Our Improbable Growth Targets

Regional projections indicate a sharp slowing in Seattle and Bellevue, while Tacoma and Everett accelerate.
Regional projections indicate a sharp slowing of growth in Seattle and Bellevue, while Tacoma and Everett accelerate (year 2000 population=100%).

Recent Census data showed another year of strong growth in Seattle and Bellevue. Everett and Tacoma grew more slowly. This raised a familiar question: why are regional plans so out of step with recent experience? Seattle grew 2 1/2 times faster than either Everett or Tacoma in the last five years. Bellevue and other cities on the Central Eastside are also developing quickly. What would cause a reversal of these trends so that Tacoma and Everett can grow into their ambitious 2040 goals?

Regional growth plans are a mix of forecasting and policy-making. The State Office of Financial Management produces state and county forecasts. OFM population forecasts determine targets for housing growth, which are apportioned between cities by PSRC and county planning processes. In each county, the largest ‘Metropolitan’ cities (Seattle, Bellevue, Tacoma and Everett) are allocated a portion of the anticipated growth. Other cities are allocated lesser shares of expected growth, as are unincorporated areas within the Urban Growth Area (UGA). Few unincorporated urban areas remain within King County, but many fast-growing suburbs in Pierce and Snohomish are unincorporated. Lower targets are set for rural areas outside the urban boundary.

The median housing target sets the floor for zoned capacity. Cities and Counties must zone for sufficient developable capacity. Some cities zone for greater capacity than required; others do the minimum to stay in compliance. Much planned development is within Regional Growth Centers.

Benchmarking recent data against the PSRC’s Land Use Vision puts the forecasts in context.

Pierce and Snohomish Counties have grown faster than King for decades. But King County recovered more quickly from the recession. Maybe it’s premature to conclude the ‘normal’ suburban growth norm won’t reassert itself. But other center cities in the US are also outpacing their suburbs. If the flight to the suburbs is really over, should we expect King to lag its neighbors in the future?

State forecasts are for Pierce and Snohomish County to outpace King, in a reversion to historical trends of faster growth in the suburbs
State forecasts are for Pierce and Snohomish County to outpace King, in a reversion to historical norms of faster growth in the suburbs.

King County, having recently outpaced forecasts with urban-focused growth, is expected to revert to the mean. Some of the reversion is just bureaucratic inertia as complex multi-jurisdictional planning processes play catch-up. The 2040 forecast implies a slowdown across King County with just 0.55% average growth over the next 25 years. That compares unfavorably to the 1.85% average countywide, and 2.4% in Seattle, observed over the last five years. This slow pace would restore the past balance between the counties.

Growth is to slow slightly in Pierce and Snohomish, but will outpace King County. Pierce and Snohomish planners are predicting dramatic changes in how their counties grow.

Continue reading “Our Improbable Growth Targets”

How to Improve Access to Capitol Hill Station

BY DAVID SEATER

This article is cross-posted from Central Seattle Greenways.

On February 29, 2016, Central Seattle Greenways volunteers and Seattle Neighborhood Greenways staff met at Capitol Hill Station to conduct an accessibility audit of the station area. We focused on three priorities: safety of street crossings, obstructions in crosswalks and along sidewalks, and sidewalk capacity. The station is expected to serve 14,000 riders every day in 2030, making safety and accessibility of the entrances a significant priority.

The map below shows the audit area. Intersections that were assessed are circled, and station entrances are marked with stars. Specifically, the intersections were: Broadway E & E John St / E Olive Way, Broadway E & E Denny Way, Broadway Ave E & E Thomas St, Harvard Ave E & E Olive Way, and 10th Ave E & E John St.

Assessed intersections are circled in red, station entrances are marked with green stars.
Assessed intersections are circled in red, station entrances are marked with green stars.

We identified several common problems at the intersections and the sidewalks connecting them:

  • Obstructions (poles, hydrants) in or very near curb ramps
  • Obstructions (poles, signal cabinets, A-boards) blocking painted crosswalks
  • Ramps misaligned on opposite sides of a crosswalk
  • Ramps turned at an angle to the crosswalk
  • Drivers making dangerous turns through occupied crosswalks
  • Difficult crossings of John (at 10th) and Olive (at Harvard)
  • Sidewalks narrowed by obstructions (trash cans, newspaper boxes, A-boards, shelters)

Easy Wins – Quick, low cost solutions:

Continue reading “How to Improve Access to Capitol Hill Station”

Sound Transit Q1 2016 Ridership

Sounder Bruce (Flickr)
Sounder Bruce (Flickr)

Amid the breaking news last week of the Sound Transit 3 Draft Plan Update, Sound Transit’s Q1 Ridership Report got a bit buried. The Q2 report will be far more consequential, being the first one with a full quarter of ULink ridership, but even so there are interesting (and mostly positive) trends from the Q1 data.

Link

Even with just 2 weeks of ULink service, Link ridership was up 27% from Q1 2015with 3 million boardings and an average weekday ridership of 38,371. Subtracting the two weeks of ULink service returns a 12.5% growth rate over Q1 2015. Q2 may be the first quarter in which Link ridership exceeds all ST Express routes combined, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Sounder

Sounder set a new quarterly record, breaking the 1 million boardings mark with a weekday average of 16,292. The South Line was up 15%, and the North Line up 12%. But the South Line remains an order of magnitude larger, with nearly 11 times the ridership of the North Line.

ST Express

Total ST Express ridership grew just one percent, with 4.4 million boardings and a weekday average of 62,509. Most routes added a small number of riders, but a few lost riders, including Routes 522 and 574. Route 586 lost 19% of its riders, partially driven by UW students shifting to the 590s+Link in the final 2 weeks of March. New service on Route 541 only existed for one week of Q1, and it didn’t start quickly out of the gate, with just 2,215 riders, or 443 per weekday.

Tacoma Link

Tacoma Link lost 5% of its riders. Tacoma Link has lost ridership in 4 of the last 5 quarters, though total decline has been small.

South Sounder in ST3

Opening Ceremony

Sound Transit 3 materials have not said a lot about the agency’s successful South Sounder service. Most of the attention in that subregion has gone into extending the light rail “spine” into Tacoma. Sounder will actually have a quicker running time from Tacoma to Seattle, although Link may have its advantages for somewhat spontaneous Tacoma-Seattle trips, those outside commuter rail operating hours, and trips within the South King Link corridor. That said, there is a significant (if vague) commitment to Sounder in the package. And it’s vague for a good reason.

Currently ST runs 8 peak-direction round trips and 2 reverse-peak round trips. 6 of the 8 go to Lakewood. The peaks arrive in Seattle between 5:54 and 9:09am and leave from 3:12-6:20pm. The 2016 Service Implementation Plan says that existing funding will produce an off-peak round trip this September. In September 2017, ST will add a ninth peak round trip and a third reverse-peak round trip. And that’s it for South Sounder without further authorization.

The current ST3 proposal for South Sounder has four components:
  • Facilities and train cars necessary to support 10-car trains. This is a fairly bounded set of improvements, up from 7 cars today.
  • Station access improvements. This runs the usual spectrum from sidewalks to parking spaces, including speed and reliability improvements for approaching buses. As always, the exact form of these will depend on many rounds of exchange with Sounder communities, and ST will not commit to a framework for these now.
  • Trains to Tillicum and Dupont. Four of the six round trips to Lakewood would start in Dupont instead, with no need for additional trainsets. The 8-mile extension would cost about $300m for 1,000-1,500 riders per day.
  • “Elements to expand service levels.” More trains!
But how many trains? Sound Transit can’t say. “We’re purposefully oblique about what it is in the plan,”  ST Executive Ric Ilgenfritz told us, “because we’re in the midst of a negotiation with the railroad.”

BNSF and ST are discussing capital improvements — adding a third track in at least some places is probably the biggest chunk — and assessing the extent to which those improvements allow additional Sounder trips without severely impairing freight operations. The budget available, minimum and maximum achievable service packages, and open time windows for trips are all confidential.

I asked Mr. Ilgenfritz to step back from what the current ST3 constraints are, and describe his ultimate goals for South Sounder. He expressed the hope that it could run hourly all day and into the evening, with even more intensive peak service, and even a few weekend round trips if demand justified it. That vision will almost certainly not occur in ST3, but every part of the day is on the table.

It’s hard to say when the negotiations will conclude. With luck it would finish before late June’s formal approval of the package, but it could easily drag on to the election. But it appears riders in the Sounder corridor have a lot to look forward to.

Memorial Day Service Reductions

NW Folklife 2016

Monday, May 30 is Memorial Day, which is the traditional final day of Northwest Folklife Festival, at the Seattle Center, wherein you will likely find hired petitioners gathering signatures for lots of state ballot initiatives, including possibly one or two initiatives designed to kick the legs out from under transit funding. If someone has a stack of several initiatives they are asking you to sign, feel free to politely ask lots of questions, but please don’t sign and give them a signature they can copy onto the other initiatives. (They are paid by the signature.)

But back to the matter at hand: Transit agencies traditionally reduce service on Memorial Day, even while large crowds throng festivals like Folklife. Some rural transit agencies shut down for the day. So, plan ahead, and always have a designated driver if you are going to partake and don’t have transit to get you home. And then, drivers, hang up and drive.

The big improvement in Memorial Day service, year over year, is in Snohomish County, where Community Transit will be providing service the day before and the day of Memorial Day for the first time in several years. And, of course, you can now take various bus routes to UW Station, take Link to Westlake Station, and walk, bikeshare, ride the bus, or take the monorail (which still does not accept ORCA, otherwise, I would just be saying take the monorail) to the Seattle Center.

Any companies offering free or reduced-fare rides on Memorial Day weekend are encouraged to mention your service in the Comments.

The full list of Sunday and Memorial Day service levels for transit agencies around the region is below the fold. Continue reading “Memorial Day Service Reductions”

Sound Transit’s Updated ST3 Plan: Bigger, Faster, Stronger

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AvGeek Joe (Flickr)

Responding to universal angst about the pace of the Sound Transit 3 (ST3) Draft Plan, this afternoon the Sound Transit (ST) Board introduced a series of amendments that propose a leaner, faster Sound Transit 3 measure. The Board will vote on each of these amendments at its Special Meeting on June 2, ahead of a final vote on June 23 to adopt the plan and send it to the ballot. Cumulatively, these amendments represent a dramatic improvement in nearly every aspect of the plan, and they indicate a clear responsiveness by Sound Transit on behalf of the public. Advocates won or at least saw movement on nearly every issue.

The amendments were preceded by presentations from CEO Peter Rogoff and CFO Brian McCartan on project delivery and the ST3 finance plan, respectively. Rogoff outlined his desired improvements in project delivery, including narrowing studied alternatives, bringing jurisdictions in earlier in the process, establishing schedules well ahead of final design, and looking at new procurement processes such as “Design/Build”. Rogoff seemed intent on sharing the burden for timely delivery with the host cities, and ensuring that cities and counties are more joint partner going forward rather than just permitting authorities.

But the real news came from CFO McCartan’s Finance Plan update. We’ll be getting more details in a meeting with ST finance staff next week, but staff told STB that Sound Transit underestimated its bonding capacity by up to 10%, with the recalculation centering on the tricky overlap period between the winding down of ST2 bonds and the ramping up of ST3 bonds. All other financial policies will likely remain intact, as will all other conservative planning assumptions (such as a 6-year EIS process per project). So the timeline improvements above reflect primarily financing considerations, and there would be considerable scope for further improvement via streamlined permitting and environmental review.

Chart by the Author
Chart by the Author

North King (Seattle)

  • The Ballard Line would be fully grade separated and be delivered 3 years sooner, in 2035 instead of 2038.
  • The West Seattle line gains 3 years, moving from 2033 to 2030
  • In a huge win for advocates, the 130th Street Station gets full funding, though it would open in 2031.
  • Graham Street Station gains 5 years, moving from 2036 to 2031.
  • Sound Transit will make a roughly 10% contribution to Madison BRT and pay for interim improvements on Rapid Ride C and D.

South King County

Continue reading “Sound Transit’s Updated ST3 Plan: Bigger, Faster, Stronger”

ST3 Liveblog

Today’s the big day. At today’s Sound Transit (ST) Board Meeting, the Board will offer amendments to the Draft Plan released in March. Today is the single most consequential day in shaping what will be the final plan adopted in June. Will timelines change? Will new projects be added or projects cut? We’ll be tweeting at @seatransitblog, and the feed will be embedded here. Follow along from 1:30pm-4:00pm!


News Roundup: Despite the Complaining

King County Metro 2015 New Flyer XT40 4380

This is an open thread.

Smarter Rules for Backyard Cottages

Oh DADUs, we just can't quit you
DADUs in the city

Backyard cottages are popular in theory, yet few homeowners end up building them.  Just 221 have been built in the nine years that they’ve been legal(far fewer than Vancouver), despite the fact that 75,000 lots in the city are eligible to have one. Councilmember Mike O’Brien, whose been on the cottage beat for several years now., is looking to increase production with a slate of reforms that would streamline the construction of backyard cottages or DADUs (that’s Detached Accessory Dwelling Unit).  You can read more from Stephen at the Urbanist here or Erica on her site.  Even Knute Berger’s on board.

Along with some simplifications to the code (like normalizing height limits and where front doors are allowed to be placed), there are two headline changes.  The first would remove the off-street parking requirement for DADUs inside urban villages. Requiring two off-street spaces for car storage drastically reduces the available space for a cottage.  Furthermore, under current law, one can currently build an apartment building or townhouse development inside an urban village without parking, but a DADU property in the same urban village must have 2 off-street spaces.  Fixing this imbalance is common sense. Lest anyone worry about an impending parking crisis, the report notes that, in Portland, 2/3 of cottage dwellers don’t park cars on the street, even though there’s no requirement to provide them with parking.

The second big change would lower the owner-occupancy requirement to 12 months.  After that, the owner  would be free to rent out both units.  This would remove some economic uncertainty around resale and possibly make banks more willing to finance DADU construction.

The original owner-occupancy requirement comes from homeowners fearing hordes of renters descending on their neighborhoods.  But this fear seems overblown, even if you set aside the ugly “renters are less-than” rhetoric that undergirds some of these conversations.  It may shock many of these folks to learn that it’s currently legal to rent a house in a single family neighborhood. Believe it or not, its a popular option for groups of young (and not-so-young) people. They have chore wheels and everything.

At any rate, managing detached home rentals turns out to be quite labor-intensive and generally unappealing to large institutional investors. It’s unlikely we’ll see a rush of big developers looking to flood the city with backyard cottages.

Nonetheless, this package of reforms makes a ton of sense, and even though it’s incredibly mild and a huge walk-down from the original HALA proposal, it will likely still generate lots of anger from a few loud homeowners.  It’s worth emailing city council and letting them know you support it.