Community Transit plans phased reopening in July and September

A bus at Mountlake Terrace TC

With Snohomish County well into Phase 2 of its pandemic recovery, Community Transit is set to begin restoring its bus service over the next few months. On July 6, CT will bring service levels back to 75% of pre-pandemic trips to accommodate an increased need on heavily-used routes. A 85% restoration will take place in September, followed by a potential full restoration by spring 2021.

Community Transit will also begin collecting fares on all routes on July 1. Drivers will wear face coverings and will be able to wear face shields when passengers are boarding from the front door. The agency is encouraging riders to wear face coverings, but not making them required.

Transit ridership in Snohomish County began to increase in May and is expected to return to high levels as more employers reopen. Retailers have been permitted to reopen for in-store shopping and most national chains have followed suit for their locations in the county.

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Closed section on Link light rail train due to COVID-19 pandemic

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Metro recovery starts Monday

King County Metro

Metro announced yesterday that it is largely restoring pre-pandemic service levels on Monday:

The result is Metro will operate more than 11,000 weekday bus trips, or 85% of its pre-COVID service level. Saturday service will be 8,200 trips (99%) and Sunday service will be 7,000 trips (99%). Starting Monday, Metro’s will increase the number of transit operators providing service from 64% to about 80% of pre-COVID levels.

Ridership is still down about 70%, but King County is likely to enter Phase 2 soon and have activity pick up. Quite a few non-core routes will remain shut down, but many peak expresses will return.

The South Lake Union Streetcar and Trailhead Direct will not operate. Metro promises the Reduced Schedule and Canceled Trips pages will have specific weekday schedule information on Saturday.

As September’s service change will cut about 15% off last January’s route network, we may be at this service level for quite some time, and worse off on weekends.

Sound Transit Board argues realignment criteria

The Sound Transit Executive Committee failed on Thursday to reach agreement on realignment criteria for ST3 projects. Board members sought a set of agreed criteria for a better-tuned realignment, but in the end voted only to send a framework of possible criteria to the full Board without recommendation.

A “blunt instrument” delay of five years for all projects not currently in construction would be affordable. To maintain flexibility, early design work would generally proceed on the original ST3 timeline, but construction would take place much later to conserve revenues. But the Board is looking for a realignment process that does something smarter than simply sliding all the timelines.

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Mt. Baker laundry site to become affordable housing

Mt. Baker Station with former UW laundry facility in the background (Apple Maps)

Seattle Office of Housing (PDF):

Three parcels totaling 3.79 acres of land and more than 179,000 square feet, opposite the Mount Baker Link light rail station.

Transformative opportunity to develop affordable housing, ground floor early learning, and open space near high capacity transit.

The laundry facility, next to Mt. Baker Station, was one factor in the suboptimal placement of Mt. Baker station itself, as we noted in 2012.  The neighborhood went through a controversial rezoning process in 2014. 

In 2018, the UW made the contentious decision to close the facility and eliminate 100 jobs. Laundry services were awarded to a private contractor.

Last year, the legislature passed a law allowing UW to transfer the property to Seattle for affordable housing.  Also last year, as part of the MHA rezone, the site was rezoned for up to 95 feet. 

More cuts in Metro service in 2021 & 2022

RapidRide C in West Seattle (image: Andy Tucker)

With the September 2020 service change, Metro will restore service to about 85% of pre-COVID levels. However, that’s just a precursor to a series of service reductions Metro is preparing over the next two years, with a cumulative reduction of 20%-30% of service from previous levels rolling out through every service change in 2021 and 2022. Capital spending will be reduced by 30-40%. The Regional Transit Committee is to receive a briefing on Wednesday detailing how Metro is preparing their 2021-2022 budget.

The near-term finances are rough, though somewhat offset by a once-off infusion of $242 million of CARES Act funding, and some dipping into reserves. A little over half of Metro funding is through dedicated sales taxes. Sales taxes for 2020 are now expected to come in 29% short of the forecast from earlier this year. Fares are not currently being collected. Ridership remains 71% below normal levels, so fare revenue will be much lower even after fare collection resumes. The CARES Act funding buys Metro time to restructure operations, but doesn’t address longer term deficits.

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Closed seats on King County Metro bus due to COVID-19 pandemic

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Metro to come back in September with 15% less service

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Due to a dramatic ridership decline as a result of COVID-19, Metro has reduced bus service to match ridership demand. But with revenues cratering, yesterday it announced a permanent 15% service cut compared to pre-pandemic levels for its September service change. This includes a 50% drop in Seattle-funded service, allowing it to continue to the following March service change even though the Transportation Benefit District (TBD) expires in December.

Metro is facing a $200m drop in projected 2020 sales tax collections, and an $80m fall in farebox revenue, largely offset by $243m in CARES act funding. For the period 2020-22, Metro estimates sales tax and fare shortfalls of $465m and $130-150m, respectively.

The restored network will “focus primarily on a network of all-day routes throughout King County, including preserving frequent service on Metro’s busiest routes, while restoring peak service sufficient to meet returning demand to the extent possible given the current financial challenges.” Beyond mid-day service, Metro continues: “While some weekday peak-period commuter routes will be restored, many peak routes will remain suspended in anticipation that long-term commuter ridership demand will take time to recover as many large employers continue having employees telework. Night, evening, and weekend service also will be significantly reduced.”

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Metro’s 2015 restructures, revisited

2 Express Diesel

King County Metro has some challenging times ahead. The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to lead to a recession, one which is forecast to be as bad or worse than the great recession of 2008. Funding from the CARES act can help offset losses in the short term, but Metro will almost certainly have to reduce service at some point.

Given these circumstances, it may be helpful to look back at last time Metro looked at implementing service cuts. Metro’s cuts were going to be implemented in four phases from 2014 to 2015, but only the first phase ended up being necessary. Seattle Transit Blog covered these reductions extensively with an overview, as well as detailed analyses of changes in Seattle/North King County and the Eastside. Though most of these reductions did not get implemented, they include a dramatic restructure of bus service (rather than a simple reduction of service across the board) throughout the county. With a reduction of bus service levels on the horizon again, it’s a good time to look back on some of these restructures and see which ones may come back, and what should be changed this time around.

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