The Bigger Picture on Housing

Stepping back from the fierce debate on cottage lots and minimum size, it’s worth looking at the bizarre pressure cooker that is today’s post-bust Seattle housing market. The unemployment rate is dropping. Interest rates are absurdly low (30-year fixed rates are 3.5% as of today). Any halfway-decent house is getting multiple offers. Buyers are primed and ready.

And yet… there’s nothing for anyone to buy. Inventories are at record lows. The excellent SeattleBubble.com puts it into stark relief:

Monthly King County SFH Inventory by SeattleBubble.com

We went from over 12,000 homes on the market in King County in 2008 to about 5,000 today. One reason is that many homeowners are underwater:

King County has “such a short supply that it invites further price increases,” Crellin said. “The Realtors are right. They need inventory.”

So why aren’t more people listing their homes for sale, given the high demand?

Jacobi, Kelman and Crellin all pointed to owners who still wouldn’t be able to ask what they paid for their homes at or near the height of the market.

“They’ve sort of resigned themselves to staying put for awhile,” Crellin said.

One way to resolve this situation would be for the country to experience sustained 3-4% inflation over the next few years, which would slowly but surely put more homeowners above water and make it more palatable for them to sell. But federal policymakers have resisted this approach, and inflation has remained in the 2% range despite the record-low interest rates. The result is a whole lot of money sitting around looking for something to buy and a whole lot of homeowners who aren’t interested in selling or able to do so. Is it any surprise developers are looking for creative ways to build more houses?

Second Pierce Transit Prop. 1 Open Houses Tonight

Pierce Transit is kicking off the second of nine Proposition 1 Open Houses across Pierce County tonight to inform the public about the proposition and what will happen either if it passes for fails. PT press release below:

Lakewood, WA – Pierce Transit will be hosting eight more informational Open Houses for the public, regarding Proposition 1 at locations around the Pierce Transit service area. Facts and information about Proposition 1 can also be found online http://www.piercetransit.org.
Locations and dates of the eight remaining Pierce Transit Proposition 1 Open Houses (please note the change in location for South Tacoma on October 15):

Lakewood
Tuesday, September 18th from 6:00 PM – 7:30 PM
Pierce Transit (Rainier/St Helens rooms)
3720 96th St SW, Lakewood, WA
Hosted by: PT Commissioner Don Anderson
Served by Routes 48, 300

Gig Harbor
Wednesday, September 19thfrom 6:00 PM – 7:30 PM
Gig Harbor Civic Center (Council Chambers)
3510 Grandview Street, Gig Harbor, WA
Hosted by: PT Commissioner Derek Young
Served by Route 100

Tacoma (first of two meetings)
Thursday, September 20th from 5:00 PM – 6:30 PM
Tacoma Municipal Building (Council Chambers – 1st floor)
747 Market Street, Tacoma, WA
Hosted by: PT Board Chair Marilyn Strickland
Served by routes serving Commerce Street

Continue reading “Second Pierce Transit Prop. 1 Open Houses Tonight”

Carbon Taxes

Internal Revenue Service (wikimedia)

Matt Yglesias makes a nearly bulletproof policy argument for carbon taxes and then wonders why they’re so unpopular with Democrats:

Last but by no means least the government still needs revenue. It needs revenue to fund these solar subsidies, it needs revenue to pay teachers and cops, it needs revenue to fund Medicare and Medicaid, it needs revenue. There’s room for some kind of conservatives-for-solar-subsidies movement, but the vast majority of the people to whom these clean-energy causes appeal are the very same people who think the federal government’s tax revenue should rise. That’s a hard political fight right there. Why not make it a fight for a form of revenue increases that also have huge environmental benefits?

Mr. Yglesias is probably asking that rhetorically, but what the government does with the revenue is in fact the crux of the problem.

A tax on fossil fuel use is a regressive tax that will hit working class people especially hard. Now, it’s possible to construct the program to neutralize the impact on the poorest people, by allocating the funds to welfare programs, or even something as simple as cap and dividend.* But if one is looking to fund general government with carbon taxes, one is arguing to make the tax system more regressive.

Personally, I’d argue that given the scale of the threat, and the fact that nothing is going to deter destructive behavior more than making it expensive, that this is a reasonable price to pay. And the impact on the poor wouldn’t have to be as high with decent transit and land use policy. But it’s not surprising that the Democratic Party hasn’t pushed very hard for something that would shatter its coalition.

* As supported by Washington’s own Sen. Cantwell.

“Singles” at 20

 

Cameron Crowe’s Singles, easily the best romantic comedy ever made about Seattle transportation policy, was released 20 years ago today.  If you’re familiar with the movie, then I probably just made you feel really old.  If you’re not, all you need to know is that the main character, played by Campbell Scott, is obsessed with building a “supertrain,” convinced that if he gives people good coffee and good music, they will get out of their cars, and they will ride.

Thankfully, 20 years later, the debate appears to have resolved itself. We’re finally building the Supertrain* — or something close to it.  Though it’s unlikely we’ll get the line across Elliot Bay to Bainbridge and Bremerton on the next ballot, the rest of the routes are coming along quite nicely, don’t you think?

Above are a couple of screencaps I took when I watched the movie recently. If anyone has better images or even original artwork from the film, I’d love to know about it.

*not to be confused with the 1979 TV show of the same name.

Regional PSRC Funds Up for Grabs

Photo by planet_lb

The Puget Sound Regional Council has opened a public comment period for its Transportation Improvement Program, which will dole out than more than $440 million in federal funds to regional projects, many of which are transit or at least transit-related.  The overview of the Draft 2013-2016 TIP (PDF) has a good breakdown of all the projects by type (i.e., transit, roadway, non-motorized, etc.).  You can also view all the projects on an online map.

While transit accounts for nearly 70% of all projects selected for the 2012 selection process, many are the projects have a strong emphasis on general maintenance and transit operations (e.g., trolley replacement, ferry preservation, etc.)  “New transit alignment” projects, on the other hand, only get 24% of the transit funds– these primarily consist of things like light rail and fixed guideway expansion.

The table below the jump lists the top projects by award amount:

Continue reading “Regional PSRC Funds Up for Grabs”

Seattle Design Festival September 20th-23rd

While not totally within the genre this blog covers the Seattle Design Festival has more than a few events that STB readers would probably enjoy. Below are highlights from the festival:

The Pruitt-Igoe Myth

 

The story of the transformation of the American city in the decades after World War II is told through the lens of the infamous Pruitt-Igoe housing development and the St. Louis residents who called it home. Built in 1956, Pruitt-Igoe was heralded as the model public housing project of the future, “the poor man’s penthouse.” Two decades later, it ended in rubble – its razing an iconic event that the architectural theorist Charles Jencks famously called the death of modernism. The footage and images of its implosion have helped to perpetuate a myth of failure, a failure that has been used to critique Modernist architecture, attack public assistance programs, and stigmatize public housing residents. The Pruitt-Igoe Myth seeks to set the historical record straight by examining the interests involved in Pruitt-Igoe’s creation and re-evaluating the rumors and the stigma.

Continue reading “Seattle Design Festival September 20th-23rd”

Transit Hike: Through the Olympic Mountains

by JAKE VANDERPLAS and MATT FEWINS

This blog has often covered transit-accessible hikes that can be accomplished in a day. But many of the most beautiful areas of Washington are out-of-reach of the day-hiker — even one who relies on a personal vehicle to get them to the trailhead. This summer, two of us set out to see if we could use transit to reach some of these more remote destinations. The result was an eight-day excursion that brought us from downtown Seattle past our State’s capitol, through the heart of Olympic National Park, over international waters to Victoria BC, and home, relying entirely on public transportation and our own feet.

The trip started with a five-leg transit journey from Seattle to Lake Quinault Lodge, on the south-west edge of Olympic National Park. The following is a weekday itinerary: the trip is possible on a weekend, but transfers don’t work out quite as well.

Leg 1: Ballard – Downtown Seattle

18E (King County Metro)

6:20am – 6:47am

$2.50 (Orca accepted)

Leg 2: Seattle – Tacoma

Sounder train (Sound Transit: ST bus 594 is an alternative)

6:50am – 7:48am

$4.75 (Orca accepted)

Leg 3: Tacoma – Olympia

603 (Intercity Transit)

8:12am – 9:12am

$2.50

Leg 4: Olympia – Aberdeen

40 (Grays Harbor Transit)

9:30am – 11:00am

$3.00 (request transfer when paying)

Leg 5: Aberdeen – Lake Quinault Lodge

60 (Grays Harbor Transit)

11:30am – 12:35pm

$1.00 (free with transfer)

Continue reading “Transit Hike: Through the Olympic Mountains”

Update: Oct. 6th Sounder Ceremony

A couple of more details on the Oct. 6th celebration of Lakewood Sounder service beginning the following Monday:

  • The free rides on Sounder will leave Lakewood at noon, 1pm, and 2pm, and Freighthouse Square at 12:30, 1:30, and 2:30 pm.
  • The ribbon cutting will be, tentatively, about 11am.

ST is also giving out 20 tickets to a special preview ride Sept. 24th. To get one, you’ll have to work through this puzzle.