David Brewster at Crosscut discusses the possibility of Prop 1 failing and that means for Sound Transit, Light Rail and the future of transportation in our region. His analysis is pretty much spot-on. Focusing on Sound Transit and Light Rail, I see there being four options if Prop 1 fails to pass, depending on the degree of the failure and whether road warriors like Rossi take over Olympia:
- Prop. 1 fails big, and Sound Transit is dismantled by the road warriors in the legistlature and the Governor’s Mansion. Metro gets some of Sound Transit’s taxing authority and runs our only rail line, which doesn’t get expanded, not even to Husky Stadium. Sound Transit’s remaining taxing authority goes to a “roads agency”.
- Same as option 1, except Sound Transit’s remaining taxing authority goes to Metro for more buses, expecially BRT.
- Prop. 1 fails by a smaller margin, Sound Transit is rolled into a roads-and-transit agency by either a Norm Rice-John Stanton Initiative, or by the road warriors. This roads and transit agency, probably doesn’t expand rail past Husky Stadium. The rest of the money goes to roads and BRT.
- Same as option 3, except Nickels gets a Seattle only-measure to expand rail to Northgate.
None of these are pretty. Even the last option is very dark compared to what we have on offer this election, would take a massive political will to get accomplished and doesn’t leave much room for the expansion of light rail in any future scenarios. I don’t really see any other way we’ll get more rail in our region if Prop. 1 fails.
The other smart point Brewster makes is that I-985 is going to make congestion much worse for buses, and make BRT a much worse option. But if Sound Transit is destroyed, as it is in all scenarios above, we’ll never have another. If we want transit that works at all, especially in light of I-985’s potential destructive elements, we really need to get light rail.
If Prop 1 passes, here are the options:
- Prop. 1 passes by a very narrow margin. A Rice-Stanton intiative or road warriors in Olympia create a long fight over governance reform and the projects from Prop 1.
- Prop. 1 passes by a large margin, Sound Transit lives on into the future bringing us rail for all time.
Even option 1 above puts the road-warriors in the worse position, and makes it very hard for them to dismantle rail.
If we want rail to be part of the transportation conversation in Puget Sound, we have to pass Mass Transit Now. There are plenty of volunteer opportunities in the campaign if you want to get involved, email: Rebecca@masstransitnow.org.
The last polls I have seen on this topic were a few months ago, and showed this proposition passing by a hefty margin. Have there been any more recent polls conducted on Proposition 1? If so, what are they showing?
I saw a poll on king five, and it showed a narrower margin, but prop 1 was still up by more than 15 points, with 10% undecided.
Yes, MTN HAS to pass this time, but if in the sad event that it doesn’t, I see another scenario — ST begins Link service next year and people love it so much they rise up against the most nefarious options.
A Prop 1 failure this year would be a big blow to Sound Transit’s confidence. They put the proposition on the ballot this year after the 2007 Prop 1 loss really believing that people really wanted more transit but not more roads.
Mass Transit Now is the first political campaign I’ve been involved in and I’m proud to be a volunteer. Let’s prove them wrong and show them we can win this without a multi-million dollar budget.
I like this fantasy world where this sort of thing punishes Seattle, even though revenue and business are coming out of suburban orbit to land in Seattle proper.
I’ve volunteered doing phone banking twice now… it isn’t fun, but for the most part the response is positive. Some undecideds that don’t want to listen to you and are going to read up before voting, some undecideds that you can convince, a bunch of people who say “yes, absolutely!” and a few people who say “no” (or make it clear they are voting no with some comment like “my voting choice is confidential information.”) I got one lady tonight that said the plan was “just dumb.” Unfortunately since this is over the phone and I am nothing more than an unpaid telemarketer I can’t have a rational discussion with these types. You just have to say “thank you for your time” and move on.
Mostly I just leave the same canned message on answering machines over and over (90% of people don’t answer, in fact I’m usually surprised when someone actually picks up the phone.)
Like I said, it isn’t fun, but I have convinced at least three people to go from undecided to “yes” and I consider that a good use of my time. Mass Transit Now can use all the volunteers they can get, please consider giving a few hours to phone people and make that personal plea. They even feed you!
What makes you so sure that the public would support spending ST’s money on roads if Prop 1 fails? Surely there are “road warriors” in the legislature that want to do this, but I don’t think the public does. If the public votes this down, it may not be because they would rather spend the money on roads, but because they would rather not spend the money at all, repeal ST’s taxing authority all together and have lower taxes and no new transportation investment, roads, buses or rails.
This may actually be a best case scenario. As long as the money stays in the people’s pockets, they can always spend it later.
BTW, of the four scenarios you outline, I believe #4 is by far the most likely. Even the Seattle Times has endorsed the idea of finishing light rail to Northgate.
Governance reform should happen anyway, and probably will happen, regardless of whether this initiative passes. Win or lose, I believe transit advocates would be better served by working to shape governance reform in a positive direction rather than trying to oppose it. It is possible, especially if Prop. 1 does pass, that we may end up with a better, more functional organization than we have now.
Please do continue to push for the passage of this package, but I’m not convinced that the situation would be “that bad” if Prop 1 were to fail. If the people don’t want this rail line, then they don’t want this rail line, and it is their money after all.
Unfortunately, a year of money staying in someone’s pockets rather than a .5% sales tax increase does not mean next year you get a 1% sales tax increase. It means it’s money that never gets invested.
And Nickels doesn’t have the taxing authority to get to Northgate – not without a vote, certainly, and probably not even then, as what he would do won’t be anywhere near as competitive for a New Starts grant.
I don’t think it passes. I remember that scene where Bridget Fonda was like “people love their cars”. Oh wait, sorry, that was a movie.
I mostly agree with Tony on this (though I’m not sure “reform” does much). It would be devastating for those of us that like rail, and it would severely limit our city’s future growth, but I’m not sure I believe the nightmare scenarios.
At least if it doesn’t pass the value of my house will go up, as the commute to the city gets longer and longer…
You might have it backwards there (assuming you live in the city).
If it doesn’t pass, the economic viability of our region relative to other regions decreases as congestion worsens and our per capita output doesn’t compare as favorably. While your house might increase in value relative to suburban houses, it won’t increase in value relative to other cities – and that means it won’t increase in value relative to commodities – say, building materials you might want to use an equity loan to purchase.
If it does pass, as we become more competitive, the value of regional land overall increases, *and* the value of your home increases even more because of proximity to rail. The only suburban houses that will increase in value due to rail are those fairly close to the stations.
The economic viability will not decrease as much as you are suggesting, not if trends continue as they are. Seattle has enough free space between SLU and SoDo to just about double commercial space (~28mil sq. ft. existing, ~25mil sq. ft. available at minimum zoning) in downtown alone, and with 250k employees already, it’s safe to say that there is still viability there, especially with a direct Link to the airport and a vibrant port system. There’s a reason most business meetings happen in Downtown Seattle.
If economic powers-that-be insist on trying to pinch Seattle and convince people that it they’re sticking it to the City by voting against things like this, they are certainly mistaken, especially given the solid bloc between Everett and Tacoma.
At any rate, when Prop 1 passes (and even if it doesn’t), the next step is to address the I-5 corridor. It’s absolutely important and I imagine a frequent service heavy rail corridor should be looked into as a partnership between Tacoma and at least Seattle, but preferably as far north as Everett.
It’s the scenarios like the ones described in this post that make the whispering and semi-joking of people like the Mayor and City Councilmembers of “secession” sound more appealing.
Think of the money that flows out of Seattle into the suburbs for empty buses (40/40/20). Or the money that goes into WSDOT to fund rural highways in the farther-flung reaches of the state. What if those resources stayed “in-house”? Light rail could be funded to Northgate alone, I bet. Could we fund it to Ballard and West Seattle as well?
If the suburbs and state (via voting down ST2, or passing I-985) are going to keep holding back this city’s desires to build real transportation solutions, then perhaps regionalism as we know it needs to be dissected and rethought.
I dunno, I may have to consider moving to Portland (There is an office I can transfer to) and have the option of actual transportation choices if this doesn’t pass. I’ve tossed the idea of moving before but I would rather be car-free or use ZipCar (very easily done with MAX)
More or less, Prop 1 passing will determine if I stay in the Seattle region. I don’t want to live in a city where all I do is waste my time in congestion.
I wouldn’t leave Seattle just because Prop 1 fails but if I did leave, I’d love to live in Vancouver, B.C.
If Prop 1 passes then it’ll be easier to find a job in Seattle while ST 2 gets built out (notice how much money civil engineering consulting firms are donating to MTN!?).
I am from Portland so I am watching all this from a distance. These scenerios seem pretty dire, is there really that huge of a backlash against rail and transit in the Seattle region? Is Rossi very outspoken against rail and transit?
Why does a region like Seattle have such a hard time getting a decent transit system built, from the 1970 rapid transit proposal, to sound transit 1996, to the 5 elections for the monorail to the present day. my god, los angeles of all places built an extensive transit system in the last 20 years.
Seattle just needs to build than go to voters each and every time to do something. That is the biggest issue.