The same outfit that did the last Prop 1 poll, showing the YES campaign leading 50-43 +/- 7%, has released a second poll with a radically different conclusion: down 41-49, with a 7.7% margin of error.
The slide presentation doesn’t have that margin of error figure, but I got it from Loren Collingwood of The Washington Poll.
I’m no expert on polling statistics, but in the first poll 211 of 600 statewide subjects were in the Sound Transit district and therefore counted in the Prop. 1 figures. The second poll had only 387 voters statewide, so it figures that there were around 136 people that made up the Prop. 1 sample. That’s a truly tiny sample, and I’m surprised the margin of error is only 7.7%.
Furthermore, it’s clear from the poll’s other results that there are about 5% more conservative-leaning voters in the new poll:
- Obama 54-34 to Obama 51-39
- Gregoire 51-45 to Gregoire 50-48
- I-1000: YES 56-38 to YES 53-43
- I-1029: YES 65-20 to YES 60-26
- I-985: YES 45-43 to NO 55-40
- Prop. 1: YES 50-43 to NO 49-41
President, I-1000, I-1029, and Prop. 1 seem to be consistent with just such a shift away from what I’d characterize as the “progressive” side, without a whole lot happening in each race. I-985 has been getting a ton of bad press, and the governor’s race has been both counter-cyclical and heavily advertised. That doesn’t mean the first set of numbers is right and the second set is wrong, but it does probably mean that these numbers aren’t weighted for party ID.
Although it’s not yet time to start looking for a job in Portland, there’s also clearly no reason to be complacent about this thing passing. There are plenty of opportunities for volunteering in the next couple of days. With Obama a shoo-in and the gubernatorial campaign uninspiring, it’s important to make sure that you and your young, transit-inclined friends get to the polls on Tuesday or drop your ballot in the mail. Don’t let long lines deter you!
I haven’t seen any signs or people on the street around downtown Seattle. (The Obama people have had quite a presence there recently.) Come to think of it, I didn’t get anything in the mail, either. Maybe they’re not focusing on people who live in Seattle itself.
I don’t know whom you call ‘progressive’ but I probably deserve anybody’s definition of the label and I’m completely against all those initiatives (except prop 1). I mean, I’m against initiatives period, but this set are a great example of why they’re so fucktarded. all those initiatives have severe side effects that voters probably never take into account.
1000: What the law permits, the law demands. You already have the right to get morphined up for your last week or two, this really only puts pressure on old people who feel bad about being a burden to off themselves.
1029: Expensive and unnecessary as we slide into a downturn… if this were a good idea, it would already be law because we have a state government whose job it is to monitor this sort of thing.
985 I obviously don’t need to discuss here.
Anyway I’m pretty happy with this result as it looks like Gregoire is winning. It’s too bad that Prop 1 is so close but remember, it’s only in a restricted portion of the state so the polling sample is probably really low. Also I guess maybe it’s the economy’s fault.
John,
I respect, and largely sympathize with, your general skepticism of initiatives. I don’t mean to pigeonhole or excommunicate anyone.
However, my limited attention to I-1000 has shown liberal organizations (The Stranger, 37th District Democrats) in favor and socially conservative ones (the Catholic Church) opposed. I-1029 is sponsored by SEIU, which in my opinion is all you have to know.
I stand by my initial characterization of each initiative, while readily conceding that there are many exceptions.
I have to disagree on 1000. Oregon has had it for a decade, and we aren’t hearing about any of the scary stories the no campaign is peddling here.
I read more about 1029, and no longer support it.
I find a poll that only samples 136 people very hard to swallow indeed.
Speaking of signs, it gives me great pleasure that I have not seen one single anti-prop 1 sign this year. In North Seattle and Bellevue the pro-signs are certainly all over the place.
I dont think these transportation measures nationwide are being marketed right because it also doesnt look good for the measure in LA or the CA HSR either. People just think they are expensive measures and that now is not the time for them. I dont hear propenents driving home the point that these transportation projects are exactly what are needed for right now for the jobs and the investment in the economy.
KIRO is going to put the nail in Prop 1’s coffin tomorrow night, an expose on supposed abuses of taxpayer money by Sound Transit.
But the Stranger told us this one would pass, so I’m happy and sure we’ll win by 10%.
I don’t know if you’re joking or not, but a local news broadcast the night before very big elections for governor and president isn’t going to change the direction of things by much. Especially since so many of us vote by mail already.
The media wonks I know are portraying KIRO as being smug about it, even though, yes, it will do practically nothing to change the vote.
The night before an election is the best time to position yourself so that if they win, you take them down a peg and if they lose, you spit in their faces.
And KIRO just loves doing that to transit.
What’s sad is how much KIRO hates transit when they could be reporting on the Port…
I mean, come on. Abuses of what?
We’ve been doing our part as a family. See:
http://threetreejournal.blogspot.com/2008/10/puget-sound-grassroots-support-for-mass.html
On the other hand (unfortunately), we are the only Yes on Prop 1 yard sign in a neighborhood otherwise strongly to Obama/Biden and Gregoire. Hopefully the presence or lack of yard signage is indicative of nothing.
David
Polls typically do poor in reporting students, too. Let’s hope.
Polls are generally, the worse measurements ever created. The word “shit” comes to mind.
For what it’s worth, I nearly certain the sample size was 162 to have 7.7 MOE. You can use this calculator: http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html (A population size anywhere from 160k on up gives the same MOE with 162 voters.)
I wouldn’t trust a poll with +/-7.7% MOE. Prop. 1 may not pass, but this poll will not have been a predictor since the statistical noise is too great.
The poll is telling us that with 95% confidence:
The YES vote is between 33.3% and 48.7%
The NO vote is between 42.3% and 56.7%
The UNDECIDED vote is between 3.3% and 17.7%
Now, we’d like to see YES ahead. But, look, if you’re sampling 162 people there’s definitely a chance that you’re going to under-sample Seattle, under-sample King County as a whole, and under-sample Pierce County. These facts aren’t necessarily over-sights just the effects of how the poll is conducted.