Light Rail in the West: Neat!

This post originally appeared on Orphan Road.

Danny Westneat says light rail is teh awesome and we will totally love it once we get off our collective derriers and start riding:

It didn’t take more than two minutes for me to be impressed. That’s how long I waited to catch my first train in downtown Portland.

In two days of riding the rails, on 14 different trains, the longest I waited for one to come was eight minutes. That was at 11 on a Sunday night.

The longest any of my trains spent stopped at a station was 25 seconds — even when 75 rush-hour commuters tried to board a crowded train at once. I’ve waited much longer for a single rider to get on a Seattle bus, fumbling for change or arguing with the driver.

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London Calling

This post originally appeared on Orphan Road.

Last night at Pub Quiz, Matt and I lost first place because neither of us knew that Jennifer Lopez’s subway-inspired album was named On the 6. I maintained that it would have been a lot cooler if she named it “Hammersmith and City,” because, as we all know, London has the best-named subway lines on the planet. Sadly, “Jenny from the Block” is no globe-trotter.

Anyway, speaking of London, Autopia has some solid reporting on the new Crossrail project, which will be, as I understand, the first suburban commuter rail that starts on one side of the city and goes all the way through to the other. Previously you had to get off in downtown, transfer to the tube, then pick up another commuter rail on the other side of town.

This sounds sorta obvious, I guess, but you have to consider that London’s suburban service is built on a model where everyone lives in the ‘burbs and commutes into the downtown core. Needless to say that’s no longer the case (*cough* 520 bridge, *cough*). The cool thing about Sound Transit’s Link is that it connect hubs like downtown Seattle, Northgate, Redmond, and Bellevue.

Unlike East Link, however, the Crossrail project will be up and running by 2017.

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Jim Ellis On Sunday

I know I am super late on this, but this part made me cry so I had this in “saved draft” stage until five minutes ago:

He goes back to the 1968 transit vote that was part of another Ellis legacy, Forward Thrust, and one of his bitterest losses.

“We were ahead in the polls, right up to the last three weeks,” he said. “Then, some very clever ads came out, and one day General Motors showed up with a large trailer-truck. It had a huge window and inside was a chrome-plated jet engine, and the sign said something like, ‘This is the engine of the future. It will make buses faster than trains!’

“No one would ever put a jet engine in a bus, but people didn’t know that and we slowly lost the vote for transit. That was in 1968. If the people had voted for it — eventually it would have been 80 percent paid by the federal government — the system would have been finished in 1985, at three times the size of the one before voters this November. And the last payment for it would have been in 2008.”

Ellis believes this year’s transit-and-roads package should pass. He has seen it all: the bickering, the fighting, the turf, the mental gymnastics of a region emerging from a small town to a roaring city.

“The city has to come around to this,” he said. “Seattle is now the best it has ever been; just look at the vitality of downtown. But if Seattle pauses, it will decline and another city will come along to take its place.”

And later: “Seattle is so ideally positioned for the future,” he said. “The waterfront should be a wonderful attraction. Great cities do not have their streets destroyed by vehicles. I know that the local Sierra Club is against the November vote. I’m ashamed of them, and it will come back to haunt them.”

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Seoul Unveils Water Taxis


Seoul, South Korea is unveiling water taxis starting Thursday! The fee is about $5 ~ $60 depending on distance. The catch is the seven-person taxis will depart only if all seats are full. Otherwise, the passengers in the boat have to pay for the empty seats. Also, none of the subway stops are right next to the water, so there’s no quick change between different modes.

Still cool!

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Selling Congestion Pricing

This post originally appeared on Orphan Road.

CIS is thinking about how to message congestion pricing to road warriors. All the ideas he puts forward are intersting jujitsu moves — designed to use free-marketers own strengths against them.

Let me suggest another, that might be even simpler: congestion pricing is a use tax. Conservatives like use taxes. Many, for example, expect bus tickets to cover 100% of the cost of the bus (ignoring the fact that bus service has positive externalities that justify the taxpayer subsity). The common refrain I often hear is, “I’m never going to ride the bus, so why should I pay for it?”

Well, that argument cuts both ways. Congestion pricing simply lines up the supply and the demand to make you pay for what you use, as I’ve written before.

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Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt in full swing in the anti-prop 1 camp

First the fear:

Increased density. Displacement and interruption of businesses. Low incomes. High unemployment rates. Increased noise. Visual Blight. Crime. Will the Martin Luther King Way south neighborhood follow suit and show a resemblance to neighborhoods near Portland’s MAX line? Will crime statistics be far behind?

I thought most people considered increased density a good thing. But high unemployment caused by light rail? Crime caused by light rail? Are you kidding me? I barely even know how to respond to that argument. Light Rail will only increase access to jobs in the city’s core and the University District (the two highest employment centers in Seattle), and having tons of people walking around a neighborhood shouldn’t increase crime. The worst neighborhoods for crime in Seattle are those most isolated. Sure more people means more crime in total, but not on average. The argument is ridiculous.

Next the uncertainty, from John Niles of CETA

Do we want to double the bet on Sound Transit when the 1996 Sound Move Plan is reported in the most recent Sound Transit progress report to be only 50% complete? Is Prop 1 really just a bail out to cover the Sound Transit overruns that are supposedly old news? That would explain the seeming desperation to get Prop 1 passed and double transportation sales taxes beginning in 2008.

See the 50% completion number with your own eyes by clicking on the link at the top of the web page http://www.bettertransport.info/pitf/promises-v
s-reality.htm.

Yikes! There’s a lot of misinformation there. But the answer is no and no. John Niles and his friends at CETA are desperate to destroy Sound Transit, and Prop. 1 is their best chance for it. These guys spent years and tons of money to try to obstruct the process, get Sound Transit shut down, and get the car-tabs revenue taken away so they can come back and say “Look at all the trouble Sound Transit is having”. In reality, the trouble ended five years ago after the courts ruled Sound Transit should be allowed to stay and the car tab revenue with them.

Finally the doubt, from Erica “No Mind to Make Up” Barnett:

Prognostications about the future are just that—predictions that may or may not come true. It’s interesting to me that TCC and other environmental groups that support roads and transit assume nothing is set in stone about the roads side of the package (“Sure, we’re voting for roads, but only because we’ll take them out later!”) but are absolutely 100% rock-solid certain that Sound Transit will never be back on the ballot if this fails. Seems like serious cognitive dissonance to me.

Way to pick quotes to paint a specific picture! There is a pretty good chance that the so-called “cross-base highway” will not get built because there is no finally plan for that road. Some of what is in RTID, like the two-lane addition to I-405 and SR-520 assume that WSDOT will cough up money, and that we don’t know for sure. And Erica is forgetting that Ed Murray and others in the state legistlature have forced them onto the ballot this year for the exact reason that they don’t want to have to run their campaigns the same election year as the transit vote. We’ll see whether Sound Transit comes back on the ballot if Prop. 1 doesn’t pass, but I can assure you it will not come back on the ballot next year.

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Jim Ellis

This post originally appeared on Orphan Road.

Seattle’s ur-planner, age 86, reflects:

He goes back to the 1968 transit vote that was part of another Ellis legacy, Forward Thrust, and one of his bitterest losses.

“We were ahead in the polls, right up to the last three weeks,” he said. “Then, some very clever ads came out, and one day General Motors showed up with a large trailer-truck. It had a huge window and inside was a chrome-plated jet engine, and the sign said something like, ‘This is the engine of the future. It will make buses faster than trains!’

“No one would ever put a jet engine in a bus, but people didn’t know that and we slowly lost the vote for transit. That was in 1968. If the people had voted for it — eventually it would have been 80 percent paid by the federal government — the system would have been finished in 1985, at three times the size of the one before voters this November. And the last payment for it would have been in 2008.”

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P-I endores Prop 1

The better of the two dailies has endorsed Prop 1 in this rather guarded editorial:

For those who want more mass transit but no new roads, we hear you. We also empathize with those who fret about the sales tax increases, car tabs and the potential for light rail extensions and roads proposed by the package to cost closer to $160 billion. In an ideal world, Prop. 1 would be split into two separate questions, not one.

But, here’s the thing: It’s not so bad that we’d toss the baby (transit) out with the bathwater (roads). We’re already invested in light rail, and we can’t wait for the 2009 (that will be on time, right Sound Transit?) opening of the stretch connecting Sea-Tac Airport to the University of Washington.

That’s my feeling basically. ST2 includes hugely important rail infrastructure, and RTID includes a few bad projects (405) and a few really desparately needed ones (South Park Bridge). I think on the whole, it’s far more good than bad.

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Eastside Rail

This post originally appeared on Orphan Road.

With all this Prop. 1 hubub, let’s not forget that there’s still a set of tracks over on the Eastside that, last time we checked, Ron Sims was still committed to turning into a transit corridor.

Eastside Rail Now! has some great photos along the route if you’re interested in getting a better feel for it.

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Starting from Scratch

This post originally appeared on Orphan Road.

David Goldstein makes a good point:

Indeed, if there is a lesson to be learned from this performance audit, and the parallel histories of both Sound Transit and the Seattle Monorail Project, it is the inherent danger of starting large transportation agencies from scratch… which ironically, is exactly what we’ll eventually be forced to do should voters reject Proposition 1.

This is in context of Sound Transit’s mismanagement in the 1990s, and I think it’s exactly right. It takes a long time for an agency to build up competencies and get good at what it does. It has to develop an instiutional culture, a repository of what works/what doesn’t, and lots of expertise.

In the waning days of the Seattle Monorail Project, the board fired in-way-above-his-head PR guy Joel Horn and brought in John Haley, a veteran of Boston’s transit agencies. Erica Barnett reported at the time:

Cleve Stockmeyer, the board’s other elected member, voted for Horn’s raise but now says hiring the onetime Paul Schell treasurer was “a mistake,” something he says he recognized after seeing John Haley, the interim executive director hired by the board in August. Haley, unlike Horn, has 30 years’ experience working for transportation agencies.

Bringing in Haley was the right move, probably 3 years too late. But just because Haley knew Boston, doesn’t mean he knows Seattle, 3,000 miles away on the other end of I-90. Each city has its own peculiar culture, and grafting a transit system onto it is never easy. You can’t fake that knowledge, it just takes time.

Update: Props to Joseph Turner and the Tacoma News-Tribune for being the only major daily in the region to get the gist of the Sound Transit audit: “Sound Transit’s first stab at building a multibillion-dollar light-rail system was a real mess for the first five years, but the agency got much better as time went on.”

Exactly.

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A Feature, Not a Bug?

This post originally appeared on Orphan Road.

Oops:

Voters’ in northern King County will receive a supplemental edition of their state and local Voters’ Pamphlet this weekend. Edition 18 was printed and mailed without the Sound Transit & RTID Proposition No. 1 pro and con statements page. The error occurred during the printing process and was discovered yesterday, after edition 18 was mailed to households in Bothell, Kenmore, Kirkland, Woodinville, and Redmond. Voters will receive their supplemental pamphlet before absentee ballots are mailed.

Noted without comment.

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Sound Transit Wasted Tenths… TENTHS! (of a percent)

This post originally appeared on Orphan Road.

Last week I argued that oversight and accountability was coming to Sound Transit and RTID, in the form of the state auditor’s office.

Well, the report is out:

A review of the regional transit agency’s 11-year history identified about $5 million in “unnecessary expenses and fines” and said the agency hadn’t sufficiently controlled expenses. It also said Sound Transit improved its construction management techniques in the past five years.

The agency disputed parts of the report, but agreed with most of it.

Millions! Of course, when taxpayer dollars are concerned, waste is certainly problematic, but let’s put it into context:

[Sound Transit spokesman Bruce Gray ] said the $5 million in extra fines and expenses amount to less than two-tenths of 1 percent of the $2.6 billion construction cost of the initial rail system.

“To say you could have another 0.2 of a percent speaks to how effective and efficient things are running around here right now since we made the overhaul” of the agency, he said.

This is not, in other words, Iraq, where billions of dollars manage to vanish into the eternal desert sands.

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Gas Tax Shortfall

This post originally appeared on Orphan Road.

Here’s something ironic: the increase in gas prices this year is causing a projected shortfall in gas tax revenue. Why? People are using less gas.

Actually, that’s not ironic at all — it’s exactly what you’d expect: supply and demand. It is, however, instructive in the over-reliance on a single source of revenue to fund transportation. It also highlights just how divergent gasoline consumption and road use are becoming.

Back, say, 50 years ago, when all the jobs were in the cities, every household had one car, and all those cars were basically interchangeable Fords and Chevys that all got roughly the same gas mileage, the gas tax would have been a fairly equitable and reliable way to fund road construction and maintenance.

Today, however, the picture is different, and only getting more so. With hydrogen, biofuels, and ultra-efficient electric cars on the horizon, consumption of gasoline will soon cease to be a useful predictor of road use.

Which leads us to other types of “use” taxes, such as static (i.e. toolbooth-based) or dynamic (radio transponder) tolling. Sen. Ed Murray elaborates:

“Almost worldwide after the end of World War II, gas tax was a way that transportation was funded. We are now moving into a period of time where we have to explore what is going to … replace the gas tax,” he said.

Murray, D-Seattle, said the state needs to look at tolls to fill the gap but added, “That’s going to be a long debate.”

It’s a debate well worth having.

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The Liberation of Ron Sims

This post originally appeared on Orphan Road.

We want our politicians to not be beholden to “special interests” or what have you, but we also need them to be accountable — to have a fear in their hearts that if they don’t listen to their voters, they could be out of a job. It’s a two-way street.

I mentioned last Friday, in discussing Ron Sims’ decision to not support Prop. 1, that Sims seemed liberated by the fact that he’s been effectively shut out of higher office. But liberation can turn to be a double-edged sword (to butcher yet another ying-yang metaphor!).

Yesterday, Danny Westneat took that sentement to its logical conclusion, saying that Sims should resign if his heart isn’t in it anymore.

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Prop. 1 and Global Warming

This post originally appeared on Orphan Road.

Trying to contain the fallout from Ron Sims’ decision last week not to support Prop. 1, Governor Gregoire says:

“Maybe (the measure) isn’t perfect. … I don’t care if it’s not perfect, we have got to move forward. And the last thing we need is to have the 1.2 million (people) that are coming into the Puget Sound area over the next decade, and leave the status quo. Want to talk global warming? That is a disaster.”

It’s a clever move, trying to pivot off of global warming, which, as Josh Feit argued, was the “one cogent moment” of Sims’ editorial.

But I think we need to step back for a moment and acknowledge that there are limits to what highway planning can and cannot do to halt global warming. The single largest cause of global warming is the burning of coal for electricity. Car and light truck emissions are just 20% of the total. More controversially, gridlock, too contributes to global warming. And though I’m not naive enough to believe that simply adding more lanes will end gridlock, adding HOV capacity to the 520 bridge will do far more good than harm in that regard.

(To be fair, transportation — including planes — accounts for over half the CO2 emissions in the Northwest specifically, but (a), that’s only because we get much of our electricity from hydro, and (b) because CO2 is only one of the gases that contribute to global warming)

So while I completely agree that denser, transit-oriented urban development is one key component to reversing climate change, it’s not the only one. Increasing fuel efficiency, reducing the use of coal-fired electricity plants, and somehow figuring out how to stop cows from passing gas are just three things that would do more to stop global warming than whether or not we pass Prop. 1 this November.

The Sierra Club and Ron Sims (both of whom I admire) would like to make this vote a referendum on global warming. It’s just not that simple.

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A Different Take

This post originally appeared on Orphan Road.

Knute Berger, ever the contrarian, has a weekend essay in Crosscut arguing that, hey, we’re actually moving forward on this whole infrastructure-upgrade-thing that blogs like this one have been so obsessed with, so, you know… let’s give ourselves some credit.

And he’s right. We are moving forward, and that’s one reason why I wanted to start this website. There’s just so much going on to talk about and document.

Anyway, the article’s alright, but you should definitely take the time to scroll down through the comments, where Berger and R&T proponent Sandeep Kaushik get into it over Ron Sims, congestion pricing, and more. I’d give a link, but Crosscut‘s funky content management system doesn’t seem to provide permalinks to comments.

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Global Warming

Most of the leftist Anti-Prop 1 arguments have been environmental. I know it sounds heretical for a supposed pro-environment, pro-transit, progressive to argue about the topic of global warming, but I think the effect of global warming in this package is overstated for the following reasons: many of the new roads are for freight and transit, huge new roads are being built anyway with little or no discussion from the left, and the fact of the matter is the oil argument is unconvincing for the reasons I lay out below.

The roads themselves

This is not a huge expenditure on roads as far as roads expenditures go. Washington state approved a bigger roads bill than this just two years ago, and a bill about half the size just two years before that. Also, two years ago President Bush signed a $286 billion dollar highway bill, and China will build more than 30,000 miles of highways this decade, most of those three lane express-ways. When you compare the literally hundreds of thousands -if not millions – of highway-lanes being built all around the world, the 156 miles of new highway lanes (not new roads, but new lanes) doesn’t seem like much at all. In fact, even in those estimates many of the new lanes are rebuilding existing lanes, or re-routing traffic onto highways from “street” roads.

If you look at the graffic at the left, only 15% of the Roads and Transit spending is so-called “bad roads”, those that are not transit, HOV lanes or freight capacity (that’s the Sierra Club’s own definition of good roads, by the way). Compare that number to the WSDOT projects linked to above, or the proposed State Highway 2 expansion – which would become unnecessary with 405 expansion, or Sierra Club donor, and Eastside real-estate (and fasion?) mogul Kemper Freeman’s I-605 proposal (aka the Snoqualimie Valley freeway).

Even with the 15% bad roads that would be built, not building them does nothing to ensure those fossil fuels don’t get burned, or that those roads won’t get built later.

The oil will get burned by someone no matter what

This article is pretty techincal from an economics stand point, but the message is important:

If Americans buy less oil but all the oil will end up sold in any case, demand simply has been redistributed rather than lowered. Instead the key is to get that oil to stay in the ground.

You could replace the argument with “Puget Sound Residents” and it still stands. Suppose we choose not to burn oil, or rather, we choose not to build roads because we fear it means more oil would get burned. The sad fact is that all the cheap oil left will be burned one way or another. Much of it will be burned in Asia, where massive militaries are being built to protect their own oil interests now that the sun is setting on our Empire. As the dollar declines, we will be able to afford ever less and less oil, and that leads to the next point.

There isn’t enough oil, it will take a new technology one way or another

If oil supplies were so small, and we could simply burn them all away and that would be the end of the fossil fuel era, then we shouldn’t really mind building the roads other than they’d be a waste of money since no one would be able to drive on them. If we use up all the oil, we’d have no fuel to burn, no one would drive, the roads would go unused and it’d be a huge boondoggle. Us transit folks wouldn’t even be troubled tremendously, since none of us drive, at least not that much anyway.

We’ve hit peak oil, and it will take a new technology one way or another to move those cars anyway. Sadly, the problem is not that we have too little fossil fuels, but that we have too much:

The trick in the argument is to equate oil with fossil fuels in general. This is plausible enough for natural gas, which commonly occurs in the same places as oil, and is also in fairly limited supply. But the elephant in the corner in these arguments is coal. The US has enough easily accessible coal to supply hundreds of years of consumption at current rates, and the same is true of the rest of the world.

The Salon article mentions coal only a couple of times in passing. Yet coal and coal-fired electricity already compete directly with oil in all major uses except personal transport. If current oil prices are sustained for long, we can expect to see electricity displacing oil in home heating, and electrification of rail transport at the expense of diesel, reversing the trend of recent decades when diesel has been cheap. This is already happening.

As for cars, there are at least three well-established ways in which they could be fuelled by coal. First, there are electric cars. Second, there is coal liquefication, used on a large scale by South Africa in the sanctions period. Third, gasification could be used to replace liquid petroleum gas. All of these options have problems, but none are insurmountable given a high enough price; they might be competitive if oil stays above $60 a barrel long enough, and they would certainly be competitive at $150/barrel. Then there are more exotic options, like fuel cells using coal-based methanol.

But even in the worst case scenario it will take many years and some technological change to switch from oil. Luckily, we have some of the world’s best scientists looking at alternative energy sources. This is about a Tokyo Institute of Technology (my alma mater) scientist’s attempt to turn solar energy into magnesium which could be used as car fuel. Another scientist in Pennsylvannia is working on burning water for propulsion, which obviously requires a separate power source, but that could be a solar energy generated battery, or through cold fusion, whose research seems to have made a number of advances in just the past year. My point is, there’s no gaurantee that new roads means new fossil fuel burning onto eternity. And as a species if we are not able to keep from burning fossil fuels we are doomed anyway.

I know that’s not a heart-warming argument, that we are doomed if we don’t come up with an alternative. But that’s the facts as they stand today. I don’t mean to be flippant about global warming; it’s the biggest challenge facing mankind. But whether we move to other fossil fuels or move forward and find an alternative, it’s going to take a technological change to effect the climate one way or another.

As for the current vote, if we don’t drive, then RTID won’t have the money to pay for its roads projects, which are mostly funded by an increase in the Motor Vehicle Excise Tax. And some we’ll likely end up paying for anyway. So if we think that our driving days are numbered, why should we care about a roads package funded mostly by taxes on cars?

In summary, RTID isn’t a lot of roads. It’s also mostly good roads, and in the future driving doesn’t necessarily mean fossil fuels. Even if you think we need to oppose all roads because of global warming concerns, you are better off making that choice with your feet literally and stop driving. Well, I am ready for you to rip me apart on this, as a pro-environment progressive, but I guess I’ve opened the door.

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Last Ron Sims Post

I promise this will be the last Ron Sims post.

Ron Sims in 2002:

But Sims said such a large investment is needed to address “a growing sense of rage that nothing is being done.”

But Sims said yesterday there was no time to waste.

“You cannot tell people sitting in congestion that we’ll have another year of planning,” he said.

Voters know the issues, Sims said, and more delay would only serve to confirm suspicions about government’s inability to listen and act.

Ron Sims in 2004:

Sims does not have a vote on the three-county Regional Transportation Investment District that would officially adopt a package, but he has refused to stay on the sidelines.

“My goal is to lead,” Sims said. “I am fatigued over discussions.”

Sims latest 10-year proposal comes in at a total of $7.2 billion for King County projects, compared with $6.5 billion for a version he released in September. The investment district board has been considering a 15-year $9 billion package.

Ron Posthuma, assistant director of King County’s Department of Transportation, said Sims’ package is about 10 percent smaller than what the district had been discussing.

Gaining ground in Sims’ proposal this time around is Interstate 405, for which Sims now proposes to spend $2.085 billion, compared with $1.3 billion in his September proposal.

Sims would spend 53 percent on roads, 21 percent on carpool lanes and 26 percent on transit, including $1.33 billion to take light rail to Northgate and to Sea-Tac Airport.

Ron Sims in 2007:

Tragically, this plan continues the national policy of ignoring our impacts upon global warming. In a region known for our leadership efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, this plan will actually boost harmful carbon emissions.

Faced with catastrophic climate change, we need to have courage in our convictions, in our leadership and in our transportation solutions. We must question the environmental implications of our actions.

We need to refocus on bold solutions that offer immediate relief and a better tomorrow — future generations deserve no less.

Until we have real transportation solutions, I’m a “no” vote

Good thing we have “principled” and consistent leaders!

Update: As Josh Feit pointsRon Sims is likely not pro-rail. He is pro-bus, especially Bus Rapid Transit.

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Walt Crowley: Last days of the ICE Age

The Times ran a long opinion piece by Walt Crowley, who died last week at the too-young age of 60. It has a nice history of how transportation moved away from rail in the first half of the twentieth century, and how we now have the choice to move in the opposite direction:

Passage of the roads-and-transit plan will not instantly unclog highways nor usher in some modern version of a 19th-century City Beautiful utopia overnight. It will, however, mark a tipping point not unlike the predicted thawing of the polar ice caps, a one-way threshold of no return. We will always need roads and highways, but once the momentum of transportation investment steers away from the gas-powered automobile in favor of transit and other alternatives, there will be no going back.

The read whole thing, it’s very interesting. It’s an interesting perspective, and Crowley was very optimistic about the end of the automobile era. At least here, it’ll only happen if we pass prop 1.

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