Raise the Gas Tax Now

Since the breathless predictions I linked to this summer apparently aren’t going to happen, I was going to write a piece on how it’s a great time to raise the gas tax.  However, Michael Kinsley has covered all the main political points in Time, while  Mike Lillis in The Washington Independent goes a little deeper into the economics, for those of you so inclined.

All I can add is that this is equally good advice at the state level.  Kinsley’s right that there’s no reason, in principle, to object to the gas tax unless your policy goal is to maximize gasoline consumption.  In any other case, the state could take the money to cut other taxes or subsidize whoever it is you think is being hurt by this proposal.

UPDATE: Of course, here in this state our wonderful state constitution restricts our ability to offset the impact of tax increases by forcing it to all be spent on roads.   There’s another thing Olympia could fix if they weren’t obsessed with asphault.

Weekend Tax Rumors

We’re late on this, but Seattlest contributor Brad took the recent Department of Licensing MVET goof to its logical conclusion and pointed out that there’s probably been a hiccup in sales tax collection as well, one that potentially dwarfs the $3 million involved in the MVET program.  Assuming his facts are right, it’s a good point, but one that probably doesn’t have a lot of practical implications.

The only thing I have to add is that there are 95,000 vehicle owners affected by the MVET, which is probably roughly the number of adults in the affected areas.  A 0.4% sales tax figures to cost the median adult about $55 a year and has been collected for 12 years.  That comes out to about $62 million, but that assumes that those relatively rural areas have the same median income as the area as a whole; assumes residents do no shopping in the district proper; and ignores inflation over the past decade.  I think it’s safe to say that the total impact is something substantially less than that figure, so loose talk about “hundreds of millions” is probably not correct.

Given these uncertainties, and other practical difficulties Brad himself points out, I don’t see a practical remedy as simple as that for MVET.  I think sloppy state agencies deserve scolding, as well as legislators who made the district boundary as complicated as possible.  But a figure in the low tens of millions of dollars is serious money, enough to do a freeway ramp or other practical project.  I’d rather use that money to build a project they participated in the vote for than attempt to reconstruct 12 years of purchase records.

But, of course, I would say that.

Photo, taken somewhere East of Sammamish, by Panoramio contributor franklin18136.

More Transit Lanes

Lost in the general transit-palooza of the viaduct options is this little paragraph under surface/transit:

Examples of other surface street changes include new transit lanes on Madison, Stewart, Olive and Howell streets, among others, and converting Third Avenue to transit-only all day in downtown.

This is a big, big deal.  As the endless streetcar comment threads attest, transit in its own right-of-way is the difference between a miserable trip and one that beats driving.

In the longer run, this’ll make it a lot easier for people to take transit to the Capitol Hill light rail station, too.

If Third Avenue is to become a transit mall, surely there isn’t a need for four lanes.  Two in each direction and a center lane for passing should be adequate.  I’ll leave it to the urban design folks to dream up things to do with that space, though I imagine a separated bike lane is pretty high up on the list.

Assuming the Governor picks this option…

Prop. 1 Precinct Maps

STB super-illustrator Oranviri has done it again.

Raw data here.

Some random comments:

  • Yes, the maps have the proposed Sound Move stations, not the actual Central Link or ST2.  Get over it.
  • You can compare this map with a 1999 median income map for kicks.
  • Given his constituency, Mayor Nickels was pretty smart to get out in front on ST2.
  • That huge blue block in the Southwest corner is Fort Lewis.  People that live on base pay no sales tax at the PX, and many have experience of other metro areas. (?)
  • We knew this already, but Aaron Reardon, Deanna Dawson, and Paul Roberts really delivered Snohomish County.

What do you learn from this?  Share in the comments.

Uh-oh.

From President-Elect Obama’s weekly address today:

Second, we will create millions of jobs by making the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s. We’ll invest your precious tax dollars in new and smarter ways, and we’ll set a simple rule – use it or lose it . If a state doesn’t act quickly to invest in roads and bridges in their communities, they’ll lose the money .

Emphasis mine.  Good policy?  Sure.  But let’s just say that our 4 layers of local government and local-planning-by-ballot-measure may not hold up too well under these sorts of constraints.

No one tell the NIMBYs when the meetings are this time…

Image: Jon Lok, Seattle Times

UPDATE: It seems Brad at Seattlest made almost exactly the same point a few hours before I did.  Great minds think alike, I guess.

More Election Data

We’ve discussed the King County results before, but now precinct data is out for both Snohomish and Pierce Counties.  (For Pierce, scroll all the way down to page 50.)

STB benefactor Oranviri may put together some maps for of us over the weekend, but in the meantime here are some raw numbers by Legislative District.  The Snohomish aggregates are courtesy of commenter Cascadian.

Pierce
27th:    57.24%     Central Tacoma
28th:    52.94%     University Place, W. Lakewood, Steilacoom
29th:    50.08%     Parkland, Lakewood
25th:    44.80%     Fife, Puyallup
31st:    44.29%     Sumner, Bonney Lake
2nd:     41.34%     Orting, Roy

Snohomish
32nd    58.16%     Edmonds
21st     57.12%     Edmonds/Lynnwood/Mukilteo
1st       53.86%     Bothell/Brier/Mountlake Terrace
38th     52.17%     Everett
44th     50.15%     Mill Creek/E. Everett

Bus Violence

Thursday’s P-I had an interesting article about rider-on-driver violence and Metro’s efforts to combat it.  Basically, they’ve shifted from off-duty police officers to a dedicated transit police force, and seems to have some positive effects.

It should surprise no one that the No. 7 is by far the worst route, with ten times the usual number of assaults.  That’s partly because the 7 has the heaviest ridership in the system, but it’s also because of socioeconomic problems in the Rainier Valley.

Since the 7 and Central Link will serve more or less the same population, there’s both a danger and an opportunity here for Sound Transit.  Because there’s a limited number of stations and many more riders per vehicle, it’s much more cost-effective to provide comprehensive security at stations at ground zero of a low-intensity gang war.  On the other hand, if ST lets these kinds of problems develop on the train, just a few incidents will gain Link a reputation for being dangerous and other neighborhoods will become hesitant to give “that element” easy access to their neighborhoods, opening the door for Tim Eyman or the legislature to come in and mess everything up.

We have a situation where the cost of prevention is small and the consequences of failure could be fairly severe.  I suggest they invest in the prevention.

ST 2009 SIP available

In case you’re not up on your acronyms, Sound Transit’s draft 2009 Service Implementation Plan is up on the web.  There’s over 100 pages of stuff; some of it (as the name implies) is the service plan for next year and several years afterward.  The big service changes in 2009 are the route modifications to the 554, 555, and 556.  You may not have heard this, but there’s apparently some sort of train opening up next year as well.

The real meat, however, is extremely detailed ridership data for every route in the system.  If you have a couple of hours to spare, it makes for pretty informative reading.

Partial Prop. 1 Vote Breakdown

UPDATE Below.

We don’t have the precinct maps yet, but I found the breakdown of Proposition 1 votes by legislative district on the King County Website.  Semi-official illustrator of STB Oranviri generated this map for your viewing pleasure:

Note that the results apply to the King County portions of the districts only; in many cases only a fraction of the district was eligible to vote on the measure.

The results, in tabular form, are below the jump.  A big pat on the back to the 36th district (Ballard, Magnolia, Belltown) who supported Prop 1 overwhelmingly, despite those neighborhoods largely not being served by light rail.

Continue reading “Partial Prop. 1 Vote Breakdown”

ST Express Service Changes

The latest issue of ST’s Regional Transit News includes a proposal to speed up the 554, and do a major re-route of the 555 and 556 between DT Bellevue and the Eastgate P&R.

The 554 would stop only on the HOV access ramp and continue on to Issaquah or Seattle, rather than circle around to the bays in front of the garage.  This would save five minutes each way, allowing more service along the corridor, while adding a 900 ft. walk for those that have to transfer.

As someone who will have to do that walk, but is also reasonably young and fit, I’m comfortable with a short walk to prevent torturous routing.  I don’t know where they’d get the money to do this, but it would be especially nice to duplicate or move the elevator in the SW corner of the garage to the Southeast corner, to allow easy access from the 142nd Ave bridge.

As for the 555 and 556, they’d travel via Bellevue Way and the South Bellevue Park and Ride.  This would  speed up the total trip time by about 5 minutes, in addition to improving connections between S. Bellevue P&R (a future light rail site?) and numerous other places.   I’m certainly excited that in 2020 there would be reasonably direct route from Eastgate and Issaquah to the station.

Between the two routes, the only stop that would go away is the Factoria stop on the 555, to be replaced by the one at S. Bellevue.  Keep in mind that each of these routes only goes in one direction during peak times.

The changes are expected to occur in June.

PTBA Campaigns

To stir the pot a little more, here’s the voter’s pamphlet statement for the Snohomish County Public Transit Benefit Area.  No one bothered to submit a No statement, which is a pretty good indicator there wasn’t much of a campaign.  This August’s Everett Herald article seemed to indicated clear sailing.

Thanks to the insane requirement that every ballot measure be named Proposition 1, I have no doubt that a substantial chunk of voters thought they were voting on light rail.  It would be nice to see a breakdown of votes by people who actually read their ballot.

NYT: Tram Sales Booming

While the U.S. government tries to prop up bloated, inefficient carmakers, European tram companies are making big money providing what cities actually need: streetcars and light rail cars.

I’m enough of a free trader to not really care where light rail cars come from, and perhaps the death of the American Streetcar industry is long past and neither worth obsessing over, nor worth rectifying through some sort of subsidy program.

But if the choice is between subsidizing a shrinking industry making cars, or a growing one making electric transit, the latter would seem to make more sense.

PTBA and Rural Sounder

Before we get too far into planning Sounder to Stanwood, Marysville, Orting, Olympia, and God knows where else, I think it’s useful to apply a little reality check from the last election.

This blog spent about 0.01% of its time in 2008 worrying about it, but there was a ballot measure in Snohomish County to extend the Public Benefit Transit Area to the Southeastern part of Snohomish County. This would have been a 0.9% sales tax increase to bring signficant bus service into these areas, which aren’t that far from Downtown Seattle in the grand scheme of things.

To make a long story short, this relatively modest measure got killed in the strongest possible pro-transit tailwind.

Areas like this, in general, contain dispositionally transit-averse voters who will contribute relatively little in terms of tax revenue and make it harder to pass needed measures.  Furthermore, people that live in these areas and work in major regional job centers are indicating a pretty strong preference to live as rural a lifestyle as possible, inconsistent with the growth that makes high-quality transit worthwhile.

I’m all for more Amtrak service to facilitate the occasional trip to or from Seattle, but subsidizing this kind of daily commute is not where we want to dedicate resources.

Image of Maltby from Flickr contributor Don Decoud.

Another Chance to Board a LINK Train

The Rainier Vista Boys and Girls Club (1.5 blocks north of Columbia City Station) is having its grand opening this Saturday, November 15.

Between 10:30 and 11:30, the VIPs (including Ron Sims and Greg Nickels) are going to speak.  If that weren’t enough, Sound Transit is parking a LINK train at the station and allowing people to board.  If you missed your last shot at the MLK street fair, now’s your big chance.

Sound Transit Circa 2023

STB Flickr pool superstar Oranviri has a Tube-style map of the system we’ll have in 2023, if all goes well.  He has to speculate a bit about Eastside Commuter Rail and some of the “Future Corridors” ST3 stuff, but it’s absolutely gorgeous.

If this were a poster, and my wife could stand it, it would end up framed on our wall.

Veterans Day Service Reductions

In my world, one of the annoyingly ironic things about Veterans Day is that it wasn’t a work day for me until I actually became a veteran, thanks to job changes and the like.

Although some people will feel a different kind of frustration because it’s harder for them to get to work, your commute shouldn’t be affected unless you ride the Sounder or your route travels near the UW.

Full info for Metro and Sound Transit.