Lance Dickie, who I’m not very familiar with, has written a pretty convincing op-ed piece arguing for Sound Transit to wait until 2010 to go to the ballot. Here’s a choice quote:
Sound Transit first got traction in 1996, another presidential-election year. Turnout matters. After voters slapped down a package of roads and transit this past fall, there is a strong pull to try again, sans roads with a transit-friendly cohort.
The other view — one I tend to share — counsels a pause until 2010. By then, mobs with pitchforks and torches will be demanding more transit. Gas prices will resemble those in Europe, without Europe’s plentiful alternatives to a car. Taking the bus or riding Sounder commuter rail will move from being mocked as a personal virtue to unvarnished economic necessity.Most important, the 16-mile line from downtown Seattle to Sea-Tac International Airport is scheduled to open in 2009. After years of talking about how great it is going to be, light rail finally will be a visible, tangible and popular reality.
Emphasis added. I agree that by 2010 the desire for transit will be more urgent, but isn’t that almost an argument to start early? We don’t want to fall another two years behind. As gas prices rise, construction prices will as well, so the sooner the better from the cost standpoint. I also think that we’re already seeing the realization from a lot of people that transit really is an alternative.
The next big suburban land rush will be aboard light rail. The cliché about driving till you qualify for a home loan will be updated. Homes in Arlington will sell to young families whose daily car commute is to a park-and-ride lot and transfer to the light-rail station in Everett.
Want a sure bet in public transit? The Seattle streetcar extension from South Lake Union to the University District. An absolute no-brainer. The future is at Westlake Avenue and Denny Way. An urban neighborhood is blossoming. The employment base is already an extension of the University of Washington, so a line north via Eastlake makes perfect sense. As Portland discovered, investment flourishes along streetcar rails planted in the ground.
I have been hearing homes out in the far-off exurbs are those that are falling in prices fastest, while those close to jobs centers are retaining value for the most part. This is, again, an argument in my mind to go forward now. We don’t have a lot of time to spare, and we’ll lose competitiveness as a region if we let transportation costs get out of control before we approve an expansion. Gas prices have risen tremendously in the last few year. Do we really want to wait for $6 a gallon gas to start building a transit expansion?
Really, I was surprised to read such a pro-transit article in the Times, which usually ranges from lukewarm support to outright hostility to transit. I think the argument is pretty well-reasoned that 2010 will be a sure thing, but I think 2008 will be as well, and I don’t see any advantage to waiting if we think it’ll pass this year.
Democratic turnout will be much higher this year. Also, these projects won’t happen any faster if we wait two years.
Woh, ditto on the shock. Wonder what the sound-off, or whatever their forum is called, sounded like. Usually a bunch of Mr. Podunks talking about freedom and complaining about the government’s conspiracy to take away all our money through taxation.
Good question. Wonder if we can wait. Planning, designing, and building transportation networks takes forever.
One of the greatest things about the emergence of Crosscut is that it’s made the Seattle Times sound like a beacon of sanity by comparison.
As much as I want to see it on the ballot in ’08, I don’t have a good response to the argument that goes, “why don’t we see how it works, before we buy more of it.”
My best response is, “well, it works in every other major city on planet Earth, so why not here?”
But that said, I do sort of understand people’s skepticism. Seeing is believing. It’s easy to blame the voters for this, but really, Sound Transit overpromised and underdelivered. If the line had opened in 2006 as originally promised, we wouldn’t even have this discussion.
(just to be clear — I’m not surprised or upset the project is behind schedule, it’s the nature of major infrastructure projects. I’m just saying that the delay is a major component of the 2008 vs 2010 debate, right or wrong.)
Although I agree that demand may be higher in 2010, based on construction costs we should go ahead now.
I am a bit confused with the “wait and see if it works” idea. Is there anywhere we can cite that has a similar expanding economy where it did not work?
Well if you believe the previous blog post it’s ‘safer’ to wait longer…
I saw stop delaying and give us a way to avoid sitting in traffic ASAP
As I posted on my blog yesterday, Salt Lake City is building 70 miles in 7 years, Denver 119 miles in under a decade, Charlotte 5 lines, Houston 5 lines, Portland 2 more lines. Haven’t you all waited since the 70’s? You know in 2010 they’re just going to come back and say wait till 2012. You’re going to have a progressive turnout, you’re going to have high gas prices for the next half year, you’re going to have more reports of warming and other things of that nature. Now is the right time.
What [pt] said. Let’s pass this thing now, so that we can move on to better projects in 2010. (in-city light rail system, anyone?)
Saying it works somewhere else doesn’t work for someone who doesn’t live somewhere else. They’re unable to take it on faith.
And that, I think, is the fundamental problem… many people lack faith – they’re unable to believe in something they cannot see.
Once done, they will see the light (rail) racing alongside the 5 to the airport and right then and there on the road to Seattle they’ll become believers.
Worse yet, they’ll be spitting mad that the Tacoma-SeaTac piece isn’t yet completed. And they’ll have only themselves to blame.
We need a vote in 2008, and another vote 2-4 years after that, and another vote 2-4 years after that. Add 20-30 miles with each stage, and build each stage over 12 years, and that gets you at least 60-90 miles of light rail over the next 20 years.
Justin, my post had nothing to do with waiting longer. It was pointing out that once the ball is rolling, don’t try to push it.
Well, any ballot proposal for 2008 has to be written to fit the requirements of the Bushoid federal transportation guidelines.
Hopefully, among the first acts of a Democratic administration and majority in Congress will be to clean house and reorder our national priorities.
What is really needed is a national effort analogous to the building of the freeways. In the absence of that effort, plan on living close to where you work and riding a bicycle.
Which is probably a good idea anyway.
Coming from the Times, this sounds a bit like asking your dentist to wait to pull that bad tooth. “Can’t we just wait? C’mon…. Pleeeeeeze?”
Turnout is the key, and it will never be higher in the next few presidential election cycles than it will be this year.
Sound Transit knows this.
It’ll be on this year’s ballot. 100% certain.
Dickie provided other rationales for waiting until 2010 aside from seeing Link LRT in action after 2009.
1. It will allow the political discussion over tolling to proceed. Systemwide dynamic toling would be good for traffic flow, transit flow, global warming, and land use. It ST acknowledged that it was coming, it may change their project list.
2. Tolling may be more important than ST2. If we ask for a large sales tax increase for ST2, will they be willing to ask for systemwide tolling soon after. They are concerned about Eyman. The elected officials are more cautious than the electorate.
3. Waiting till 2010 would allow ST and the Legislature to come up with a better revenue source than the sales tax.
4. The POS, ST, and PSRC are all studying the POS Woodinville subdivision Eastside rail line this summer. It may be a great place to invest ST2 East King County funds. But if they settle on the package before the studies are complete, they spend all those funds on East Link LRT.
5. It would also allow beter investments to be considered for the Snohomish, Pierce, and South King subareas to be developed. Why not have all-day two-way South Sounder? We need to get the UPRR, BNSFRR, and the Ports together to help ST.
I agree with some of the folks above that we need to move on this now. The region is way behind in funding and developing mass-transit systems for the people in Puget Sound.
As gas prices continue to soar and roadway congestion gets worse, people will force themselves to use the alternatives or lobby their government to expand current systems.