What’s Next

Posted on by Andrew Smith

I don’t want to move away from Prop 1’s amazing and inspiring victory this week, but I want to talk a bit about what the future holds, both for this blog and for transit in Seattle. My main motivation for starting this blog was to provide a (virtual) place to go for those interested in a transit in our area to become keep informed and to meet like minds, as well as to advocate for a Sound Transit exansion. Even though thankfully the second goal is no longer necessary, there’s still plenty going on to keep activity here into the future.

The following stories will certainly be among those that we track here over the near future:

  • Link Light Rail Opening
    Obviously, Light Rail in Seattle has not been complete yet. Central Link’s opening is going to be a huge news story here over the next 14 months. I have taken one ride on Link, and I can hardly wait to take it again. The opening is going to be a huge step for transit here, and honestly, a really fun one.
  • Metro’s funding gap
    Light Rail will be a major part of our transportaion future, but it cannot be successful without a healthy Metro. Our hugely popular bus system still has a massive funding gap, and what it takes to close that gap is an open question. Fare increases, increased advertising and possibly even service cuts are on the horizon. This is a huge issue, and Metro expects the gap to continue into 2010, so I anticipate this story to continue for some time.
  • 520 replacement
    The plan for the 520 replacement has becomclearer, but we still have no idea how it’s going to be paid for.
  • Alaskan Way Viaduct
    On the viaduct, we don’t even have agreement on an approach. Will it be a tunnel? A new elevated freeway? A retrofit? Surface and transit? And how are we going to pay for it?
  • Streetcars
    Seattle still has plans to create a streetcar system, and with Prop. 1 passing, we are gauranteed at least one more line, the First Hill streetcar. Will streetcars get expanded? Can the Waterfront Line be resurrected? Also, Tacoma also has a growing movement toward building a streetcar system.
  • Rapid Ride service
    I really worry that if Metro is forced to cut service, this will be the first to go. Hopefully service won’t be cut, Rapid Ride will be completed, and will become a great success. The first Rapid Ride route is slated for a 2010 opening.

On the advocacy side, I see some potential causes for the greater public transit good:

  • Getting Metro More Funding
    Metro is a critical part of transportation in King County – more than 17% of commutes in Seattle are taken on Metro buses – and we need it as healthy as possible. Metro has maxed-out its sales tax capacity as provided by the state law, and has a massive funding gap of about 10% of costs. Metro may be forced to cut service, which will be a tragedy not just for those who use or rely on Metro, but for traffic in our region. Other than fare-box recovery and increased advertising, there is essentially no mechanism whereby Metro can secure more funding.
    There are a few ideas floating around on how to allow for more greater funding. There do seem to be provisions in the state code to allow for the creation of transportation districts levied by either business taxes or property taxes. Ron Sims has been floating the idea of legistlation around creating such a district, and I would support this whole-heartedly. I am not completely sure about the state law surrounding this, and I will follow up on this in coming weeks. If state law does not allow such levies, we should push for either an initiative allowing for other funding sources or for our legistlators in Olympia to pass law allowing for it.
  • Light Rail transportation investment district
    It might make some sense to pass a light rail investment district to bring rail to the western side of Seattle. The monorail had massive public support before the taxes came up short and the organization fell apart. Prop 1 does provide funding for studies of light rail expansion to West Seattle and Ballard. If the numbers work out, it could be an idea worth pursuing.

There are certainly more than the list above, what’s on your mind? What do you think about these ideas?

Past and Future

Posted on by Martin H. Duke

The Times and P-I provide nice bookends this morning to the passage of Prop. 1.

First, Mike Lindblom of the Times looks back and how the Yes Campaign won against such strong economic headwinds.  No mention of blogs, but oh well.

Then, Larry Lange takes a look at what’s next: details to be hashed out, cost and revenue projections to refine, etc.  In my opinion, the more informative article; if you have time to read only one, make it this one.

Mea Culpa

Posted on by Andrew Smith

Along with Martin, I apologize for doubting a transit-only package would pass. I was clearly wrong. I have a very strong feeling that much of the credit for this year’s Prop. 1 passing goes to Barack Obama, and the enthusiasm around the candidate that drove people to the polls. We’ll never know whether last year’s Prop. 1 could have passed this year, though I doubt it would. I also don’t know if last year’s package could have passed in 2007 without roads, though it seems obvious now that it would have done better than it did tied to roads. So I was wrong, and I apologize.

Part of my bitterness last year with the Sierra Club and the Stranger was because I supported the roads portion of the proposition. Most of the roads were new HOV lanes, which are very important to good bus service, or necessary investments like the 520 bridge or the South Park Bridge. I still want many of those roads projects completed.

What I didn’t understand at the time was the actual motivation for tying the RTID roads to Sound Transit. Those in Olympia who put forth RTID don’t know how they will come up with funding to replace these bridges and create those HOV lanes, and are scared of the backlash in their districts of raising funds statewide to build roads projects in the Seattle area. The political cost is apparent in the large failure margin of I-985 in counties outside the Central Puget Sound area, where most of the benefit would have been concentrated. I know now that last year’s transit package wasn’t married to roads because anyone thought that the roads would help transit pass, they were married because the roads supporters knew the transit would help the roads pass, and Olympia wanted to punt the State’s responsibility to taxpayers in our area. I was wrong on each of these counts.

I know I upset some people by arguing that defeating RTID wouldn’t prevent global warming – global warming being the Sierra Club and the Stranger’s main argument against the package – and I still believe with that. The solution to global warming lies entirely in investment in non-fossil fuel energy sources, and the best way to achieve that end is through a carbon tax, especially an escalator carbon tax. With a carbon tax, auto makers will be forced to make more efficient cars, inventors and researchers will be encouraged and subsidized to find effective alternatives, and energy companies will be incentivized to invest in clean energy solutions. Cancelling roads projects won’t have any effect other than the statement to politicians encouraging them to get their act together on climate change. I don’t apologize for my opinion, though I am sure most of you don’t agree.

This year’s measure was also much better than last year’s. There is a little more Sounder service, and a lot more buses than last year. Sure there is less light rail, but I am confident that ultimately, we will get all the light rail from last year’s plan and more. I was wrong last year, and I am very glad that I was.