive in accordance with current schedules, and roughly 1-2 years after the timeline voters were given in 2008.

Updates to the economic model have reduced the funding gap from $11.5 billion to “only” $7.9 billion. $527m from the first Biden stimulus, plus $4.6 billion more in projected tax revenue is partially offset by $595m more in cost inflation. The NE 130th St Station alone has increased $64m as engineering went from 30 to 60%.

This handy graph shows how other considerations have more than made up for lower tax receipts, and it’s exploding capital costs that have put the project in doubt:

• You have until April 30th to tell ST what to prioritize during “realignment”
• A long and nuanced look at the MHA program
• Stephen Fesler says to cut Paine Field from Link and run BRT instead
• Artists will design limited-edition ORCA cards
• Amtrak restoring local trips next month
• Wayfinding updates at ST
• Legislature passes ban on gasoline car sales after 2030
• Tiny houses coming to the U-District
• Bickering over the carbon pricing model is less important than passing one

This is an open thread.

• West Seattle bridge privileges are slowly expanding
• WSDOT restriping northbound I-5 chokepoint through downtown
• Federal Way track construction underway
• I’ve always wanted the gondola people to get traction but am sad it took rail skepticism to get them there
• Oregon congressman to insist on light rail across the Columbia

This is an open thread.

On Friday, Sound Transit announced that Northgate, Roosevelt, and U-District stations will open for service on Saturday, October 2nd. There is no word about any celebration for what, with luck, will be a nice symbol of our emergence from the pandemic. We might not get one, with ST having endured bad-faith critiques about marketing expenses for the U-Link opening, and potential public health restrictions lingering.

It is a cause for celebration. The U-District is an obvious place to put a subway station. Roosevelt is the rare fashionable neighborhood where some growth is legal. Northgate is simultaneously a transportation hub, a blank slate for major redevelopment, and a logical interim terminus for buses coming from further north. Link will provide an alternative to the very worst bit of I-5 congestion, 5 minutes to the U-District and 13 to Westlake.

Better yet, this is the first major Link deliverable from the Sound Transit 2 vote in 2008. It arrives only one year after the proposed date at election time (2020). Combined with East Link 1-2 years late (with City of Bellevue dithering) in 2022 or 2023, and Lynnwood and Federal Way also a year late in 2024, ST2 is going to have an excellent delivery record after weathering an unprecedented recession, far better than Sound Transit 1 and a testament to the abilities of former CEO Joni Earl (2001-2015).

ST3, in year 5, is already in quite a bit of trouble on these terms. Thanks to poor cost estimation, the most likely outcome is some major projects suffering a couple of years delay, and either a large new infusion of cash or the other projects sliding over a decade.

• Feds send $60m for RapidRide G — in theory they can finally start construction in 2021 and open in 2024
• $37m for the Swift Orange Line, too
• Legislature about to remove obstacles to ST implementation of a less punitive fare enforcement system
• Metro gets fresher air
• Monorail gets updates ($) before they release the Kraken
• Open House about access to Lakewood and South Tacoma Sounder
• Some transit activists criticizing the big transpo bill
• Metro phasing in more crowded vehicles
• A progress report on the Northgate ped bridge
• Plans at Lynnwood Transit Center
• Guessing how the Biden infrastructure push ($) could affect Puget Sound
• A summary of Move Seattle work in 2020
• Who needs the CCC when you can have the Infinity Bus

This is an open thread.

As Sound Transit grapples with escalating costs for ST3, one emerging option focuses on delaying parking construction to prioritize transit. In the past month and a half, we have:

• WSDOT Secretary Roger Millar’s most righteous February 25th letter demolishing the importance of parking to a transit system
• The Sound Transit Board reviewing a “Delay Parking Not Yet Designed” scenario (see slide above) at its March 25th meeting
• An April 4th executive committee review of nuances of parking in ST3

Delaying parking has a number of advantages. It allows ST to complete the “lines on the map” that captivated most voters with the least delay. Parking is an expensive way to acquire riders, averaging $128,000 per net new space in ST3. By comparison, upzoning and selling the land to a market-rate developer adds riders and is revenue positive.

• Comment on the equity aspects of Northgate Link
• Alon Levy explains why Pacific Northwest HSR is marginal based on the return on investment
• BLM buses
• Longer pedestrian signals ($)
• ST contractor was defrauding its workers
• Here’s a good primer on there is no substitute for building more units
• Shoreline apartments popping up everywhere
• Metro’s survey on transit needs in Skyway
• An update on Everett Transit merger options ($)
• 26 minutes on the new Southworth foot ferry ($)
• Good that SeaTac may reduce parking requirements but the Downtown Chicago comparison is… overheated
• But “modest upzones” around Seattle’s nearby Link stations
• State transportation budget may just focus on the basics
• Jarrett Walker is hiring in Portland

This is an open thread.

• SDOT has prioritized its spending plan for the new $20 Vehicle License fee; comment by 3/30
• Maybe the feds will bail us out on the West Seattle Bridge
• New startup will let you lease an e-scooter
• Surprise: anti-rail Washington Policy Center doesn’t like bus improvements either
• PT service ($) starting to recover
• Hilltop Tacoma Link now 75% complete
• Vancouver, WA transit activists getting organized
• Seattle Process starts for Fauntleroy Dock replacement
• Meet Washington’s traffic safety honcho
• Amtrak is liable ($) for the 2017 Dupont crash
• Beyond “ridership” and “coverage”, there’s “access“
• Learning to love the bus ($)
• If Alon Levy is HSR fantasy mapping, it’s not really a fantasy anymore
• Transit marketing is simply different

This is an open thread.