Los Angeles struggles with turning around bus ridership while trying to expand its rail network countywide under Measure M.

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Sound Transit’s recently-released Draft 2019 Service Implementation Plan is a data-dense tome covering the next round of ST Express route restructures, ridership and performance data, Title VI analyses, and more. This year’s edition offers a vision of how ST Express service might look in 2025 (pages 85-110), after five more Link extensions and the opening of Sound Transit’s first two Bus Rapid Transit routes, but laid out opening by opening. Transit network efficiency geeks, salivate thereon. It’s time to play Sim-ST!

Once Northgate Link opens (2021, page 93):

• Some of the Snohomish-County-to-Seattle routes (510, 511, 512, and 513) could be truncated at Northgate Station.
• Route 522 is planned to be truncated at Northgate or Roosevelt Station.
• Route 542 is planned to be truncated at the U-District instead of continuing on to Green Lake Park & Ride.
• Routes 555 and 556 could be restructured between the U-District and Northgate Stations. Since route 555 does not serve the U-District, part of that restructure would presumably be to just have route 556. No specific restructure between the U-District and Northgate is proposed. So, truncation seems to be the default proposal.
• Route 586 is planned to be eliminated. Past SIPs have mentioned a possible route 591 from Tacoma to north downtown, but this SIP merely says service hours will be reinvested in the I-5 South corridor.

Once East Link opens (2023):

• Route 540 is planned to remain the same as today. The SIP does not mention the route 544 proposal that would eliminate route 540 in favor of investing its service hours in a restructured route 255 that would serve UW Station.
• Route 541 is planned to be eliminated, presuming it hasn’t already been in favor of route 544.
• Route 542 is planned to continue as shortened after the Northgate Link restructure, and run all day and all week.
• Route 545 could become a frequent peak-only route between Bear Creak Park & Ride, Redmond Transit Center, and South Lake Union, not serving Redmond Technology Center Station or Capitol Hill.
• Route 550 is planned to be eliminated.
• Routes 555 and 556 could be eliminated, consolidating north-Bellevue-to-UW service to King County Metro route 271 and Bellevue-Issaquah service to route 554.

Once Downtown Redmond Link opens (2024):

The bus routes are not expected to change, but they will continue to service Redmond TC, which will be several blocks from the new Downtown Redmond Station, and are not expected to serve the station.

Once Lynnwood Link opens (2024):

• Route 510 would get a huge bump in service hours, and provide frequent all-day connection between Downtown Everett, South Everett Park & Ride, Ash Way Park & Ride and Lynnwood City Center Station.
• Route 511 would become a peak frequent bi-directional service between Seaway Transit Center, Eastmont P&R, Ash Way P&R, and Lynnwood City Center Station.
• Routes 512 and 513 would be eliminated.

Once Federal Way Link opens (2024):

• Route 574 could be extended to Burien TC and Westwood Village.
• Route 577 would be eliminated.
• Routes 578, 590, 592, and 594 could be truncated at Federal Way P&R Station.
• Route 595 would remain as it is today, running express between Tacoma Community College TC and downtown Seattle.

Once SR 522 / NE 145th BRT opens (2024):

Route 522 would remain as a peak connection between Roosevelt or Northgate Station and SR 522 destinations through UW Bothell.

The segment between UW Bothell and Woodinville P&R might remain in the BRT route depending on a ridership study to be conducted after Northgate Link opens.

Once I-405 BRT opens (2024):

• Route 532 would continue providing peak service between Everett and Bellevue, and add the stop on campus at UW Bothell.
• Routes 535 and 560 are planned to be eliminated.
• Routes 566 and 567 would continue much as they are today.
• Route 574 could be extended to serve Burien TC and Westwood Village.

Frank Chiachiere assisted with this post.

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Sound Transit has released its Draft 2019 Service Implementation Plan, along with a one-page summary that looks a lot more succinct and useful than the traditional executive summaries. The actual proposals for service changes are just for March 2019. Highlights and lowlights include:

Route 513 will cease serving Evergreen Way, and instead serve the new Seaway Transit Center, near Paine Field.

Route 542 will expand service to evenings and weekends, while routes 545 and 555 will no longer serve Montlake, due to Montlake Freeway Station closing.

Route 550 will move to 2nd and 4th Avenues downtown, and take several minutes longer to cross downtown.

Route 555 will cease serving its long tail between downtown Bellevue and Issaquah. Route 556 will continue to serve this tail in the other direction. The hours saved would be invested into improved reliability for route 554.

Reverse-peak-direction service on route 580 will be eliminated, and various other runs will just go between South Hill and Puyallup Station. Saved hours will be invested in other Pierce County ST Express routes. See page 22 of the Draft SIP for the full list of cuts.

Minor changes, listed on page 24, include:

• replacing the northbound freeway station stop at 145th with a stop on 5th Ave NE, for route 512. The freeway station is being closed for Link station construction. Non-specified reliability improvements may be rolled out to mitigate the extra travel time.
• a possible additional stop on route 541 at the southeast corner of the Microsoft campus, to mitigate lack of access to Overlake Transit Center resulting from Link station construction.
• the discontinuation of the midday run of route 596 from Bonney Lake P&R to Sumner Station, due to having just 2-4 riders.

The Draft SIP is coy on whether the travel time on Link Light Rail will decrease after the buses leave the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel for good, or how long it will take to get more peak 3-car trains. The SIP merely states that “reliability” will improve, and offers a transfer to light rail as a way to get across downtown faster (which seems like a dubious plan if average wait time is 3-5 minutes, and getting between the bus stop and train takes multiple minutes, along with the time to exit the destination station, unless they really are planning to reduce cross-downtown travel time, and buses are reduced to a crawl). Siemens light rail vehicles start getting delivered sometime in 2019, and then will need a prep period before any can go into service.

More changes for September 2019 will be proposed in early 2019, with public outreach planned for after Metro makes its decisions on its northeastside restructures.

Public comments on the March 2019 service change proposals are being accepted through November 15.

The SIP also offers a treasure trove of ridership and performance data, as well as scenarios for how ST Express service might look in 2025, which will be covered in a future post.

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In case you haven’t opened your mailbox this week, next Tuesday is election day. Ballot drop boxes close at 8 pm sharp Tuesday. Mailing your ballot is free, but it must be post-marked by Tuesday, so mail it by the day before, take it to a post office Tuesday before they close, find the nearest drop box, or go to one of the accessible voting sites (including at the King County Administration Building), such as the King County Administration Building, and be prepared to stand in queue for awhile. If you lost your ballot, there is a replacement process, but going to an accessible voting site is also an obvious solution.

Check out the link on the top line for STB’s endorsements.  You can also try ReadySetVote.org, a service of the Muni League, which features our endorsements among others.

The latest figures from the Public Disclosure Commission show that the No on 1631 campaign has broken the record for most money raised for a political campaign in the State of Washington, having raised $31.3 million, nearly all of it from oil companies headquartered in other states.

Until this year, the most money ever spent for or against a ballot measure or candidate in Washington State was the No side on Initiative 522 in 2013 (which would have required the labelling of genetically-modified foods), which raised $26.7 million. This year’s Yes on I-1634 campaign (“Yes! to Affordable Groceries”) is third all-time, having raised over $20.2 million.

The most expensive candidate campaign was Patty Murray’s re-election effort in 2010, hauling in $17.1 million. That campaign now ranks fifth in all-time fundraising behind the three initiative campaigns mentioned above and the $20.1 million spent by 2011’s Yes on 1183 (allowing private liquor sales in the state) campaign.

The next most-expensive candidate effort was Rob McKenna’s $13.8 million unsuccessful bid for governor in 2012, but that comes behind several more initiative campaigns in the rankings, including the Yes on 1631 campaign, which has raised $15.4 million, putting it fifth among initiative campaigns, and sixth among all races.

With the opposition basically reduced to oil companies and those opposed to taxing carbon pollution (which even the Times spent lots of paragraphs to eventually admit is its real qualm), the Yes side digging as financially deep as it can muster, and the 41%-59% drubbing I-732 got, it seems unlikely anyone is going to try a carbon tax initiative again if this one fails. The Legislature has had many more opportunities, and gotten nowhere.

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• TCC is hiring an outreach and engagement director.
• A sophisticated, even-keeled tweetstorm (!) about the politics of street space.
• Bike share expansion is stalled because of a complaint by Elizabeth Campbell.
• Meanwhile, Pierce County considers road improvements to enable more sprawl.
• Metro pedestrian fatality lawsuit ($) settled.
• Portland Chamber supports kicking cars out of the transit mall – but only as an alternative to a “bike highway” on another street.
• It’s a delicate balance to support electric cars while avoiding the trap of thinking they’re sufficient.
• CAHSR wins in court again.
• Jarrett Walker hiring a freelance cartographer, very quickly.
• Montlake freeway expansion is $30M over budget
• UPS adds bicycle delivery ($) in Seattle

This is an open thread.

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Metro and Sound Transit have a new proposal to restructure bus service on the “North Eastside” in order to take advantage of new opportunities arising from University Link and improvements in the SR 520 corridor. Metro abandoned a previous effort to make similar changes right after U-Link opened due to a perceived absence of public comment. Riders interested in increasing the utility of the bus network to get multiple places in a short amount of time should be sure to comment this time.

While University Link was a squandered opportunity, three new stimuli are coming: closure of the Downtown Transit Tunnel to buses in March 2019, closure of the Montlake Flyer stop, also in March 2019, and Northgate Link opening in 2021. Beyond that, East Link and I-405 BRT will provide yet more options. Riders will have to deal with the immediate challenges using the existing network next summer, but in September 2019 there could be a restructure with the following ingredients:

1. Redirect Kirkland’s workhorse, the 255, to UW Station to avoid the 520/I-5 mess and Downtown Seattle surface streets, with operating savings going into more frequency.
2. Flush most of the network of low-ridership, zigzagging routes that serve Kirkland in favor of somewhat straighter routes.
3. Fix the Montlake Triangle bus stops, as advocates have asked Metro, Sound Transit, and UW to do since well before U-Link opened.
4. A new ST Express route from Redmond and Kirkland to South Lake Union.
5. New, Uber-ish  “Community Ride” service in Woodinville (weekend-only) and Kenmore. The vanpool-ish “Community Van” service would extend to Kirkland from its current scope in Bothell, Woodinville, and Kenmore.

Existing freeway peak expresses to Downtown Seattle would not change, so most people still have their rush hour one-seat rides into downtown Seattle. More on the changes below.

Continue reading “Metro Mulls a Kirkland Redo”

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