Every time we have a Link ridership report readers like to make predictions for next year. Blog comments are low stakes, so if that’s entertaining for people so be it. In the long term, there’s pretty good reason to think ridership will increase substantially because:

1. People will naturally sort themselves so that those very interested in living near a train line will displace those not so inclined;
2. Barring an absolute fiscal or engineering catastrophe, more stations will open and serve more trips, even on the existing segment; and
3. Barring continued chaos in the finance and real estate markets, all those empty pits on MLK will be developed.

I’m personally confident that all those trends will emerge over the next decade or so. In the short term, however, those secular trends are likely to be totally swamped by variation in employment levels, fuel prices, tourist arrivals, Metro service levels, weather, and Mariners and Sounders attendance. These things are hard to predict and short term variations don’t have much to do with the long-term viability of Link.

In other words, no matter what ridership does in 2011, that’s not substantial confirmation or refutation of your beliefs.  If it comes back strong, it doesn’t mean that 2010 can be dismissed as an isolated blip below expectations. Similarly, if it’s flat or slightly declining, that doesn’t “prove” that Link’s future ridership growth is a mirage.

See also Zach on models.

Publicola is hosting a debate tonight at 7pm to talk about what the media has dubbed “The War On Cars”. Should be interesting. Details via Facebook after the jump.  Continue reading “Debate Tonight: The War On Cars”

Here’s another variation of my Link stem-and-leaf schedule. If you looked at that schedule closely, you will see a consistent pattern to the departure times. Trains are always spaced at scheduled headways (7.5, 10, 15 minutes), even at transition points between peak and off-peak. You will see that trains depart Westlake for the airport “on the sevens”, at 7, 17, 27, 37, 47, 57 minutes past the hour, during off-peak hours and almost all day on weekends. Since the schedules rarely change and are simple enough, they are easy to memorize and communicate to others.

Realizing that, elements of this design could be simplified further while providing more details than the current Sound Transit presentation. Though the template for this was the schedule book, I think this would be more suitable for station schedules. The schedule book needs to have the timepoint-based schedules in addition to the basic summary.

The schedule data for my mockups came from One Bus Away. That may soon no longer be possible, as commenter Tim, suggests:

In the future, expect One Bus Away to show headways instead of exact times. (If available) real time information will help decide what time to add the headway information to. Example: 08:00 and the line runs every 10 minutes. With no real time available, schedule will show 08:00, 08:10, etc. With realtime available, and assuming the last vehicle passed at 08:02, you’ll instead see 08:02, 08:12, 08:22, etc. That is assuming that the operating agency plans on keeping headways and not schedules.

Eventually Sound Transit and Metro will no longer supply schedule data for both RapidRide and Link.

Let’s hope that both of them get their real-time arrival information systems in working order before deciding on pulling the plug.

Sound Transit has released updated ridership numbers for Link.

Since the SeaTac Station opened in mid December 2009 this is the first month that we can compare ridership numbers for a full year. The figure above shows average ridership and the figure below shows total ridership aggregated by month over the last year. To me the thing that jumps out most is the large variation of Saturday ridership. I’m not a sports person so someone please tell me how this relates to events at Safeco and Quest.

Total ridership graph after the jump. Continue reading “Link Yearly Ridership Trends”

For anyone interested in the Bel-Red redevelopment, there’s an open house coming up that will primarily address the new NE 15/16th street arterial that will be built along the corridor.  Some of the right-of-way design options that have already been reviewed by the city council range up to 177 feet, widths that tend to be horrendously bad for successful and walkable transit-oriented development.

From the City’s press release (PDF):

The new street is being designed for a variety of transportation users, including motorists, pedestrians, bicyclists, light-rail passengers and bus and vanpool riders. Attendees can learn about, and comment upon, roadway options intended to accommodate future growth in the area and integrate with the planned East Link light rail route. Two light rail stations are proposed along the new thoroughfare – at 120th Avenue Northeast and at 130th Avenue Northeast, with a park-and-ride proposed at the 130th Avenue station.

The open house is from 5 to 7pm on the first-floor concourse at Bellevue City Hall this Wednesday, February 2nd.

A mom explores the transit nerd in her for her son’s birthday.  There’s definitely one way to get your kids to start liking transit.

(H/T: Eric Fernstrom)

An Afternoon Jolt this week mentioned a TCC/Onebusaway survey, recently briefed to the Seattle City Council, of Southeast Seattle residents. It contained this very discouraging tidbit:

Just seven percent of respondents said that if they need to go downtown they would use the light rail.

This may very well be an accurate report of how it was briefed, but I obtained a copy of the survey results (.doc), and this is the actual question:

25.       And now please finish this sentence; I would use light rail more often if…
(multiple responses; n=187)
It were closer to me/convenient  21%
It went more places I wanted to go 14%
I needed it/Had someplace to go 9%
Better parking situation 9%
I needed to go downtown 7%
Offered more routes 6%
Had more stations 6%
It were cheaper 5%
I didn’t have a car 3%
There were a bus/service to take me directly to the station 3%
I were more familiar with it 2%
I felt safer on it 1%
It were faster 0%
Other 6%

The syntax of the blurb suggests, at least to me, that only 7% of people in SE Seattle use light rail when they go downtown. That may or may not be the case, but that’s not what the question is asking.

Wordplay aside, there’s a lot of information in this December 2009 survey on what the true barriers to higher ridership are, aside from the empty pits around most stations, for both bus and rail. Details after the jump.

Continue reading “Transportation Barriers Survey”

A number of South Lake Union employers have offered to contribute $65,000 to Seattle to fund additional peak service for one year.

Ethan Melone of SDOT says that this will fund a third streetcar operating between 4-6 pm on weekdays, reducing headways from 15 to 10 minutes. “With several thousand additional employees moving into SLU this year, the employers are concerned that the cars are already pretty full during this timeframe and they want to be able to encourage as many employees as possible to take transit,” Melone said.

According to Vulcan spokesman David Postman, the funding comes from Amazon, Fred Hutch, UW Medicine, and Group Health. “For us, it’s really great news that companies whose employees are using the streetcar are helping to pay for additional service in the neighborhood.”

Melone also explained that enacting the change requires a resolution by the City Council, which he hopes to have in place by March.