North by Northwest 61: A Sounder North Quarterly Ridership Report

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Thursday night, I prepped the below table for a Friday interview that hopefully will go public Sunday at 12:01 AM.  But I figured it was time to put together a ridership table for the controversial Sounder North train run.  I got the Average Mean Daily Ridership by dividing the quarterly total boardings/ridership by 65 or 13 weeks X 5 days.  I then divided that number by two to get an – arguably inflated – estimate of the users using the run round trip under “AMDR/2 for Round-Trip Estimate“.  Finally due to Sounder North’s ridership depending on among other things slides and the economy to record growth by the same quarter in the previous year.  Hopefully this helps the conversation.

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So here you go.  It appears to me from the above we’re talking about a transit service that only serves 500-600 regular commuters or so.

If you want the Excel table, please e-mail me at growlernoise-at-gmail-dot-com and put in the subject line, “SOUNDER NORTH EXCEL SPREADSHEET PLEASE”.

Also would like to embed the spreadsheet, but having no luck.


Programming Note: I also yesterday had less than optimum ridership experience using Sounder North – again partially due to a need to see the Mukilteo Station’s behind schedule progress for North by Northwest – and will write about that next week after I verify some things that affirm my views on Sounder North.  Also will hopefully, finally get an Island Transit update out the door.

WPC: “Sound Transit officials may not need any tax increase to build more light rail”

Folks, if there’s any truth in this Washington Policy Center op-ed, I think we need to discuss a potential option if we do not get ST3.  Most of us here are not too keen on extending the spine to Everett with an expensive Paine Field detour of questionable value when a better bus network & a vastly improved marketing campaign would work wonders.  Almost all of us here are of the view that Ballard needs a light rail spur.

So when I came across these Washington Policy Center allegations, I had to share so we could discuss this:

Sound Transit officials may not need any tax increase to build more light rail.  How?  Because of the revenue that is hidden in the way Sound Transit officials calculate their future borrowing costs.

Sound Transit officials’ most recently adopted financial plan through 2023 assumes they will borrow $7.3 billion at a 5.75% interest rate, paid off over 30 years.  Their interest rate cost assumption is high, especially since they are actually issuing debt now at far-lower interest rates.

In 2012 Sound Transit officials borrowed $216 million at a rate of only 2.62%, less than half of what they assume as their future interest rate cost.  Just a few months ago, they borrowed $1.3 billion as a federal TIFIA loan at a 2.38% interest rate.  The TIFIA loan can be paid off over 40 years, and the first payment isn’t due until 2028!  Today, Sound Transit could borrow money for 30 years at fixed interest rates between 2% to 3% (or at lower variable rates), about half of its current budget assumption.

So what does this mean?

If Sound Transit officials simply changed their financial plan to assume a more-realistic 3% interest rate, they could borrow an additional $2.2 billion without raising regressive taxes and keep their debt payments the same.   That is enough public money to build light rail to downtown Redmond (approximately $800 million) and build much of the line from Ballard to U.W. (approximately $1.7 billion) without raising regressive tax rates at all.

Sound Transit’s financial report shows the agency thinks it can only borrow $7.3 billion at current tax rates, when they may actually be able to borrow closer to $9.4 billion without raising taxes.  This is not fair to the taxpayers.

We agree with using conservative estimates and careful budgeting by public agencies, but in this case, the interest rate estimates Sound Transit officials are using are extreme, and come at the expense of the taxpayers.

I am of the view we do need these projects as a state.  I am also of the view we need to force Snohomish County to come to reality about their transit situation.  I am finally unqualified to speak of transit needs between Tacoma & Seattle – I will leave that to the comment threads.  But this is something we in the STB community need to discuss and have a no-new-taxes contingency plan ready to unite behind and present to Sound Transit’s Board if necessary either if the legislature nips ST3 in the bud or the voters reject ST3.

One last thing: If you have evidence the above WPC op-ed is untrue, present it.  Otherwise…

North by Northwest View 16: Quit With the “Road Diets”…

Yeah, those silly “road diets”.  According to WikiPedia, road diets are:

A road diet, also called a lane reduction or road rechannelization, is a technique in transportation planning whereby the number of travel lanes and/or effective width of the road is reduced in order to achieve systemic improvements.

Actually road diets are Beyond Stupid.  Just as much as putting more lanes on I-5… Recently the Washington Policy Center’s Bob Pishue punded away:

As Sound Transit officials prepare to take over the center lanes of I-90, their newest online advertisement asks the question, “What’s to do when we’re running out of roads?”(Their edited clip was originally from a video promoting highway building.) Unsurprisingly, their answer is to build light rail.

Yet they completely ignore the fact that public officials have continually pushed to make the public “run out” of roads. State officials are reducing the six-lane viaduct to a four-lane tunnel, guaranteeing traffic snarls around Seattle. Sound Transit is taking away the center lanes of I-90 for light rail, which the State Department of Transportation estimates will increase traffic congestion despite restriping the outer lanes. Seattle’s leaders have added to gridlock by handing over roads around the city to streetcars, transit, and bike paths. Instead of providing more general purpose access on the new SR-520 Bridge for the traveling public, state lawmakers opted instead for a new bike path and HOV/transit lanes.

Getting around is already tough out there, but it gets even tougher when public officials take away road access then say we are “running out” of capacity.

According to the aforementioned WikiPedia article, road dieting also is a problem for buses:

Road diets can negatively affect the speed and reliability of transit service operating on the roadway, particularly if bus stops are located in pullouts and traffic queues delay buses attempting to re-enter traffic. Constructing bus bulbs can mitigate these effects though this feature results in delays for other vehicles.

So what do we do?  Well then:

  1. New road lanes have limited effectiveness
  2. Use better the roads we have – and if road dieting is about safety, then reduce the speed limit
  3. Never forget real congestion relief is mass transit
  4. Require new facilities like museums & airport terminals have baked in transit structural & scheduled capability.

North by Northwest 60: Update on the Tri-County Connector Crisis

Boarding an Island Transit Tri-County Connector 411W Bus at March's Point, Anacortes

AvgeekJoe Photo: Boarding an Island Transit Tri-County Connector 411W Bus at March’s Point, Anacortes

Folks, the future of the Tri-County Connectors is uncertain but I promised you an update.  As you may know, Representative Dave Hayes has put on the table a modest proposal to, “provide $1 million to restart an important bus transit route that, until last June, operated between Camano Island and Everett.”  The catch is that fares must be charged to access the money.

Recently, the Island Transit Board had a discussion about this and is tentatively supportive of Representative Hayes’ efforts:

One thing worth noting is that it’s now 21 April and no final decision has been made even to keep the County Connectors going.   Island County Commissioner Jill Johnson (Republican) is really attempting to force the beginning of public hearings on the service change with more passion and vigor than Island County Commissioner Rick Hannold’s (Republican) pontificating bordering on rambling about the need for a fare.

One should note that come Friday will be 67 days before the possible end of this service.  Sixty seven days.  Yet it seems Island Transit Board has been timid since knowing there was a crisis in November.  At least Island Transit staff have a contingency plan if there is no state support.  If I may quote from my recent feature on the Tri-County Connector crisis:

…These proposed connections are highly problematic.  That’s if Island Transit Board … decides to keep the Island County Connector.  One option, called “Proposal 2” and page four (4) of this Scribd link shows a proposal to only serve Deception Pass.  For Skagit Transit (Skagit County’s county level transit net), they’d have to make it to Cornet Bay to link up with Island Transit at all.

The other option best explained on page 8 shows a schedule that allows commuters to get off the main islands of Island County, but not necessarily get back.  Commuters seeking to leave Whidbey would have to be ready to accept a 3 PM departure from Harbor Station, Oak Harbor to arrive at Skagit Station at 4 PM.  The bus would then depart at 4:10, run to Camano and arrive at 4:40 PM – passing the bus going the other way.  To get from Camano to Whidbey you’d have to leave Camano at 3:30 PM, arrive Skagit Station at 4:05 PM, then leave Skagit Station, Mount Vernon at 4:15 to arrive at Harbor Station, Oak Harbor at 5:15 PM.  So if you work in Everett and need to get to Camano in the afternoon but miss that first northbound Skagit Transit 90X connection from Everett to Skagit Station, Mount Vernon which supposed to arrive at 4 PM but can easily be delayed… you are totally stranded.

So what is the solution?  One option may be delaying these runs until starting at 5 PM or 6 PM.  There already are plans for a northbound run starting at 6:35 AM and another southbound run at 6:45 AM.  Or chucking the 9:35 AM northbound & 9:55 AM southbound routes and making another late afternoon or early evening run.

With this Proposal 1 in play thanks to Representative Dave Hayes, the focus should be on commuters.  Doubly so with fares being required to get the $1 million state match for the biennium.  Gone are the days when a $6 million biennium start-up grant could be lobbied for this route.  Make sure to e-mail info-at-islandtransit.org your thoughts on this

But even with the recent fiasco around ORCA & Link Light Rail, I’m sure many of you would agree with Representative Hayes, “Riders need to have skin in the game.  All other transit systems are charging a fare. Many people who were using the Island Transit Everett Connector before it closed told me they would have gladly paid the fare, especially if it would have kept the route open. They’re willing to pay, so this amendment makes that a requirement in order to release those funds.”

Ultimately, let’s hope Friday the Island Transit Board will at least commit to the route and public outreach.  67 days to go… with a state legislature giving signals of going into indefinite deadlock over budgets.


In other Island Transit news, Oak Harbor Mayor Scott “Studley” Dudley who is widely credited with removing Martha Rose from the Island Transit Executive Director position last year is not seeking reelection due to his inability to work with the Oak Harbor City Council.  However, former Island Transit Boardmember Jim Campbell who graciously resigned from the Island Transit Board last year will give current Oak Harbor City Councilman Bob Severns a run for the money in the quest to be Mayor of Oak Harbor, Island County’s largest municipality.  If the Whidbey News-Times newsroom are worth their salaries, they’ll ask about Island Transit.

It’s safe to say North by Northwest would have endorsed “Studley” for Mayor based on cleaning Island Transit up and forcing the discussion of new revenue streams to Island Transit.  His looming presence and legacy in the Island Transit debate will be deeply missed.

North by Northwest 59: Polite Reminder on Everett Transit Service Change…

Your Mr. North by Northwest is slammed this week, so between the big comment thread from Sunday’s open thread on the main page and my workload, I’m just going to take five to post a polite reminder of the last two Everett Transit the August 2015 service change planning meetings:

Monday, April 20, 2015
5 p.m. – 7 p.m.
Everett Station, Dan Snow Room
3201 Smith Avenue

Tuesday, April 21, 2015
10 a.m. – 12 p.m.
Everett Public Library, Evergreen Branch
9512 Evergreen Way

I come down on the side that since money is being spent on these public meetings by the transit agencies we cover, maybe we at Seattle Transit Blog should be advertising them… and encouraging attendance.  Whether it’s to discuss the service changes, give an atta-girl (or atta-boy), or concerns with the agency in question; methinks we’re cheerleaders for transit service.


Programming Update: Whidbey-Skagit-Snohomish Tri-County Connector update tomorrow, I promise now that I’ve got the video.  After-action report from this meeting sometime this week…

PTI, but Mr. North by Northwest has a Photo of the Week to share…

Your humble North by Northwester correspondent who asked you at one point to Please Photograph Transit wanted to rekindle our passion for photographing transit w/ Sound Transit’s choice of a Photo of the Week:

Sound Transit Photo of the Week

Sound Transit Photo
Photo for week of April 17, 2015

The fashionable ride

You already knew that Link was fashionable, but a photo shoot at SODO Station this week made it official. The photo shoot was for Seattle Fashion Week, June 11-13, to encourage people to take transit to the show.
http://seattlefw.net/home.aspx

Food for thought folks… hopefully helping you advocate for transit in a non-confrontational, collaborative and artistic way.

North by Northwest 58: Everett Transit Annual Service Change Outreach

https://flic.kr/p/fc7Sea
Frank Boston Photo: “Everett Transit New Hybrid Buses (one is mine!)”

Everett Transit has some serious changes in the works for August.  Such changes include increase frequency on Route 7 to reach out to North Everett & Everett Community College, thin some routes and eliminate the Everett Station to/from Everett Mall express (Route 701) that hasn’t worked out.  Below are the remaining meetings to give input:

Thursday, April 16, 2015
4 p.m. – 6 p.m.
Everett Public Library, Evergreen Branch
9512 Evergreen Way

Monday, April 20, 2015
5 p.m. – 7 p.m.
Everett Station, Dan Snow Room
3201 Smith Avenue

Tuesday, April 21, 2015
10 a.m. – 12 p.m.
Everett Public Library, Evergreen Branch
9512 Evergreen Way

Alternatively you may submit comments by email or call Everett Transit at 425-257-7777.  The Service Change Proposal Brochure is here.

North by Northwest View 15: HEY SEATTLE LEGISLATORS, NORTH BY NORTHWESTERS COUNTING ON YOU TOO…

First, these are my personal views after spending several hours doing other work to calm down after reading some hand-wringing over ST3.   After reading the hand-wringing and hearing the gawdawful sissy excuse-making below from The Stranger, one must wonder if Seattle legislators have the right guts & glory to get ST3’s flag on the hill so voters can decide without a Drill Sergeant giving them discipline & focus:

In an April 1 meeting, Ric Ilgenfritz, Sound Transit’s Executive Director of Planning, Environment and Project Development, issued a warning to a group of a transit advocates: “If one person gets pissed off, this whole thing can crash.”

Well, here’s one person who’s already pissed off: Representative Reuven Carlyle, the Democrat whose district covers downtown Seattle, Queen Anne, Magnolia, and Ballard.

“I’m pretty sure that as much as we’re committed as a delegation and a region to being 110 percent supportive of Sound Transit, [ST3] didn’t come down from Mount Sinai written in stone,” Carlyle told me yesterday, his voice cracking at times with almost Biblical anger. “Just because they want it doesn’t, in and of itself, make it religiously pure.”

“They’re asking for taxing authority that comes out of our pocket,” Carlyle adds. “Of course they would like it. I would like ice cream as well.”

Carlyle’s beef with ST3 is that it relies, in part, on what he says is the state’s portion of property tax authority, which he believes the state needs in order to properly fund education. In other words, he fears we’re about to sacrifice education funding on the altar of improved mass transit.

Sound Transit has requested a property tax of up to 25 cents per $1,000 property value to fund ST3. “That $0.25 is ‘in the gap,'” Carlyle explains, “meaning it effectively uses the state’s portion of the property tax.”

. . .

“Reuven’s concerns are legitimate,” says Farrell (D-North Seattle), “and are something that are shared, as we’re trying to figure out the McCleary [education funding] issue.”

It’s up to the Seattle delegation to play hardball, she argues, against the Republicans, who are pitting transportation against education. “My constituents care about trains and they care about education,” she says. “In an ideal world, we’re not having these debates next to each other.”

Newsflash: Rep. Carlyle with much business experience (i.e. he can actually make a decision and I wish he’d have spoken up last year) might actually have a point and I would encourage you to read the whole article before passing judgement on his concerns.  I’m sure in the next 24 hours oh… the Washington Policy Center Transportation Pundit that I’ve helpfully passed the link to, the Seattle Transit Blog main page, and G*d knows who else is going to pounce on this as an excuse to kill ST3.

Now our supposedly reliable ally Rep. Farrell who according to her bio is, “an attorney with a focus on mediation, and her past professional experience includes working as the Executive Director of Transportation Choices Coalition, an organization dedicated to expanding bus, rail, bicycle and pedestrian transportation options. Her biggest accomplishment – bringing together transit and road advocates in support of transportation initiatives that secured billions in transit funding – is also a top priority in Olympia” is seemingly about to drop out of the ST3 fight.  Oh and smearing Republicans is a) really ignorant and b) a really quick way to get ST3 killed – we North by Northwesters are fighting hard just to save a basic bus inter-county connector route with bipartisan opposition both behind us and in front of us.

Hey Representative Farrell: It’s not Republicans who are pitting transportation against education and it’s bipartisan Senate negotiating team who put on the table 10 cents per $1,000 of assessed value property tax increase for Sound Transit.  It’s Sound Transit knowing voters might get nervous at using other taxation authority decided to request 25 cents per $1,000 of property value.  Furthermore, I agree that;

Screwing around with ST3 risks scuttling its chances altogether, according to Transportation Choices Policy Director Andrew Austin. “The Sound Transit board asked for this suite of taxes for a reason,” he says, “and removing one of the three legs of this funding proposal could jeopardize ST3 both politically and financially.”

So Rep. Farrell, got anything to say for yourself?  Personally, I hope you tonight get yourself in a quiet room, pull yourself together via mediation as I have, apologize to Republicans – especially the Republicans who’ve compromised to get ST3 this far & who’ve carried the torch for transit like me, and bounce back realizing ST3 is imperfect but one of the big things we need for Seattle, Paine Field and a few other under served areas.  It’s beyond time to fall in, salute and get ready for one last gallant rush up Curtis Hill on the Yakima Firing Range in a somewhat cynical political version of “the King of the Hill” playground game to raise the ST3 flag like in another playground game called “Capture the Flag”.  HOO-RAH and fall in!

Oh and you guys wanna fiddle with the tax code – put it to voters in 2016 as an initiative and maybe many if not most of us writing & reading at STB will vote for it :-).  We just don’t have time for Tax Policy 101 at the 2 minute warning here.  Just get ST3 on the ballot and learn next time, the appropriate time to speak up to fix a major project proposal is when the proposals are being drafted and put through committee – as I very much spoke up last year.  Not when we’ve got to get a transportation package out of the State House, reconcile with the State Senate, then have the two chambers vote on reconciliation, then get the Governor’s signature and then off to the 2016 campaign – all within the next two weeks.  A lot is riding on ST3 and that transportation package, please keep this in mind.


Again, these are my personal views.  I’m rather strident in them not just because of the Paine Field angle – that I’m willing to compromise on, but because we need to replace Sounder North with something safer & better, we need a state transportation package, Snohomish County needs light rail at least to Lynnwood – preferably Everett, and I’m convinced we need Seattle to have east-west subways.  We North by Northwesters also desperately, oh so desperately need congestion relief – and that’s mass transit where 1% of the vehicles take 25% of the commuters off of I-5!!!

North by Northwest 57: Senator Bailey Is On the Case…

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State Senator Barbara Bailey, R, 10th LD

Just wanted to reassure all my readers that Senator Barbara Bailey is on the Island Transit county connector case.  One of Senator Bailey’s aides reached out yesterday to assure me, the County Connectors are Senator Bailey’s “number one transportation priority” and is very much working with Representative Dave Hayes on kick-starting Island Transit, Version 2.0.

Today the Everett Herald kindly quoted the State Senator as saying in support of Rep. Hayes’ rescue, “We as a state realize Island Transit is trying very hard to recover,” she said. “I think the time has come for them to charge fares. The cost of operating a transit system that is very much needed needs to be shared by everyone.”

I’m sure the Senator would agree with this archived Seattle Transit Blog post by Roger Valdez, one of Seattle’s intelligentsia, defending the virtue of fares:

The flawed logic comes home to roost when you consider that if we simply stopped charging for transit at the fare box—essentially creating a system wide “free ride zone”—then all those other taxes we pay would get more expensive to make up the difference. Sure, prices at the fare box have gone up, but abolishing them would mean all the other times we pay for transit would just get more expensive.

I would suggest to the We Won’t Pay folks that it is “free” that got us into this mess in the first place. The idea—as suggested on the We Won’t Pay website—that society and the economy should provide “Everything for Everyone” is what has driven government policy for the last 6 decades.

One would hope now Senator Curtis King (Republican) could please support this State House amendment to the transportation budget.  Please.

North by Northwest View 14: Public Comment for Island Transit’s 13 April 2015 Meeting

http://i.imgur.com/WypY1n7l.jpg
Author photo from recent Island Transit Board Meeting

Below is my written public comment for the 13 April 2015 Island Transit Special Meeting.  I have a $!%&@*^ last minute schedule conflict, so here goes.


As I cannot attend the Island Transit Board Special Meeting for 13 April due to a family situation, this is my public comment.  Please accept and share.

First, I strongly support a fare on Island Transit’s connector routes.  The message is transit users will pay up front for the transit services we use instead of just rely on sales tax subsides.  That only makes sense.  Furthermore, charging fares cause the Island Transit governance triad (board, director & director’s staff and upcoming driver’s union) to realize they have a financial stake in being responsive to riders and letting riders give input before decisions are made as riders’ fares replace grant dollars.

Second, I support with reservations Proposal 1 that was drawn up 23 March.  Proposal 1’s last transit runs should start Northbound at 6 PM and Southbound at 6:30 PM so as to help commuters.  It is very clear to me that as Republicans are on the rise in the state legislature and wish to focus on “congestion relief” we focus the County Connectors on serving commuters.  We need to realize we will likely be asking for further state financial aid and as such by being on-message with their goal of “congestion relief” we can work collaboratively to accomplish the same goal.  Furthermore by showing transit can result in effective congestion relief and helping keep disabled persons off of the dole, we align Island Transit with traditional small-c conservative causes making it more palatable to support Island Transit, Version 2.0.

Third, I did a bit of mathematics Sunday night in my consternation both at my absence and at Proposal 1’s too early final runs.  With Representative Hayes’ $1 million for the biennium and if Skagit Transit was willing to participate alongside us, we could buy back each year not three runs each way at a combined annual cost of $143,547.46 as per Proposal 1 per service day but theoretically a bit over ten (10) with $500,000 per year.

So I propose Northbound shuttles at 5:35, 6:35, 7:35, 9:35, 4:00, 5:00, 6:00 & 7:00.  Southbound shuttles can start at 5:55, 6:45, 7:55, 9:55, 3:30, 4:30, 5:30 & 6:30.  Notice each shuttle is only 8 not 10.  I did that so there was some money left over to install fareboxes and as a strategic reserve if there’s a drop-off in ridership, or if I’ve oversimplified the situation.

Special thanks to Representative Dave Hayes for stepping up.  Just as I hope the first P-8A Poseidon to NAS Whidbey Island is named the USS Jim Slowik after his work on the P-8A basing, I hope when these buses for these shuttles are named – they’re named the Scott Dudley Express and the Dave Hayes Express.