Transportation Project Spending: 2023-2029

“Yeah, that’s great and all, but how are you going to pay for it?” Such is the buzz of a rhetorical torpedo which has sunk a thousand good ideas. The problem with this question isn’t its deeper truth—we live in a world of limited time and resources—but in how selectively it is deployed. Obstructionist deficit hawks fire it to block millions spent on transit and public health, yet silently allow policymakers to allocate trillions towards highways and war. It is not a question of whether we can undertake massive projects—especially in the state of Washington—but which to prioritize.

In contrast to my home state of Illinois, Washington shines as a beacon of fiscal stability: it consistently maintains healthy financial reserves, meticulously plans budgets according to comprehensive economic forecasts, and steadfastly controls its assumption of debts. These far-seeing practices have insulated the state from global economic instability, engendering confidence among bond holders and credit rating agencies alike. The state appears to consistently ask and thoroughly answer the question: “how are you going to pay for that?”

With wise frugality guiding the flow of money though Olympia, we can move on from asking “how are you going to pay for that,” to a deeper question: “why are you going to pay for that?” With increased wildfires threatening the state’s economy, the legislative mandate to address climate change, and the state having explicitly acknowledged transportation represents Washington’s largest source of emissions, how would a wise administration distribute funds?

Funding data below the fold:

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Open Thread 18: Rethink the Link

“Rethink the Link“: A West Seattle movement advocates the “No Build” EIS alternative for West Seattle Link. This one seems to be not just nimbys but people concerned about effective transit. As this blog has discussed, existing bus routes fan out from the West Seattle Bridge in a stick-shift pattern, connecting West Seattle neighborhoods to each other as well as short one-seat rides to downtown. Link will serve only the middle horizontal bar of the stick shift, serving only a small area directly while the vast majority of neighborhoods require a transfer. And RapidRide H (Delridge) will probably continue running downtown in parallel. All this gives a reason to stop West Seattle Link. Ideally multi-line BRT fanning out from the bridge would replace the existing bus routes. But even lesser bus improvements might be better than an ineffective and expensive Link route. Here’s a manifesto of sorts.

This could be a model for advocacy on the problematic Ballard/DSTT2 project with horrible transfers, and the arguably-unnecessary Tacoma Dome and Everett extensions and the Issaquah line. ST2 Link and the short exensions to Lynnwood, Federal Way, and downtown Redmond are critical for the region’s transit mobility. But the further extensions have diminishing returns, and the proposed bad transfers downtown would cripple the network. A “No Build” alternative is required in every EIS, and people can argue for it. Most no-build alternatives assume incremental bus improvements, and it may be possible to divert some of the project money to them. Of course, it would be a long shot to convince the ST board and subarea politicians and local politicians to cancel the Link projects.

Chile builds metros for $100 million per mile, fully underground and with platform screen doors. Sound Transit spends $1 billion for a mostly-elevated line to West Seattle. A video on Santiago’s network and how it keeps costs low (RMTransit). And Santiago is building a gondola too.

Are turnstyles or proof of payment better? RMTransit weighs in.

Singapore seeks to eliminate the urban heat island effect ($). A V-shaped hospital campus next to a pond with a wooded “courtyard”. Plants on skyscrapers. White buildings like Greece. Trees and wind corridors throughout the city. Rail transit. All to counteract the 10 degrees Fahrenheit urban heat island to protect residents’ health.

Seattle and the Eastside continue to bifurcate into rich and poor with little in the middle. ($) San Francisco went through this twenty years earlier.

Are Link’s next-arrival displays on again? Are they accurate this time? Sound Transit turned them on for a few weeks this summer to quantify the errors and see where they’re coming from. One commentator saw one on this week and it was accurate. Has ST finally made some headway, or is it still as far off as ever?

This is an open thread. Thanks to Martin Pagel for the West Seattle and Chile topics.

Inflation and Transportation

Globally, people rarely use public transportation because of morality; they use it because it is cheap. The reason it’s cheaper to take the bus than to drive in Russia, for example, is not because the government there cares about reducing emissions. It’s because transit utilizes resources more efficiently, and frees up resources to be used on other projects, like war.

The data demonstrates that this rule applies to Americans. When factoring in maintenance, car payments, fuel and insurance, owning and operating a car costs roughly $10,000 per year in the United States on average. Let’s compare a daily commute from the suburb of Kent to Seattle, with driving vs transit. A regional monthly transit pass costs $144 and covers every form of transit: all busses, light rail, commuter rail, water taxis, monorail, everything, plus or minus a dollar here or there for the occasional trip off the beaten path. The result is roughly $1,500 a year versus $10,000 a year. By switching to transit, the average American would give themselves an $8,500 raise.

Motorists may protest and claim their expenses are lower based on careful driving habits and short trips. They are wrong. A commuter from Kent who used their car exclusively to drive 20 miles to work in central Seattle, never paid for parking, made absolutely no other trips, performed absolutely no maintenance, got their car for free, didn’t register their vehicle, never paid for insurance, and avoided all accidents while driving a vehicle with the average mpg of 27.5 would still come out $200 ahead by switching to transit and avoiding the price of fuel alone.

More below the fold.

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Open Thread 17: T Line MLK Opens

The T line phase 2 in Tacoma opened today, with tour guides and festivities until 5pm. The original T line runs north from Tacoma Dome station on Pacific Avenue and through downtown Tacoma on Commerce Street. The extension turns west on 6th Avenue Division Street and south on MLK Way. This is Tacoma’s “First Hill”, the hospital district and historically lower-income Hilltop neighborhood. It ends at South 19th Street. A third phase in the 2040s will go west on 19th to Tacoma Community College. Trains run every 12 minutes until 8pm weekdays and Saturdays, and every 20 minutes 8-10pm. On Sundays trains run every 20 minutes until 6pm. The last inbound train (to Tacoma Dome) leaves 32 minutes later. [Update: Corrected the frequency.] The fare is a flat $2. A day pass costs twice that. If you get a chance to try the current T line, let us know. I’ll go down sometime in the next few weeks.

I’m also thinking of a bus trip on CT 271, the route on Highway 2 that goes through Snohomish, Monroe, Sultan, and Gold Bar in Snohomish County. A commentator recently took this route to Gold Bar for a hike. I’m thinking about visiting the towns. Do you have any recommendations for things to see in there, or whether to go end to end first, or which town to spent time in and turn around? Everett to Snohomish is 15 minutes on Saturdays, Everett to Monroe 28 minutes, and Everett to Gold Bar 59 minutes. On weekdays it’s several minutes longer. The bus is hourly until around 8pm every day. A total end-to-end round trip from Seattle on Link, ST 512, and CT 271 would be 4 hours of riding and 2-3 hours of transferring (aka forced layovers). Turning around at Monroe would shave an hour off that. What would you do?

This would complement my Snoqualmie Valley bus trip in 2014. I repeated the trip last year. I didn’t have enough new things to say for an article, but I traveled with a friend this time, got another look at Issaquah’s route area, stopped in a cafe in Snoqualmie and Duvall, and checked ridership in the New Urbanist developments of Snoqualmie Ridge and Redmond Ridge. The Snoqualmie Valley Shuttle had around twenty passengers getting on and off at various stops. To get the shortest transfer waits and finish in the early afternoon, I really had only one schedule choice, that left Seattle around 7am and Snoqualmie at 8:44am. The 208 made about four stops inside inside Snoqualmie Ridge. I don’t remember it doing that before; I thought it just stopped at the parkway entrances. On/offs were in the 0-2 range. Redmond Ridge was a contrast. The 224 makes several stops inside the neighborhood, and ten or fifteen people got on/off, more than I expected. The sidewalks in Redmond Ridge had several pedestrians walking around too, making the most of their walkable environment.

If anyone else has other transit tours to describe, put then in the comments or email a paragraph to the contact address for a future open thread.

This is an open thread.

Reasonable Transit Expectations

In the 1980s, Domino’s declared 30 minutes too long to wait for a pizza delivery. Is it reasonable to expect a person to wait for a bus longer than it would take for them to order and receive a pizza to said bus stop? No.

Originally, I was born and raised in a car-dependent Chicago suburb before living outside the United States for six years teaching English as a Second Language, where I learned that life based around rail and bus timetables is both financially and psychologically more liberating than car dependency. I first arrived in Washington State in 2022 to obtain my Master’s in Education from Pacific Lutheran University in Parkland, as both the state and university have a good reputation for education, especially compared to my home state of Illinois.

Throughout the entirety of my year-long program I lived in Parkland without a car. This decision forced me to quickly familiarize myself with Washington’s current transit network and left me to rely on a bicycle more than I had anticipated (to the benefit of my physique). Pierce Transit’s route 1 along Pacific Avenue became my lifeline, both as a connection to central Tacoma and for transfers to Sound Transit’s 594 to Seattle. Speaking with bus drivers and transit users, I learned not only that Pacific Avenue’s route 1 is straining to meet demand, but Parkland was originally designed around a transit corridor along that very route—it had initially hosted regular tram service. In short, I was living in a streetcar suburb with no streetcar, which explains why demand for the 1 is naturally so high and why two to four cars piled up in front of every house left me with a sense of claustrophobia despite the quiet streets and quaint little homes.

Route 1 plugs multiple communities into the system, providing them with easy access to central Tacoma and Sound Transit’s regional network. It has the potential to facilitate substantially more development with adequate upgrades. North (central Tacoma) is left and south (Spanaway) is right in this image. Source: Pierce Transit
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Open Thread 16: Normal Transit

Warsaw shows what should be “normal” transit in cities. (RMTransit)

There is a new grass roots movement to fix the often delayed Metro 8.

Jarrett Walker shares his thoughts on an automated bus pilot in Scotland. (Human Transit)

SDOT is planning around the future 130th Station. (SDOT)

Ryan Packer writes about potential Link overcrowding and changes to the 5. (Urbanist)

Sound Transit delays the Real-Time-Arrival system for Link.

Checking in on the BellHop ($), downtown Bellevue’s demand-response circulator. It’s called BellHop, not Bel-Hop like previous circulators in the 80s.

Do flashing pedestrian beacons (RRFBs) make streets safe to walk across? (CityNerd video) I say they help. I looked at two adult family homes for a relative. One was in Burien and required crossing six-lane high-speed 1st Avenue South without a crosswalk to get to the 131 northbound bus stop. I saw people with walkers or walking their dog doing it between 40 mph traffic. But I was afraid that if I went there monthly I’d inevitably get hit by a car someday. Another home in Bellevue had RRFBs on 156th at three residential intersections, so that was one of the reasons we chose that home. I assume the difference is that Bellevue is rich enough to afford RRFBs and Burien isn’t. Still, I’d call 1st Avenue South dangerous like the stroads in the video, and something needs to be done.

Art deco wonders in downtown Seattle. ($)

Downtowns find creative uses for underused office buildings. ($) Breweries, farms, spas…

Homeless people in programs that give cash use it for basic needs ($) such as “housing, furniture and transportation”, and not on “temptation goods” (defined as alcohol, drugs, or cigarette).

Urban planning in communist countries. (Wikipedia) Where did all those commie block highrises came from?

Cars are making our lives worse. A Puerto Rico perspective. (Bianca Graulau video)

This is an open thread.

Breaking down East Link Starter Line ridership

East Link Starter Line map, by Sound Transit

Now that Sound Transit has paved the way for an East Link Starter Line (ELSL) opening for next Spring, it’s worth deep diving into the projected ridership numbers. At the last Sound Transit Board meeting, early ridership estimates were pegged at a modest 6,000 average weekday boardings, reflecting limited demand until the 2-Line is fully connected to the main 1-Line spine via I-90.

The ELSL, which will run between South Bellevue and Redmond Technology Station, is not directly served by any single bus route currently. Rather, its sub-segments are served by various disparate routes that are a hodgepodge of local and express service:

  • Between South Bellevue & Downtown Bellevue: 550/556 (Bellevue Way), 241 (108th), 249 (Enatai)
  • Between Downtown Bellevue and Overlake Village: 226 (Bel-Red Rd), 249 (Northup, NE 20th), B-Line (NE 8th, 156th Ave NE)
  • Between Downtown Bellevue and Redmond Technology Station: B-Line, 566

The ELSL does serve some existing commuter markets, namely the two corridors between South Bellevue, Downtown Bellevue, and Redmond Technology Station (Microsoft). But it is also serving entirely new markets that are difficult to forecast given the rise of remote work, lack of connection to the 1-Line, and absence of any single precursor service. More on each ELSL sub-segment below the fold.

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