So says that Tacoma News Tribune’s editorial board.
The argument: The proposal to extend rail from Sea-Tac Airport to Tacoma unnecessarily inflated the price tag of the transportation package. Why? Because the wannebe train commuters in this southern corridor are much less numerous than they are around Seattle.
There’s no quarreling with that latter assertion. Ridership would be lower on the south end of the Sound because the population is smaller. The potential demand right now may be too low to justify the expense of light rail.
Right now. But that’s going to change. The South Sound population will expand rapidly in the next 20 years and for decades beyond. Projecting the future using a snapshot of existing trendlines is always a risky business.
Sound Transit has just sprung a surprise on the region: Over the course of 2007, ridership on all its trains and buses jumped 12.3 percent – well beyond the agency’s own projections. The numbers get especially interesting upon closer examination.
As they say, read the whole thing.
The awesome thing is… I think EVERY light rail system except Buffalo’s has far exceeded expectations.
PDX’s Red line had a little trouble (it went to the airport) because it opened on September 10th, 2001. Not exactly the best date to open when September 11th happened the next day, and thus ridership to the airport kind of fell to nothing.
The only reason Buffalo’s light rail didn’t exceed/meet ridership is because the city – instead of climbing to 2 million people, instead had started and continued to decline along with its industrial worker base. Jobs went and so did the people. The city I “think” has maybe 500-600k people, with maybe a 100-200k within walking distance or riding distance of the light rail.
Contrary to most other light rail lines with 300-800k within walking or park & ride distance.
…I’m looking forward to seeing the numbers Seattle will get when the line opens. I’m flying into SEATAC and riding the light rail downtown, will ride the SLUT (again), and then ride the LRT back to King Street to ride back on the train to PDX…
…just to make one huge awesome transit circle! :)
Plus, pending the way things go, I might just move to Seattle for a bit if the light rail really does work out and end up in some interesting places.