Midweek Roundup: ‘Summer of Soccer’

47 Replies to “Midweek Roundup: ‘Summer of Soccer’”

1. Another article about why U.S. transit projects are so expensive:
   https://www.slowboring.com/p/how-to-fix-transit-construction-in

   This is worth reading. When I read “rush to secure funding rather than methodically plan projects”, I immediately thought of ST3.

   1. Lots of good stuff in that, I just have to laugh at “building an AI tool to help with planning” and then suggesting building a database too. Just build the database, no one needs an AI powered query system to query a well-structured database!

      1. I’m sure there are plenty of vibecoders now who wouldn’t know how to construct a query without AI.

         1. Robert Droptable would be happy.

2. “Seattle World Cup’s biggest win: Pioneer Square pedestrian zone (KUOW)”

   True. Tuesday around lunch time, lines at many restaurants that were not that popular normally.

3. The arrival boards along Route 40 in Ballard were gradually installed in the past couple months. The new Connectpoint digital bus tops were installed at NW Leary Way & 15th Ave NW and NW Market St & Ballard Ave NW. Both feature holder for Orca reader but without Orca Reader. Many if not all the older arrival board along Route 44 corridor are still not working.

4. The emotions that I feel from reading Dow Constantine say that “The board action to update the system plan did not kill or cancel or delete or defer or postpone the Ballard project. To the contrary, it kept Ballard on schedule … ” is impossible to clearly articulate. But it’s just so wrong. There is no published date for Ballard! It is not on schedule in any normative sense of the world “schedule”. How could anyone interpret the recent Board actions as “keeping Ballard on schedule”?

   And seeing “There are several years, potentially up to six or seven years altogether, in which to identify the resources we need to bring the full project in at one time on schedule”. We have been in planning for TEN YEARS! Saying six or seven more years to identify more resources is ridiculous. A seventeen year planning period is not normal. Crossrail didn’t take that long! It was “only” 7 years between planning beginning and approval, and while construction took 14 years, we are looking at a light rail line from Ballard to Downtown Seattle being more expensive and longer than one of the most delayed and complex megaprojects undertaken in a more expensive city with a history of miserable planning processes. It should not be more expensive to build a tunnel from C/ID to Uptown than it was to build a tunnel through Central London.

   I despise it when people say “we don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem”, but it is impossible to look at ST decisions and conclude anything else. They have billions in revenue, but Seattle is still paying for planning staff for ST3. They spend millions on ad campaigns where Metro would be spending thousands. No fundamental routing choices were altered in the enterprise initiative. Still tunneling to West Seattle, still doing a center platform at Graham, still doing a deep bore tunnel two blocks away from an existing tunnel that isn’t at capacity (and won’t be if it’s upgraded). Faced with a massive shortfall, the only options taken are cutting stations permanently, delaying, and deferring.

   Maybe if Sound Transit would have hired an experienced transit executive to navigate the choppy waters ahead instead of a local politico, we’d be in a better spot. But ultimately, political reform seems like a precondition for a functional agency.

   1. I interpret it as saying that his big civil friends will still get a huge design contract for about a billion.

      The only saving grace is that the design will be complete. Never mind that they’ll have to overhaul it when automation becomes the norm before construction starts.

      At least a final design will give the City leverage when reviewing new tall building designs.

      1. Design being completed is useless if there’s not an actual plan to deliver the project. And if it takes 25 years between design and opening day, with design decisions based on planning choices from 10 years ago, we will have lines reflecting the needs of people in 2018 opening in 2043. Of course, this isn’t wholly an issue, but the time lag between planning and opening is still bad for outcomes.

   2. How much faith does the horde have in Dow “West Seattle light rail forever” Constantine in getting a Ballad light rail station on track to open this half century?

      1. I think they’re thinking that FTA will come through once we gave a transit-friendly President again.

         New Starts was originally funding lots of rail systems nationally. The thing is though that few other Metros now have their sights on urban rail subway expansions. LA K Line northern extension, BART Downtown San Jose and NYC are the only other new undergrounds that come to mind. (Even Austin’s new plan is surface only.) Everything else is a surface or aerial extension. Add to that most current systems have fewer riders since work-from-home got more popular in the last decade.

         So at the Federal level, I think it will be an intercity rail push rather than an urban subway push. I don’t expect FTA to write big checks for the project— even if the next President is pro transit.

         And the state will have its hands full with repairs and replacement projects for the existing highway network.

         1. I think it’s likely that the federal government will come through with money for this project eventually, but not nearly enough to get all the way to Ballard.

      2. I don’t believe it will go across the ship canal in this century. Probably in a couple decades, it will serve South Lake Union. Maybe a bit further.

         1. The Ballard missing link (🚲) has been around so long that it spawned a new generation of missing Link (🚆)

   3. “We have been in planning for TEN YEARS!”

      Not with 100% effort. Two-thirds of the monthly tax money available for expansion has been going to finishing Lynnwood/Federal Way/Redmond/Crosslake construction, and it still has to be used to pay down existing bonds far enough to divert a substantial part of it to ST3 projects. Some of that construction is technically ST3 projects (Redmond Tech-Downtown Redmond, KDM-Federal Way). That’s why Ballard started so late and planning is going so slowly and decisions are so late, because the construction money won’t be available until later anyway. Especially with West Seattle being put before DSTT2/Ballard.

      1. Yes, but even so it’s an inordinate amount of time. LA took 4 years to plan the D Line extension, and it will be 19 from ballot measure passing to full opening. Even the Sepulveda Line will come in under 30 years from Measure M passing and about 20 from the start of planning. LA started planning for the Sepulveda Line after Sound Transit started planning West Seattle and Ballard, but it will open before both.

         Yes, it costs money and time to do planning, but that doesn’t mean Sound Transit has done a good job on either front. Any comparison to any other transit agency reveals this. It’s shameful, and Dow Constantine just blabbers on about how it’s not a delay.

5. Dow is really Down with “The Tunnel to Nowhere”, isn’t he? While I’d be among the first to applaud a (shallower) Westlake to Seattle Center stub, he’s going to start from the south end, at SoDo, waste a billion dollars and eliminate the busway, then build his two-useless stations “north and south of CID” and the underground skyscraper at Westlake. After all the “surprises” that will be found between Massachussetts and Pine Streets, will there even be enough money to get to Denny Way and Seattle Center?

   What a disaster he has been for King County.

   1. Any early guesses on what will be the West Seattle Link opening date?

      Officially, it is still listed as December 31, 2032. But I don’t see how lots of commercial and residential property acquisitions, TBMs, a deep Alaska Junction Station, aerial tracks across SODO (TDLE was pushed back 3 years due to similar poor soils) and a tall cable stayed bridge with steel cables and structures can be completed in the next 5.5 years — along with a year of final design.

      My guess is that ST will move the date to 2036 within the next year but it actually won’t open until 2040.

   2. For clarity, I certainly should have said “for King County transit“. He was otherwise a competent and successful County Executive.

   3. Amen. Could a very high DSTT2 cost lead to another crisis and a need to reopen the Enterprise Initiative?

      The list of Dow transit missteps is longer. He led the county to sell CPS to the WSCC, ending bus operations in the DSTT prematurely and leading directly to the 2019 capacity crisis and the drop in ridership. He and Transit management was very slow to restructure service on SR-520 and in the Green River valley that could have helped with the capacity crisis. He and transit management insisted on the fall 2016 SE Seattle restructure for the ACRS; see routes 9, 106, 107, 124. He shifted the legislative ask to ST3 from Metro local option in 2015. It took eight years to simplify the fare structure after it was apparent that it was too complex for ORCA. He led ST into ST3; it is a disaster. Could CPS have been a pathway for Ballard Link via Terry Avenue? Could the WSCC have expanded on a different block? Water taxis?

6. Link’s ridership Monday (the first World Cup Match) was 210,000 according to a preliminary estimate. That puts it at #3, below the Seahawks Victory Parade day (#1) and the Crosslake Connection opening day (#2; the day also had a large No Kings march).

   “Sound Transit deployed more light rail vehicles than have ever run on the system at one time: 46 trains with a total of 174 railcars, including all 3-car trains on the 2 Line for the first time. The agency also dispatched a historic number of staff ambassadors, contracted transit security and law enforcement officers to keep passengers moving.” –ST email announcement

   1. There’s speculation that Friday may take the #1 spot as we’re hosting USA v Australia at noon, there’s a Mariners game in the evening, and it’s a federal holiday so there will be more people taking off work.

      1. I’ve made the sports ridership our Friday Roundtable topic.

   2. ST Link is now carrying more ridership than the number of riders that they will add at new stations in the next 25 years.

      I’m expecting that the public will soon see them as an operator much more than a builder or a planner going forward. Their image is going from renderings and logos to the actual trips people make.

      There will still be interest in expansion in certain corridors. But what they’re planning to open by 2050 won’t add that many riders. And half of the riders they’ll add will just shift from existing stations or from ST Express buses that will someday get cancelled.

7. “The sales tax is not a progressive funding mechanism, and we do not take that lightly.”

   I think the urbanist takes it way too lightly. This is taxing the poor to then claim to help the poor. It is nonsensical. The follow up excuse that doing it via the legislation is too hard is basically a slap in the face of the working class which is already overtaxed just because it is easier to tax them.

   Seattle and king county are going full speed to 15% in sales tax like it is a race.

   1. Taxing the poor to help the poor is common throughout the world. Look at really advanced countries like Norway, Sweden and Finland. They are known for being progressive — a model for Democratic socialists around the world. They probably do more to help the poor than any countries out there. They have a VAT tax which is basically just a sales tax. It is set at 25%. 25%! In comparison this is a very small tax that will benefit transit riders quite a bit.

      1. It works for many of western European countries because a few of those countries all have very high VAT tax rates, but meanwhile somewhere in the US, you can simply move to a neighboring country within the Metro area to save 3% of sales tax. The certain high sales tax rate is not the problem, the rate difference of neighboring jurisdictions is.

         Also, I think Seattle should consider expanding sales tax exemption. For example, New York City exempt sales tax for clothing under $110. Philadelphia has something similar. For Philadelphia, I think that policy really helps the downtown’s retail core stay competitive to suburban mega mall like King Prussia Mall.

         1. Sorry I made a very big typo here..

            “but meanwhile somewhere in the US, you can simply move to a neighboring county within the Metro area to save 3% of sales tax.”

            The example is Metro Atlanta’s Cobb County which borders Atlanta city limit has a sale tax of 6% while City of Atlanta’s sales tax is 8.9%.

            I think two suburban counties having 6% sales tax and reluctant to really exacerbate the suburbanization and compromise the sales tax revenue within the transit district in Atlanta.

         2. I doubt many people change shopping locations based on a 3% sales tax rate difference, or even know what the rate in neighboring cities is. It’s all “about 10%”. Seattle is not empty, and people still shop there.

      2. VATs are different than a sales tax. A VAT is levied at each step in production, which introduces further questions about tax incidence than a simple sales tax (which ideally is levied only on the final point of sale and is thus easier to fully pass on to a consumer). Consider an import for sale. A wholesaler buys it for $10, then sells it for $15. A 25% VAT works out to $1.25 (25% of the increment), which is equivalent to an 8.3% sales tax.

         1. VATs are different than a sales tax

            Sure, but to quote Wikipedia:

            VAT is similar to, and is often compared with, a sales tax.

            There is a section comparing the two and in the example it works out the same: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value-added_tax#Comparison_with_sales_tax. Obviously there are other examples (like the one you gave) that would result in a higher or lower tax. There are also differences in what goods and services governments decide to tax. But both taxes are widely considered regressive. https://taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/who-would-bear-burden-vat

            My point is that you are much better off with a regressive tax (that pays for important services) than really low taxes.

         2. Yes, but comparing rates is difficult even if the total revenue to the government is the same. Intermediary firms may not be able to pass all costs through, and even if they do the complication of imports and exports means consumers almost certainly do not pay the full rate. A 25% VAT rate is qualitatively different than a 25% sales tax in ways that really matter for regressivity. But I agree with the larger point, and think tax code reform and increased service provisions are essentially two different things we need, both of which can be done independently of one another

   2. The benefit of transit is higher than zero and higher than the incremental tax rate. The cost won’t add up to the thousand a month they’re paying for their car, or the hundred a month they’re paying for gas for a few trips they can’t currently use transit for or it’s too inconvenient. If the additional transit allows them to do a few fewer trips per month by car or to get rid of the car, then they’ll be ahead. “But the additional transit won’t be in the right place for everybody’s trips.” No, but on a citywide/countywide basis we have to look at averages and what helps the largest cross-section of the population.

      “Seattle and king county are going full speed to 15% in sales tax like it is a race.”

      The rate has been just this side or that side of 10% for two or three decades. There’s not enough to buy or that politicians/voters would approve to bring it up to 15% in just a few years.

      People also benefit when other people have transit access. It means there are fewer barriers to them getting to jobs or taking care of their needs, and they’ll be working to serve you. They’ll have more money in their pocket because they’re traveling more efficiently and not burning money in car, so they’ll buy more things they want and help the economy and tax base.

   3. The majority of sales taxes are still levied by the state, which levies a 6.5% sales tax. And at the end of the day, local governments can only do what the state allows them to. The legal mechanisms for paying for transit are sales taxes, car tabs, transportation impact fees*, and tolls**. There’s the possibility of an ad-hoc interlocal agreement between the City of Seattle and Metro for something like a property tax levy to pay for transit service, but that would require a lot more negotiation and legal overhead. And the progressivity of property taxes is questionable (even if I personal view them as akin to wealth taxes and relatively progressive in that sense).

      You can blame whoever you want for our regressive taxation, but I put it squarely at the foot of the state legislature. The millionaires tax is good on the surface, but it also fails to reduce the overall sales tax rate at the state level. Sales tax exemptions for diapers, OTC drugs, and hygiene products is much less impactful than reducing the sales tax rate. That’s not to say the tax should be revenue neutral, but it is to say that it doesn’t do enough to reduce the tax burden on the working class and the poor.

      *transportation impact fees can only be spent on capital projects, and they can’t generally be spent on transit-exclusive ones. Seattle also does not currently levy a transportation impact fee, so this is a further complication.

      **tolls would likely require the approval of WSDOT and the legislature.

8. East Link ridership seems to be increasing rather sharply. IIRC, May is the peak month for transit ridership so that would explain last month. But it seems to be continuing to increase through June which seasonally would suggest a drop. And I noticed this trend prior to the World Cup events but that seems to have kicked it up another notch.

   Spring District Station is gaining ridership as I think some of the office space is starting to get used. There is also a sign on the window of the building on the corner saying it is for lease if someone wants to open a restaurant or other buisness there. This is a building owned by ST.

   Wilburton is starting to get more on/off passengers. I think the hospital staff is starting to realize the train is a viable option. Not so much for doctors but the support staff for a 24/7 facility. I think they all get free parking in the garages but operating a car is not free. I’ve gone from filling the tank once a week to once a month using Link. The high cost of fuel has likely made some people switch and what’s happened at my work place is people using the train are spreading the word. You may have a longer commute but it’s no longer high stress wasted time.

   I usually commute early meaning boarding before 7AM (if you’re an engineer and you show up after 8AM the you’re either a slacker or a coder) for a trip from Bel-Red into Seattle. The train is pretty empty then both east bound and west bound. It does pick up a lot of passengers westbound at S. Bellevue and MI but still plenty of seating available. In the afternoon though it’s standing room only from Judkins Park to S. Bellevue and that continues as late as I’ve ridden Link which is from 3PM – 6PM. On Mariner games in the afternoon it’s crush loaded. I’m avoiding soccer match days. This Friday is going to be insane.

   DT Bellevue seems to get lots of on/offs in the afternoon/evening but not so much in the morning (even “late” like 9AM). I’m also seeing a lot more people with luggage heading to SEA. Lots now with soccer but even before that the airport use seems to be picking up. The biggest thing ST could do to improve East Link would be to put in a center platform in the bus tunnel. Too bad Emperor Constantine is fixated on West Seattle.

   East (of what) Main Station is still a useless waste. And while ragging on the ST board I’d remind people that Balducci was one of the major supporters of the DT Bellevue bypass tunnel. An elected board might not be ideal but it couldn’t be worse that the current system of handing out large salary jobs to connected politicians.

   1. A center platform at Pioneer Square is so obviously a good thing that it is shameful that ST did not take the necessary extra step of adding a stairway and elevator for emergency egress when it had the temporary platform.

      Put a gate at the top of the stairs that does not open from the outside and no “down” button on the elevator at the Mezzanine level to prevent people using the platform for boarding and alighting at the station. This would restrict use of the narrow platform to “reversing” transfers.

   2. The station ridership data for April shows some shifts that I wasn’t expecting:

      https://www.soundtransit.org/ride-with-us/system-performance-tracker/ridership

      U District ridership jumped as did UW. The new direct 2 Line between East Link and the UW area is likely the reason. U District is now busier than Capitol Hill as the #2 busiest station.

      ID-C jumped and I’m wondering how the system is registering transfers.

      Federal Way is already busier than Lynnwood. Even Star Lake is showing more riders than I would expect.

      SeaTac boardings look lower than last year’s data. It looks suspicious given increases elsewhere plus the Federal Way Link extension opening.

      1. Transfers are likely registered as two trips. The source of this kind of data is typically the automated passenger counters above the doors.

         1. Thanks!

            That would explain why ID-C boardings almost doubled from last April . Of course there is demand now using 2 Line eastward that was previously on a bus , but I’m guessing that half of the ridership increase is transferring between trains.

         2. Al S.,

            I think the transfers are probably a small part of that. Symphony and Pioneer Square also have ~doubled since last year too, which would make me think that most of it is people heading to the east side. I don’t think there’s much reason for most riders to transfer between the two lines to be honest. East King – south King is the highest demand ride, if the 560’s ridership is any guide (travel time is about par between the 560 and Link between Bellevue and SeaTac).

            Obviously some folks do it, but if you live in a South Seattle neighborhood you’re always better off staying on the bus. If you’re on the 7, it’s way faster to stay on to Judkins Park than transfer twice. If you’re on MLK, it’s faster to get the 106 to transfer to Judkins Park than it is to go to C/ID by almost 15 minutes. On the 36, it’s faster to stay on rather than transfer to the 1 Line just to transfer again to the 2 Line. Even if you’re deep Beacon Hill, it’s faster to take the 107 back to Rainier Beach and transfer to the 7 than transfer to the 1 Line at Beacon Hill and then a second transfer at C/ID.

   3. I wonder with an employer like Overlake Hospital, what the breakdown is on how employees get to work. 95% vehicle/5% transit? 80/20? 60/40?

      1. Overlake Medical Center is subject to the state’s Commute Trip Reduction program, which is managed locally by the City of Bellevue. The Bellevue Commute Trip Reduction Plan 2025-2029 has data on the “Drive Alone Ratio” (DAR) which is the primary metric for commute trip reduction: https://bellevuewa.gov/sites/default/files/media/pdf_document/2025/2025_2029-bellevue-ctr-plan.pdf

         Overlake Medical Center’s DAR from 2023 to 2025 was (66%), meaning 2/3 workers at Overlake Medical Center commuted by SOV, and 1/3 by other means. Bellevue has set Overlake Medical Center’s target DAR at 61.1%, which seems achievable especially now that the full 2 Line is open. I think hospitals tend to get more leniency for SOV use since their working hours don’t tend to fit with peak commutes and they all maintain large parking garages for patients.

         Ryan Packer actually just highlighted hospital parking as a major issue for the Harborview expansion: https://www.theurbanist.org/harborview-expansion-plan-hits-trouble-with-parking-costs/

9. RapidRide J line update:

   Construction has paused due to the World Cup resuming in July. Paving looks to be nearly done. There are 1.5 blocks of untouched asphalt pavement remaining, and 1.5 blocks of under construction concrete paving to complete. Across the Montlake cut cut in the U district concrete paving is completely done on 43rd St. however, asphalt paving has not begun yet on 11th Ave. after paving is complete there’s still a lot of station, trolly wire, and signal work to complete. Non of the stops in downtown have started construction, except for the one at Virginia, all concrete work for the stops in South Lake Union is complete.

   1. Funny that RapidRide J wasn’t exempted from the road work moratorium despite nearly all the traffic impacts staying in place even when work is paused.

10. La Sagrada Familia in Barcelona has been under construction for 144 years now, which is arguably its biggest claim to fame. Using this as a model, I propose we turn the Ballard Link project into a tourist attraction! If we build one station every 20 years, we can draw this out for 160 years and beat La Sagrada Familia!

    1. Realistically, we could schedule 1 station per decade, and with stoppages for wars, world cups, and republican presidents we can still reach our goal.

    2. A very slow march to a future with bad transfer station designs and longer transit travel times.

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