News Roundup

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Obama’s Stimulus Plan May Need a Roads Diet

A lot of people have been saying that there is too much emphasis on “roads and bridges” in Obama’s infrastructure stimulus talk. I basically agree, though  we haven’t seen the actual plan yet, so the talk may be premature. Still, we already know that mass transit spending is one of the best ways to provide economic stimulus. Now, I want to show you that our roads don’t need that much more investment, according to two major transportation infrastructure studies of the last few years. Both studies have urged for more transit investment.
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Misquoted

About a week ago, Brad at Seattlest posted accusations of improper sales tax collections aimed at Sound Transit and the state DOR.  Because we make a good-faith effort to bring information potentially embarassing to ST out into the open to be examined, we linked to it and said that if he had his facts straight it was a good point, and went on to put a loose upper bound on the damage if he was correct.

But now Brad has wildly mischaracterized that post as “agreeing” with him, and somehow this paragraph of mine:

That comes out to about $62 million, but that assumes that those relatively rural areas have the same median income as the area as a whole; assumes residents do no shopping in the district proper; and ignores inflation over the past decade.  I think it’s safe to say that the total impact is something substantially less than that figure, so loose talk about “hundreds of millions” is probably not correct.

turned into this on Brad’s new post:

STB has calculated that people living in the non-RTA areas could have been incorrectly overcharged by over $60 million in sales tax for their personal purchases since the creation of the district in the mid-’90s.

No nuance, no mention of the fact that it’s probably a gross overestimate, etc.  That’s an incredibly misleading portrayal of my conclusions.

I’m not sure what kind of agenda Brad’s pushing, but if I hadn’t made it clear enough:

I hereby disassociate from all the conclusions he makes in both his posts.  To the extent that I speak for STB, I do so on its behalf as well. I have no idea if Brad’s initial accusations are correct or not.

UPDATE: Seattlest has registered my objections on the main post.  I thank them for their prompt action.  As for our “disinterest” in further exploration of the issue, if more facts come to light we’ll continue to post on the subject.

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South Bellevue

Andrew’s already pointed to all the great new information on East Link, but I’d just like to come out against the “B7” (I-405) alignment in South Bellevue.  There’s going to be a lot of fear of traffic, noise, and disruption among residents living near the existing S. Bellevue Park and Ride.  The path of least resistance, certainly, will be to shove the line out to the highway.  That’s a bad idea for several reasons:

  • Ridership projections and cost per rider are worse by a factor of 5.
  • The bus connections for I-90 routes will be much better along Bellevue Way.  When there’s an accident on I-90, it’ll be great to have an efficient way to connect to the train from Eastgate or Issaquah.  Depending on how the travel times work out, it may very well be that it makes more sense to terminate the 554 at South Bellevue.  In any case, a stop near Wilburton won’t be nearly as efficient, not least because of how hard it is to get on I-405 from I-90.
  • The road disruption won’t be all that bad.  MLK, which was a massive job, finished up in less than two years in front of my development.  Traffic flowed pretty well throughout that time.
  • In the long run, being close to the light rail will increase property values in that neighborhood.
  • It’s true that it might attract more traffic, but any amenity that makes a neighborhood a better place increases traffic.  At least light rail provides an alternative to sitting in that traffic.
  • Link is really, really quiet.

Not only do I think the residents are operating from a misperception of their self-interest, but when you consider the broader region, the B7 alternative is by far the worst.

I think the public meetings are going to have a lot of this NIMBY sentiment, so I hope Sound Transit comes armed with data about property values, a sound recording of an operating LINK train, and some other examples of why residents’ worst fears are unfounded.   If you live or work nearby, they also probably won’t mind your support.

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Raise the Gas Tax Now

Since the breathless predictions I linked to this summer apparently aren’t going to happen, I was going to write a piece on how it’s a great time to raise the gas tax.  However, Michael Kinsley has covered all the main political points in Time, while  Mike Lillis in The Washington Independent goes a little deeper into the economics, for those of you so inclined.

All I can add is that this is equally good advice at the state level.  Kinsley’s right that there’s no reason, in principle, to object to the gas tax unless your policy goal is to maximize gasoline consumption.  In any other case, the state could take the money to cut other taxes or subsidize whoever it is you think is being hurt by this proposal.

UPDATE: Of course, here in this state our wonderful state constitution restricts our ability to offset the impact of tax increases by forcing it to all be spent on roads.   There’s another thing Olympia could fix if they weren’t obsessed with asphault.

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Snow on Santa’s Lights Tour

After Santa's Lights Tour

Hi, my name is Oran. You have probably seen my work featured on STB numerous times. I would like to thank Andrew for giving me the opportunity to do “media blogging” for STB. Basically, I will post a photo or design with a caption. Let us know how you like it. Here’s the caption for the photo above:

“This is Seattle Transit System coach 724, a GM ‘New Look’ bus from 1968, at the end of MEHVA‘s annual Santa’s Lights Tour of stunning holiday light displays around Seattle. Snow began falling before we took off and Santa (yes Santa!) told us this was the first time it snowed on the tour in 20 years. It was an enjoyable ride and I highly recommend it but I cannot guarantee snow on that night next year. “

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East Link Thoughts

Sound Transit has released its draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) for East Link, here’s an executive summary (9.6 MB pdf). The study compares the impacts, costs and benefits of different routings, as well as the impacts, costs and benefits of elevated, at-grade and underground rights of way. There’s also an interactive map on the Sound Transit site, where you can see the different alignments. Worth checking out, I promise.

From the press release:

The Sound Transit Board is expected to identify a preferred alternative next spring and staff would then complete the final environmental impact statement to be published in 2010. A final decision on the project would be made in 2010 after the Final EIS is published.

Public comment on the current alternatives will play an important factor in the Board’s identification of a preferred alternative…

The public comment period runs from Dec. 12 – Feb. 25, 2009.

My thoughts, as well as times and locations of public meetings below the fold.

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Weekend Tax Rumors

We’re late on this, but Seattlest contributor Brad took the recent Department of Licensing MVET goof to its logical conclusion and pointed out that there’s probably been a hiccup in sales tax collection as well, one that potentially dwarfs the $3 million involved in the MVET program.  Assuming his facts are right, it’s a good point, but one that probably doesn’t have a lot of practical implications.

The only thing I have to add is that there are 95,000 vehicle owners affected by the MVET, which is probably roughly the number of adults in the affected areas.  A 0.4% sales tax figures to cost the median adult about $55 a year and has been collected for 12 years.  That comes out to about $62 million, but that assumes that those relatively rural areas have the same median income as the area as a whole; assumes residents do no shopping in the district proper; and ignores inflation over the past decade.  I think it’s safe to say that the total impact is something substantially less than that figure, so loose talk about “hundreds of millions” is probably not correct.

Given these uncertainties, and other practical difficulties Brad himself points out, I don’t see a practical remedy as simple as that for MVET.  I think sloppy state agencies deserve scolding, as well as legislators who made the district boundary as complicated as possible.  But a figure in the low tens of millions of dollars is serious money, enough to do a freeway ramp or other practical project.  I’d rather use that money to build a project they participated in the vote for than attempt to reconstruct 12 years of purchase records.

But, of course, I would say that.

Photo, taken somewhere East of Sammamish, by Panoramio contributor franklin18136.

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