News Round Up

Pepsi ads in University Street station
Pepsi adds in University Street station. By Oran, via the STB flickr group

These don’t deserve posts of their own, but I want to keep you informed:

  • Obama is now planning to make 40% of the stimulus tax rebates. This means some combination of two things: 1) that there were not enough good “shovel-ready” projects available and 2) that Obama is trying please conservatives.
  • Vancouver Washington is thinking about light rail alignments. When a new I-5 bridge across the Columbia is built, Vancouver will likely get connected to Portland’s Max system.
  • Phoenix’s Light Rail trains have had four accidentswith cars since opening last month. That system is basically entirely at-grade, so there are more crossings and more spots to have accidents than with Link. Still, we need to be careful when Link opens, the potential for accidents is still there, and while some accidents are certainly inevitable, right sorts of lights and bells can keep the number to a minimum.
  • Apparently Seattle is getting WAY better.
  • Are we trying to resuscitate a dinosaur by fighting for transit? I don’t think so, in fact, I believe we’ve got a dinosaur on life-support with the way we plan transportation currently.
  • Ted Van Dyk, who used to infuriate me, has become hilarious (self-inflicted “atrocity”). Who would have ever thought that? Universe, you have a sense of humor.
  • If Sound Transit should be called “Seattle Transit”, East Link should be called “Bellevue Link“.

South Bellevue

Andrew’s already pointed to all the great new information on East Link, but I’d just like to come out against the “B7” (I-405) alignment in South Bellevue.  There’s going to be a lot of fear of traffic, noise, and disruption among residents living near the existing S. Bellevue Park and Ride.  The path of least resistance, certainly, will be to shove the line out to the highway.  That’s a bad idea for several reasons:

  • Ridership projections and cost per rider are worse by a factor of 5.
  • The bus connections for I-90 routes will be much better along Bellevue Way.  When there’s an accident on I-90, it’ll be great to have an efficient way to connect to the train from Eastgate or Issaquah.  Depending on how the travel times work out, it may very well be that it makes more sense to terminate the 554 at South Bellevue.  In any case, a stop near Wilburton won’t be nearly as efficient, not least because of how hard it is to get on I-405 from I-90.
  • The road disruption won’t be all that bad.  MLK, which was a massive job, finished up in less than two years in front of my development.  Traffic flowed pretty well throughout that time.
  • In the long run, being close to the light rail will increase property values in that neighborhood.
  • It’s true that it might attract more traffic, but any amenity that makes a neighborhood a better place increases traffic.  At least light rail provides an alternative to sitting in that traffic.
  • Link is really, really quiet.

Not only do I think the residents are operating from a misperception of their self-interest, but when you consider the broader region, the B7 alternative is by far the worst.

I think the public meetings are going to have a lot of this NIMBY sentiment, so I hope Sound Transit comes armed with data about property values, a sound recording of an operating LINK train, and some other examples of why residents’ worst fears are unfounded.   If you live or work nearby, they also probably won’t mind your support.

East Link Thoughts

Sound Transit has released its draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) for East Link, here’s an executive summary (9.6 MB pdf). The study compares the impacts, costs and benefits of different routings, as well as the impacts, costs and benefits of elevated, at-grade and underground rights of way. There’s also an interactive map on the Sound Transit site, where you can see the different alignments. Worth checking out, I promise.

From the press release:

The Sound Transit Board is expected to identify a preferred alternative next spring and staff would then complete the final environmental impact statement to be published in 2010. A final decision on the project would be made in 2010 after the Final EIS is published.

Public comment on the current alternatives will play an important factor in the Board’s identification of a preferred alternative…

The public comment period runs from Dec. 12 – Feb. 25, 2009.

My thoughts, as well as times and locations of public meetings below the fold.

Continue reading “East Link Thoughts”

Weekend Thread

  • It’s becoming clear that the very pro-transit Mayor of Seattle, Greg Nickels, will seek a third term in office next November. The mayor did a great job working for Sound Transit 2, and the election could prove a good opportunity for streetcar and urban design fanatics like ourselves to put some additional pressure on the mayor. Now how about Ron Sims vs. Larry Phillips for King County Executive?
  • On Wednesday, there will be a meeting at Seattle Central Community College regarding construction for the Capitol Hill light rail station. Construction is set to begin early next year.
  • The Draft Environmental Impact Statement for East Link (light rail from downtown Seattle to Overlake) has been finished and posted to the web. This wonky set of documents is the first major step toward engineering a project and getting federal funds.
  • Mark B, a reader, has sent in a set of conceptual transportation maps he found on the Puget Sound Regional Council’s website. What do you think Seattle’s transit will look like in 2040?

BNSF One Last Time

I lied when I told you the previous would be post being the last on the BNSF eastside route.
downtownbellevue
Here is a map of possible downtown Bellevue alignments for East Link. For the BSNF rail line to be useful, it would have to be alignment C1 or C2, which one depends on the alignments for the South Bellevue Section.

Bel-Red Upzoning

The City of Bellevue is getting excited about the upzoning policies along Bel-Red road, where East Link is planned to run.  With the proposal suggesting heights of up to 150 feet, they’re making the relatively anemic upzones in the Rainier Valley look bad.

Of course, there’s the wee matter of Proposition 1 passing first.  And the NIMBYs will come out of the woodwork when it’s time to decide.

Hugeasscity has the details.

But 100,000 hours is a lot of buses

image003
It’s just that buses are expensive. The P-I has an article about Prop. 1 that discusses the claim that there isn’t enough new bus service in the package. The West Seattle Times argees, though they don’t support rail to Lynnwood over West Seattle, an argument there’s really no way to get around without telling them to look up what “subarea equity” means.

Ron Sims is being slightly disingenuous in his saying that skyrocketing ridership means we need more service hours on buses. Absolutely we do need more service, but the reason Sims wants Sound Transit to pay for more of what would essentially be local buses is that Metro has already reached the state legislature-defined cap of .9% sales tax. Metro cannot possibly raise any more money without the state legislature increasing the cap and another Metro ballot measure passing. Pierce Transit and Community Transit are in a similar situation. I would support both of these, though I doubt the legislature will move on the former.

As a regional agency, Sound Transit should not be in the business of paying for local buses, and with the region’s long term interests in mind, we should not be providing buses at the expense of light rail. My reasoning is simple – apologies in advance for all the numbers – the proposal on the ballot would bump Sound Transit’s portion of the sales tax to .9%, which for the North King subarea, 100% would be spent on light rail construction and bond servicing until 2009, when about .1% will go toward operating Central Link. In Seattle, Metro moves about 135,000 people a day for .9% in Seattle, Sound Transit will move about 45,000 for .1%, the operations portion of the link budget. After at most 30 years, Central Link’s bonds will be paid off, at which time Central Link will cost just .1% of sales tax to move more than 45,000 people per day. Similar results will be seen for North Link, East Link and South Link. All of light rail in Prop. 1 will be operated for just .2% sales tax, and by 2036 when the bonds are paid off, the other .7% could be reinvested into building more light rail.

For an example of how rail can more more people more cheaply, we need only look to Washington DC. The Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, the operator of DC Metro, spends almost exactly the same amount of money as King Country Metro does, $560 million to $580 million. Except for that $560 million DC metro moves almost a million people a day on rail (three times what KC metro moves per day with its buses) and the WMATA agency provides buses that carry another 120,000! It’s only possible because of the investment put in place years ago, and residents there can reap the benefit of a reliable, traffic-separated transit system that’s relatively cheap.

For increased bus service, 100% of the money would go toward operations. Even assuming operation costs will not rise, that tax capacity could never be spent on service increases in the future beyond simply keeping up with the rise in population. But that rise in population seems to be ever more reliant on transit as a means of getting around, as noted 6.7% increase in bus ridership in 2008. Making matters even worse, operations costs are rising far faster than sales tax receipts because of fuel costs, which is why Transit Nowwill end up providing so little.

I understand that we have real transportation challenges facing us, but in the end, buses are just much more expensive to provide in the long run the rail is. We need the willpower and patience to not just go after the quick solution now, but provide a solution that can grow and be expanded in the future. If Metro needs more money for buses, Ron Sims should go to the legistlature and ask for taxing authority. Or maybe he should just cancel his foot-ferry idea and put the money to buses. That $24 million a year could be a lot of service hours.
Update
Mutlimodal Man points out my numbers on the DC metro comparison are a bit off, but the main point still stands.

P-I Editorial: If not now, then when?

In the Sunday paper, the P-I had a spot-on editorial in favor of the the Sound Transit expansion vote we’ll be getting on the ballot in November, and pointing out the madness of raiding transit funding to put into the highway fund:

Major investments in public transportation are the smart, obvious move at a time when high gas prices are pushing a record number of Americans out of their cars and packing them into mass transit. Unfortunately, doing so is neither smart nor obvious to the federal government. Running short of gas-tax dollars for highways and roads, the Bush administration is planning on taking money out of mass transit funds to take care of highways.

The New York Times on Tuesday reported that, “the short-term solution would be for the Highway Trust Fund’s highway account to borrow money from the fund’s mass transit account, a step that would balance the accounts as highway travel declines and use of mass transit increases.”

Congress has the power to put the kibosh on this plan by refusing to approve it, and killing this counterintuitive move is the only way to go.

Of course I agree, but I think congress should go one step further. People have already started making the decision that the convenience of driving may not be worth the trade-offs in terms of cost and stress, which is why driving is down and walking, biking, and riding transit are up. It’s time for congress to take a similar re-evaluation and decide whether it’s still cost-effective in terms of mobility to subsidize highways to the extent the Federal Government has been.

The obvious reason why the highway fund is in trouble is because people are driving less, and thus buying less gas and paying less gas tax. But the less obvious reason that highway fund is in so much trouble is that the same amount of highway funding buys you less roads today than ever before. The cost of concrete, steel and real estate are all considerably higher than they were ten years ago, and because of it roads are more expensive than before.

The cost of providing transit has also gone up with materials and real estate prices rising, but transit costs less to begin with in a lot of cases. In our area, just the 520 bridge replacement will cost nearly as much as East Link, and the Alaskan Way Viaduct will likely cost more than as North Link. Neither will get significantly more users than the corresponding light rail systems. With tax dollars tight, it may be time to think about increasing funding for the more cost-effective way of moving people around.

Eastside Commuter Rail Roundtable: Part I

Introduction: One possible – but not guaranteed – project on the Eastside is commuter rail line that could run from roughly Snohomish to Renton, or some segment between them. The STB staff have varying opinions on the value of this line, which we fleshed out in this roundtable.

BB is Brian Bundridge, BS is Ben Schiendelman, AS is Andrew, JJ is John Jensen, and I’m MD.

MD: I think we all agree that East Link should be the highest priority on the Eastside. But right after that, the I-405 corridor’s congestion is absolutely horrible. Because the ST2 map leads me to believe that I-405 light rail is going to have to wait for ST4, I say we do something for commuters along that route in their lifetimes. Let’s get this thing built.

BB: The biggest thing with the Eastside Rail Corridor is getting the train closer to the City Core which is the biggest complaint among those who would take the service. An elevated section would however be expensive but would it be so expensive that it is prohibitive?

BS: Crossing 405 would be a 150-200m bridge, so yeah, I think it would be. And you couldn’t go elevated with heavy rail in the middle of Bellevue’s actual downtown.
The biggest issue is that you’d have to rip out and replace the trackbed along the entire corridor – that’s a couple hundred million, there’s no ballast. Then you’d have to shore a lot of the corridor up against slides. I actually went out and took pictures near Woodinville – there are a fair number of slides visible from the not too distant past.
You’d need platforms, equipment, another 100 million. Then you’d upgrade all the crossings or the cities would say no way – another 100 million. It goes through Totem Lake diagonally next to a large intersection – intersecting two streets there. Upgrades there alone would probably cost you a good ten million. The park and ride necessity to get any ridership would cost you another hundred million.
The thing is, this money would do a lot of more cost effective things for the eastside. The rail corridor simply isn’t the best bang for the buck with that money – you could spend it on more bus service (seriously) and get two or three times the riders per dollar. Sound Transit banked east king money last time because they knew east link was ten times as cost effective as this – the eastside rail contingent didn’t even start to speak up until ST2 was on the ballot, even though they’ve had ten years of BNSF trying to sell that corridor.

AS: Ben is right about the costs of the Eastside BNSF Corridor. On a trip through the Eastside in April, we saw a slew of spots where the train speeds were limited to 20 mph and even sometimes as low as 10 or 15
mph, the Totem Lake double-crossing comes to mind. Those areas require track upgrades that could cost well into the hundreds of millions.
The one big slight on the routing of the track is that it doesn’t go through downtown Bellevue. The common response is that it goes very close, and that the future of downtown Bellevue will be on that side of 405. I cannot see this happening until after ST2 gets built and a station connecting the BNSF track to Link is put in place. At that time, the Eastside Corridor becomes viable. It would connect job centers in Kirkland, Bellevue and Renton with residential centers in Kingsgate, Totem Lake, Kirkland and Newcastle/Kennydale.
The criticism that the rich people whose backyards the tracks go through will oppose the trains is valid, but the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. In whole I think that the Eastside BNSF corridor can be a working rail transit corridor, though I believe we need ST2 in place first to make it work.

BS: And with ST2 in place, the cost of the eastside rail corridor would be better spent on connecting Overlake to downtown Redmond, so that ST3 could start building more in the 405 corridor.

AS: Imagining the exact same cost, I’d say connecting Kirkland to Overlake Hospital is more important than connecting DT Redmond to Overlake, though I bet LRT to Redmond would be more cost effective.

BS: The ridership would be higher on DT Redmond to Overlake, because DT Redmond is upzoning and DT Kirkland isn’t.

BB: There’s also a real technical issue there. With Eastside trains running every nine minutes (as assumed in ST2 planning -Lynnwood-Sea-Tac and Northgate-FW are the other two nine minute runs, for three minute central operations and six south of downtown), you’d create a transfer at Overlake Hospital. You couldn’t split the route.

One idea that was brought up to me is the time savings of Everett – Redmond. The train would take 30 minutes at a maximum speed of 45 mph with stops at Everett, Snohomish, Woodinville Jct, Columbia Winery, Redmond Town Center.
But per BNSF, double tracking the flood plains is required.

AS: Kirkland’s not upzoning? Maybe not, but what’s this I’ve heard about Google building a campus literally next to the BNSF line?

There are several other large companies in that area also, Bungie, Clearwire, and Monolith, among others.
Kirkland also has nearly the population of Redmond (46K vs 51k) in less than half the area. (4220/sq mi compared to 1220 sq mi). A fair bit of that population density for Redmond is already served by the Overlake TC station.
The Kirkland BNSF corridor is a good bang-for-your-buck rail because it cuts right through the employment centers, as well as the residential centers.

BS: Monolith is at the S. Kirkland Park and Ride, and has about 100 employees (I worked there during the SOE buyout). Bungie’s got 40 (again, I worked with them during Halo). Clearwire might be 100. Downtown Redmond has 4-500 MS employees alone at Redmond Town Center, and there are a couple of office buildings there that we don’t have either. Downtown Redmond is seriously upzoning – they just made plans

to turn another downtown parking lot into 5 stories, and the town center is looking at developing the east parking lot (by Claim Jumper) and/or tearing down an existing parking lot to replace it with an office building, and building a larger semi-underground garage.

The business park in east Kirkland really just doesn’t cut it. You don’t have any high density residential, and those are your prime users – MS employees and Bellevue DT employees. Connecting to that Kirkland business park doesn’t add much because you don’t have good residential on the line in a decent distance.

MD: That’s Part I. There’s more to come as the conversation continues…

Liveblog: Webcast of Board Meeting

It doesn’t look like I can embed it here, but the link is here.

First Federal Way checked in with their support. Burien was next. Washington State Transit Association spoke in favor of expansion. Snohomish County Councilmember Mike Cooper just spoke in favor, talking about Ruth Fisher (the room they’re in is named after her), about improving the economy with public works projects – as Magnuson and FDR spearheaded locally and nationally.

Jim Horn (and a friend placed there to make him look even more ancient by comparison), both looking really angry (these guys always look like goblins), just pushed the ETA agenda. All he’s doing is spewing numbers… haha, the suburbs are a “market share already well served by buses”. Yeah, RIGHT. Oh, and it “doesn’t make sense” to build light rail to the eastside, either! What’s funny is that Horn, as a state senator, endorsed I-745 in 2000, which would have moved 90% of transportation funding (even ST funding) to roads. And they claim not to be anti-transit! Basically every one of the things they’ve just said are flat out lies – claims that light rail will increase congestion on I-90? Not by doubling I-90’s capacity, it won’t.

1:45: Enough with the crazies. Up next another real human being, Lisa Utter, Lynnwood City Council member, speaking out in support. Mayor Jerry Smith and councilmember Matsumoto of Mountlake Terrace, speaking in support. “If the eastside doesn’t want their money, we’ll be happy to take it on our side!” from Mayor Smith. Nice jab at ETA!

1:47: Sara Nikolic of Futurewise speaking in favor of ST2! She’s pointing out that Sound Transit was *created* to build rail, not buses. Express buses are here to build ridership for long term transit solutions that allow better land use planning, mixed use, walkable communities.

1:50: Marty Evons of Everett, who has basically no clue what’s happening on I-90. Oh, yeah, a “savings of billions” – to move fifty people instead of fifty thousand. The same crap we’ve gotten from the ETA.

1:52: Ian Terry of Issaquah, speaking out in favor – about how people’s commutes are changing, and we need to build public transportation.

1:56: Wiiiiiill Knedlik! Local anti-transit nut speaking next. “Supports putting the measure on the ballot so it can be defeated a second time.” Claims to be a rail supporter – but appears to be a conspiracy theorist, claiming Sound Transit has censored old board minutes, taking our money. He has a “handout” – oh, man, how many hundred billion does he claim ST2 is this time? Last year he claimed Sound Transit was spending a TRILLION DOLLARS. Nut.

2:00: Former Mayor of Mercer Island Aubrey Davis in support of building ST2, especially East Link. “We’ve been talking about this for forty years. Let’s get going.” He was followed with applause from the room!

2:03: John Worthington, of Renton, speaking next. He’s a PRT nut! Claims we could connect every urban center in the region with super transit pods that go everywhere and do everything. Apparently we could run these pods over the 520 bridge, too! No friction? Oh, it’s MAGLEV PODS. I love how the crazies come out for these meetings.

Tally is 9 for the system, 5 against – all either crazy or underinformed. Looks like public comment is over, I’ll update with more of interest as it comes in.

2:12: The current speaker is writing about coordination and cost estimate methodology. The Independent Review Team’s panel report essentially says “Sound Transit, you’re doing a good job planning, your methodology is good, keep it up, we’ve still got some more work to do, but keep it up.”

2:18: Consent agenda! The Board just signed the ST staff’s paychecks. My boss only wishes he got to do that at a public meeting.

2:19: Here we go, items 7A and 7B, it’s time to vote on ST2.