Implications of the West Seattle Link Cost

Pundits claim West Seattle had been added to the ST3 plan by politicians envious that Ballard gets a light rail connection. It seemed easy to draw another line on the map, but now that Sound Transit published the final Environmental Impact Statement for the West Seattle Link Extension (WSLE) it has become evident that it is far more complex than anticipated. While the ST3 measure promised to bring 37,000 riders for $1.5 billion ($2.4B in 2024 dollars) by 2030, now the price tag has tripled to $7.1 billion (in 2024 dollars), and completion is delayed to 2032, and the ridership forecast for 2042 (after WSLE is connected to the current downtown tunnel) is only 27,000 new riders systemwide.

The delays and cost explosions are directly related to the apparently-unexpected complexity of building the extension as drawn in 2016. The route needs to roller-coaster up over the Duwamish and Pigeon Point, down into the Delridge Valley, and then back up to the Alaska Junction. To ensure southward expansion in the distant future, the station at Alaska Junction was rotated to be north-south, requiring more property takings. To avoid disturbing the Duwamish superfund site, the new bridge needs to stay away from the river shore. The SODO soil is prone to liquefaction in an earthquake, so the elevated guideway pilings have to be extra deeper than normal. The Pigeon Point slope is unstable and requires large retaining walls. The initial setup for tunneling is expensive, even if the tunnel is relatively short.

Sound Transit staff told the Board the more expensive Preferred Alternative would require third party funding, but now they’re assuming Seattle, King County, and Sound Transit will somehow find the funding, which is implausible given the large shortfall. If the Board decides to proceed with the current plan, they may choose the same approach as they did during the pandemic finance crunch (“realignment”): delay delivery until they collect enough cash from tax payers to avoid breaking the debt ceiling. 

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Weekend Roundup: Ballard Bridge Closure

Historic Postcard, circa 1920’s. Courtesy of the Seattle Municipal Archives, #9901_01_008.

Ballard Bridge will be closed tonight (9/27, 7 pm) to Monday (9/30, 5 am). SDOT has advice on how to get around.

Transit News:

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News Roundup: See Track? Think Train!

Item 4017, Seattle Municipal Archives. 7th & Virginia, looking northwest up 7th Ave across Westlake. April 25, 1930. Compare with today.

Transit Updates:

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RapidRide J Line – Final Design and Recap

SDOT recently announced RapidRide J Line construction will start in October, with service planned to launch in 2027. RapidRide J will travel from downtown Seattle to University District via Eastlake Avenue replacing Route 70.

According to SDOT, the two years of construction will build the following:

  • 15,130 feet of repaired sidewalks
  • 2 miles of repaved roadway
  • 3.7 lane-miles of protected bike facilities
  • 2 miles of bus priority lanes
  • 177 improved crosswalks
  • 33 intersections with traffic signal improvements, including 253 new traffic signal devices
  • 190 newly planted trees

The project heading to construction has evolved somewhat since planning for a high-capacity transit corridor on Eastlake started in 2011, which eventually became RapidRide J in 2019.

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First Week, Part 3

It’s the seventh day of the restructure, and Link had power outages this week. How are things today?

Mini news roundup:

What happened to RapidRide G this week and how is Metro fixing it? (Ryan Packer, The Urbanist)

How to deal with cost overruns in light rail extensions? (Stephen Fesler, The Urbanist)

Sound Transit executive commitee grapples with West Seattle Link and its costs

Open threads, the Friday edition, commentary that tells the agencies and governments where to go.

This is an open thread. (The tagline in the middle paragraph is a spoof on the As It Happens intro.)

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West Seattle Link Costs Keep Climbing

A rendering of the West Seattle Link Extension’s planned cable-stayed bridge over the Duwamish. (Sound Transit)

Last week, Sound Transit released the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) for the West Seattle Link Extension (WSLE) ahead of its scheduled publication date of September 20. Although there’s technically one more comment period allowed for the FEIS, the massive document and its findings present a detailed review of each of the potential alternative paths Link may take from SODO to West Seattle.

Although the FEIS is focused on a vast range of potential tangible and intangible impacts the project may have, left unstated are the potential impacts of the project costs significantly exceeding Sound Transit’s assumptions in their 2021 Realignment.

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Midweek Roundup – Open Thread 66

Fremont Bridge Open With U.S.S. Tatnuck Passing Under”, dated August 27, 1936. Item 73874, courtesy of the Seattle Municipal Archives.

Transit Updates:

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First Week, Part 2

The big restructure continues in its fourth day. We still want to hear how Link ridership is doing in the morning and afternoon peaks, how much crowding there is. How are the dozens of restructured bus routes in Snohomish and King Counties doing? How is Lynnwood City Center station holding up re crowding? Is Northgate station emptier? And any updates on RapidRide G.

Don’t miss the highway 520 article just before this one.

This is an open thread.

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Montlake’s direct-access ramps are open

WSDOT opened the SR 520 direct-access ramps to Montlake on Monday, allowing buses between UW and the Eastside to jump the queue at the Montlake Blvd exit.

I dropped by to watch them work in the afternoon and, though traffic was relatively light on a Monday, buses and HOV 3+ vehicles were staying on the HOV all the way to Montlake Blvd.

The bus stops on the lid itself are currently not in use, but Metro says they’ll start using them “at a later date.” There’s still quite a bit of fencing on the lid so it may be some time before it’s fully open.

Before lid construction began, the popular Montlake flyer stop allowed riders to catch an Eastside bus directly from 520 by walking down a flight of stairs. The ADA-inaccessible stop was closed in 2019 for lid construction. Now that connection is restored and improved.

Transit access in Montlake has come a long way from some of the early renders we were seeing in 2009. Prior to Monday, buses were often spending a good 10-15 minutes idling on the exit ramp. It often took longer to exit the ramp than the entire ride from Bellevue to Montlake. The reliability improvements should save service hours and improve ridership.

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