The same outfit that did the last Prop 1 poll, showing the YES campaign leading 50-43 +/- 7%, has released a second poll with a radically different conclusion: down 41-49, with a 7.7% margin of error.
The slide presentation doesn’t have that margin of error figure, but I got it from Loren Collingwood of The Washington Poll.
I’m no expert on polling statistics, but in the first poll 211 of 600 statewide subjects were in the Sound Transit district and therefore counted in the Prop. 1 figures. The second poll had only 387 voters statewide, so it figures that there were around 136 people that made up the Prop. 1 sample. That’s a truly tiny sample, and I’m surprised the margin of error is only 7.7%.
Furthermore, it’s clear from the poll’s other results that there are about 5% more conservative-leaning voters in the new poll:
- Obama 54-34 to Obama 51-39
- Gregoire 51-45 to Gregoire 50-48
- I-1000: YES 56-38 to YES 53-43
- I-1029: YES 65-20 to YES 60-26
- I-985: YES 45-43 to NO 55-40
- Prop. 1: YES 50-43 to NO 49-41
President, I-1000, I-1029, and Prop. 1 seem to be consistent with just such a shift away from what I’d characterize as the “progressive” side, without a whole lot happening in each race. I-985 has been getting a ton of bad press, and the governor’s race has been both counter-cyclical and heavily advertised. That doesn’t mean the first set of numbers is right and the second set is wrong, but it does probably mean that these numbers aren’t weighted for party ID.
Although it’s not yet time to start looking for a job in Portland, there’s also clearly no reason to be complacent about this thing passing. There are plenty of opportunities for volunteering in the next couple of days. With Obama a shoo-in and the gubernatorial campaign uninspiring, it’s important to make sure that you and your young, transit-inclined friends get to the polls on Tuesday or drop your ballot in the mail. Don’t let long lines deter you!