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North by Northwest 63: Barring Rep. Dave Hayes Amendment Passing, the Tri-County Connector Will Die 31 July

Black & White of an Island Transit 411W at Oak Harbor
My photo of an Island Transit Route 411W Tri-County Connector

On 22 May 2015, the Island Transit Board made the gut-wrenching decision that due to Island Transit’s fiscal troubles, the lack of state support and the refusal of Skagit Transit to serve to Deception Pass to unless Representative Dave Hayes’ amendment passes stand down the Tri-County Connector on 31 July.  That means no Island Transit service not just to March’s Point, but also no Island Transit service to Skagit Station in Mount Vernon.  Island Transit will however serve North Whidbey in a limited way up to Deception Pass and provide services for Camano Island residents to link to Stanwood & Community Transit services flowing from Stanwood to points south.  Overall, although Island Transit Boardmembers were audibly if not visibly distraught at making this decision – and there’s video below, without the Hayes Amendment to provide some state funding connected to charging a fare, the money is just not in Island Transit coffers to provide linkage services between Whidbey Island & Camano Island.

To spare our Seattle Transit Blog e-mails as I too am on e-mail subscription, I’ve put in a Read More jump below.  Also figure some of you may not be interested…

Continue reading “North by Northwest 63: Barring Rep. Dave Hayes Amendment Passing, the Tri-County Connector Will Die 31 July”

New downtown tunnel for light rail, current one for buses and streetcars

Both transit advocates and politicians have been discussing the idea of a second downtown tunnel through Seattle. The tunnel would act as the foundation for future rail service to Ballard and West Seattle. Seattle Subway’s proposal currently looks like this and seeks to address a few issues:

  • Mitigates the closing (for buses) of the current Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel by building the tunnel initially for buses
  • Provides capacity enhancements in the downtown core
  • Can provide exclusive lanes for buses heading to West Seattle and Ballard

The proposed tunnel could also have a few drawbacks:

  • Costs of unused railway infrastructure: If the tunnel were to be built initially with railway infrastructure (tracks, power and communications) as Seattle Subway suggests, these would still require some form of maintenance even if they were not being used. These infrastructure components don’t stand still over time, and will have an aging effect. No one really knows how long it would take for rail services to begin, but it would be a waste to maintain infrastructure that is not being used.
  • There are only 3 stations (Westlake, Madison and International District), fewer than the current DSTT. Although this would give a direct connection to Madison BRT, it would also mean that buses serving the new tunnel have farther stop spacing and potentially shorter travel times than light rail in the DSTT, the opposite of what it should be.
  • Conversion to rail could be a slow process due to institutional and political inertia, which may result in another DSTT situation where buses are “phased out”. The lesson to be learned from the DSTT, is that joint-operations is difficult and results in unreliable service for every mode, even six years into operations.
  • Alignment constraint in the current DSTT are not addressed, such as the Westlake or Chinatown curves

In an attempt to explore how these issues could be resolved, I’ve created another proposal, which is a tunnel on 4th Ave that will accommodate all light rail services from the beginning and in the future. The current DSTT will then serve buses (again) and potentially streetcars. The “Westlake curve” will also be removed, allowing higher speeds in the tunnel. Here are the key advantages of this proposal:

  • Removes infrastructure constraints from the network: The current DSTT has a few limitations on speed and acceleration. One is the horizontal shift in the rails before and after the platforms. The others are the tight curves just south of Westlake and International District. With a new tunnel, Sound Transit can take advantage of the (rare) opportunity to remove those limitations by designing a large-radius curve between University St and Capitol Hill, while using better transitions before/after the stations. This will allow for higher travel speeds through Downtown Seattle. This also removes one of the infrastructure constraints that prevents Sound Transit from purchasing higher-capacity non-articulated vehicles, such as those on standard subway systems.
  • Immediate travel time and capacity improvements for the entire regional light rail network: With infrastructure limitations removed and stops modified, higher travel speeds through Downtown Seattle will not just improve local travel time, but regional travel time. Both Central Link and East Link stand to gain a few minutes, along with reliability improvements. With higher stop spacing, punctuality and faster travel times, the capacity of the tunnel can also be increased to accommodate trains from additional lines. Converging multiple lines in one city center tunnel will provide a very high-frequency service through downtown
  • More leverage for regional funding: The prospects of regional funding for a tunnel that will, at its beginning, only serve Seattle routes will be a tough sell. However, if it can be used by regional rail in the beginning (Central Link and East Link), and provide travel time/frequency improvements on opening day, there could be more leverage to ask for improvements.
  • Separation of operations from day one: Dedicating the new tunnel to rail on opening day will prevent a repeat of DSTT. Joint-operations doesn’t work for a variety of reasons, but the basic concept is that rail operations are completely different from bus operations. Rail involves one large vehicle regulated by signals, occupying a section of the track at a time as it travels through the tunnel. Bus operations involve several vehicles, arriving and departing at various times. This has the potential to occupy multiple sections of track simultaneously, delaying service behind it. Providing a separation from day one will avoid this situation.
  • DSTT can serve both buses and streetcars: DSTT rail infrastructure could be converted to serve streetcars. Joint operations for streetcars and buses would be more compatible than light rail and buses, as their operation philosophy is mostly similar (short vehicles that can operate in mixed traffic without dedicated signalling systems). Some modifications will have to be made. This includes extending the width of the platforms by about 3 inches to accommodate the narrower streetcars, but the floor height is roughly the same (355 mm for Link and 350 for Seattle’s streetcars). Streetcars will also have to be capable of running at 1500 V DC in the tunnel and 750 V DC on the surface, although dual-mode operations are not uncommon elsewhere in the world.

Of course, no proposal is without drawbacks:

  • The most obvious drawback is that Central Link and East Link will skip Westlake Station, which is necessary to provide the large-radius curve between University and Capitol Hill. The good news is that the DSTT will still serve Westlake, and a future light rail extension to Ballard could reintroduce light rail service beneath the current Westlake platforms. Skipping the station also improves travel times for the regional-oriented Central and East Link lines.
  • Construction impacts when service is transitioned to the new tunnel
  • Bus and streetcar services in the DSTT depends on the fate of the Convention Place Station, and whether access to the DSTT will be preserved after its expansion. If not, a new access point will have to be built.

Comments? Ideas? Share your thoughts below!

Transit Day in San Diego

I recently had a dreaded first-flight out/last-flight back business trip scheduled to San Diego. My alarm was set for 4am, my bag was packed and all I had to do was roll out of bed, take a shower and get to the airport by 5am. Because I live south of downtown it would have been possible for me to take either of the first 2 southbound Link trips and get to the airport in time for my flight. But I was concerned about the possibility of a late flight arriving back in Seattle after the last Link trip, so I chose to drive to the airport. At 430am traffic is very light and the drive to the airport took about the same amount of time it would have taken to walk to the Link station. Also, the $28 all-day parking fee is less than what a taxi would cost at 1am.

Although I chose to forego the public transit option in Seattle, I did plan to use public transit from the San Diego airport to downtown San Diego. Lindbergh Field is less than 2.5 miles from downtown so it’s pretty easy to get from the airport to downtown via public transit: Route 992 runs all day at mostly 15 minute headways, the trip takes about 12 minutes, the fare is $2.25 and the stops are right outside each airport terminal. San Diego’s Metropolitan Transit System (MTS) also sells an all-day pass for $5, but it is only available with a Compass Card (the MTS equivalent of ORCA, except that a Compass Card costs $2). The problem is that there aren’t any TVMs at any of the airport terminals that I could find that would issue a Compass Card. It is possible to buy a paper all-day pass on a bus, but it costs $7 and doesn’t provide an official, reusable plastic Compass Card. I know I will be making several more trips to San Diego and having a Compass Card will be handy, so I paid $2.25 for the trip to downtown and bought a Compass Card at a TVM in America Plaza with an all-day pass for an additional $7. Two day ($9) and three day ($12) passes are also available at the TVMs with a Compass Card.

My expectation when I left home at 430am was a long day of work ahead in San Diego; but, thanks to my associates, there was actually very little work that I had to deal with once I arrived in town. In fact, by lunchtime, I was done with my work day and I had over 8 hours to kill before my return flight. So I decided to do a little San Diego sightseeing courtesy of MTS and my Compass Card. My first planned expedition was to take a grand circle trip of the area via the Green and Orange Lines of the San Diego Trolleys. Just to clarify, what San Diego calls a trolley is what Seattle calls light rail and there are no electric powered, rubber tired transit coaches in San Diego. Unfortunately, the Green Line offers very little scenery and serves mostly shopping malls, a football stadium and stations located next to freeways. So I abandoned my grand circle plan at San Diego State University station and walked around the nearby business district hoping to find something equivalent to the U District in Seattle. No luck with that either, so I returned to the SDSU TC and looked for a bus to somewhere else. The 215 Rapid seemed to be the best bet. The 215 Rapid looked like a BRT route to downtown San Diego via Balboa Park. In reality, the 215 Rapid is a watered down version of Metro’s RapidRide service: the 215 makes fewer stops and the stations are distinct, bigger and better than a regular MTS bus stop, but no off-board payment is available and the buses aren’t noticeably different from other MTS coaches. The 215 also travels a route that is pretty equivalent to Aurora Avenue between SDSU and Balboa Park. So I abandoned the 215 at Balboa Park.

Getting off at Balboa Park was an excellent idea. I spent a couple of hours enjoying the sunshine and I ventured into the Model Railroad Museum for a tour. I know model railroading isn’t everyone’s idea of a good time, but if you have any interest in model trains, you must take trip/pilgrimage to the Balboa Park Museum. I won’t go into a long review of the museum, but it’s a 5 star experience for anyone who might be interested in model railroading.

After I left Balboa Park I didn’t have a definite plan for the next few hours, but I was hungry so I decided to hunt for another bus and hopefully take it somewhere interesting (other than downtown). The first bus stop I encountered didn’t have any schedule or precise destination information, but it did have a stop number and signage that said “text stop number 12757 to 46687” for schedule information. Within seconds the stop schedule information was texted back to my phone. And that was pretty much how I spent the rest of my day until I caught the 992 back to the airport.

Overall, riding transit in San Diego is pretty easy and economical. Most routes are on 15 minutes or better headways. Every bus I rode was well maintained and clean. The drivers were friendly and the network is relatively easy to figure out for a visitor. Fares are $2.25 for regular buses and trolleys, $2.50 for express routes and $5.00 for peak hour long distance trippers. On the bus stop signs the fare for each route is clearly displayed and every bus has a dash board sign with the appropriate fare. The Compass Card has eliminated the need for paper transfers. The trolleys are proof-of-payment and there is very heavy enforcement during rush hour. Every platform had 2-4 uniformed FEOs checking just about every passenger which seemed quite heavy-handed and likely not very cost effective.

If you are planning a trip to San Diego, I highly recommend buying a Compass Card and forgetting about the rental car.

One way to solve the 11 E Madison Problem

I have a new proposal for the 11 E Madison bus based on the BRT idea of running every other bus to past 23rd Ave East. How about running the 11 as is alternating with the 12? The 11 would run from Madison Park to the Pike/Pine corridor downtown and the 12 would do a coast to coast run on Madison.

I would even go further suggesting that the 12 if not both 11 and 12 become trolley buses. The current 12 uses trolley buses on the downtown hills. I realize that some man not like trolley buses on east end of Madison and this may not be possible without additional funding!

Given the frequency that Metro is talking about with Prop One funding the 11 and 12 would at least run every 30 minutes and possibly more during peak hours which is being funded by Seattle’s Bridge the Gap.

This proposal gives access to the downtown business area and to Light Rail with a two plus block walk on Broadway. This would also give us the 10 and 11 to handle traffic to the Community College.

This idea does not preclude the BRT replacing the new 12 in the future. So what do you think of this idea and do you have any ideas on how to solve the Denny problem on the 8.

Transit objectives should be defined before its infrastructure

As Seattle’s transit advocates, we often like to brainstorm about transit infrastructure because it generates discussions. It helps define what the region wants, and these discussions often drive politics. Light rail connections, BRT, and a second downtown tunnel are just some highlights of an ever-growing wish-list.

However, our focus on modes and infrastructure also leads us to overlook the actual objectives of these transit investments. We ask ourselves whether we want light rail and BRT, but rarely do we emphasize, “How quick and reliable should the system to be?” or “What is this system trying to accomplish?”

As a result, transit advocates are often surprised by operational deficiencies late in the process, leading to reactions like this:

We have supported RapidRide and BRT from the beginning but Metro and the Council have let “BRT creep” and politics take over, not what is best for riders. When RapidRide C and D lines open on October 1st we’ll have a glorified shiny new bus that is slower than existing service. – STB

Part of the reason is because specific objectives are not clearly defined before transit is built. There were never defined travel times or reliability requirements from the beginning. We simply said “Build BRT” and assumed that everything would work out. As a result, decision makers have leeway to push for more infill stations to satisfy a few constituents, because why not? There was no legal requirement for what the actual travel time between A and B should have been. It’s easy to backtrack and modify service objectives that were never well-defined in the first place.

On the other hand, if we had defined our objectives as, “The BRT system shall travel between Aurora Village and Downtown Seattle in 35 minutes, at 90% punctuality within 10 minutes of the scheduled time”, and made them project requirements from the beginning, the results may have been different.

I can’t speak for all engineers and planners, but I would suspect that most (myself included) would not only prefer clear objectives to accomplish, but also more defense against backtracking due to political pressure. If decision makers want to satisfy a few constituents with an infill station, clearly-defined project requirements would provide more leverage to say, “Adding this infill station would breach the project conditions, unless there was more funding for a bus-only lane.”

I’ve been using BRT examples, but this applies to rail as well. If we had defined that we wanted a regional rail network with a 40-minute connection between Everett and Seattle, we could say that the currently proposed half hour travel time between Lynnwood and Everett is far too slow. However, we specified little more than the fact that we wanted a train. In the end, we got light rail, which takes 7 minutes to travel 1.3 miles through Downtown Seattle and is proposed to spend an hour between Westlake and Everett (28 minutes to Lynnwood and 30 more to Everett).

This pattern needs to change, and we can start by modifying our planning process: Define specific and realistic service objectives, reach a consensus with agencies, and make the objectives part of the project requirements.

Including specific preconditions into the discussion process, enforcing them and defending them against negative political interests will make the outcomes of our transit investments more predictable. After all, transit should be built to achieve mobility goals, not just for the sake of building it. Let’s take a look at how we can add these objectives to our discussions.

A few examples for defining objectives

Service objectives should be defined before the infrastructure. These should be specific, measurable and realistic, rather than general descriptions such as “improve reliability”.

Here are examples of what specific objectives could look like (with fictitious numbers):

  • Travel times (e.g. West Seattle to Ballard within 30 minutes)
  • Reliability (e.g. 95% punctuality between West Seattle and Ballard, where a vehicle is on-time when it arrives within 5 minutes of scheduled time)
  • Frequency (e.g. Provide the capability to run trains at 90-second frequencies)

By specifying these objectives in our discussions, we can begin a dialogue with agencies to determine whether they are realistic. Once a consensus has been reached and the objectives determined, there should be a method to enforce these objectives, giving agencies more leverage to ask for funding or defend against political interests. Service objectives would then determine the infrastructure, such as whether surface options would even be worth considering.

We would then hopefully be presented with several alternatives that, more or less, satisfy our objectives, rather than receiving a smorgasbord of varying options with questionable operational effectiveness and then collectively wailing. In the end, we may also save ourselves from wondering what the infrastructure is actually capable of.

Moving forward with our discussions

Setting clear quantifiable objectives in cooperation with our agencies will help them better determine what people really want from transit investments. Providing means to enforce these objectives will give agencies more leverage to push back against political influence. With potentially billions in transit investments around the corner and discussions about to begin, we need to refine how we plan transit. After all, why vote for and throw money at projects without fully knowing what they’re trying to accomplish?

As we move forward, discuss and define the travel times that regional rail or urban rail should provide, not whether we should build light rail. Discuss and define the reliability that BRT should provide, not whether we should have bus lanes. The infrastructure (and funding) should be decided only after it is known what will be accomplished. By setting service objectives earlier in the process with agencies and turning those objectives into requirements (this is worth its own discussion), we may actually get the system that we expected to get.

North by Northwest View 17: A Rider’s Suboptimum Experience on Sounder North…

A Sounder North Train Pulls Into Mukilteo Station... In Kodachrome

My photo: A Sounder North Train Pulls Into Mukilteo Station… In Kodachrome

Introduction

I’ve decided to divided this write-up into three sections: The trip home, the Sound Transit response, suggested rider experience improvements and concluding thoughts.  With that, here goes.

The Trip Home

Recently, I was in Mukilteo combining a fact-finding mission with business travel and got to as part of that fact-finding mission interview Mukilteo Mayor Jennifer Gregerson.  As part of that fact-finding mission, I took Sounder North to Mukilteo Station from Everett Station and then erred doing the same going back.  However, I did get this nice photo of almost 70 cars in the Mukilteo Station parking lot:

Mukilteo Station at 4:23 PM, 8 May 2015

Problem is, I was a bit early to the first 4:47 PM train but had to wait until (according to my camera) 5:18 PM for my train to Everett – a full 31 minutes late.  I also had to relieve me behind the bush as there was no public restroom – an act degrading to my dignity and possibly to Mukilteo residents’ dignity as well.  Between me with a simple LG 500G Tracfone and a lady crossing the train tracks with a smartphone we were unable to check the Sound Transit website because our phones would be unable to handle the Sound Transit website – too much data or something.

          [For those on e-mail subscription like I, I’ve decided to insert a jump point here so if you want to read the rest of the story – just click the header.  Or if you’re at the full size page read on.]

Continue reading “North by Northwest View 17: A Rider’s Suboptimum Experience on Sounder North…”

North by Northwest 62: Take the 20th Off If You Can… and Come to Anacortes

Vigor Sea Trials M/V Samish

WSDOT Flickr Feed: Vigor Sea Trials M/V Samish

No seriously.  If you can get the 20th off, you should.  I’m only going to advertise this event once but wanted to give maximum notice so transit geeks can file to get the day off.  Granted I wish WSDOT had the M/V Samish open house and Washington Policy Center/WPC had their upcoming pundit fest on Saturday the 23rd*, but oh well.

On May 20th, it’s going to be a great day to be a transit geek in Anacortes.  One thing I should note from the get-go is that Skagit Transit Route 410 – which has connections in 413 to Burlington & 40X to Mount Vernon – will take you right up to the open house and is a short walk away from the WPC event.   Below are many details of the M/V Samish open house to check out the new ferry and get to see the wheelhouse and hopefully more normally off limits to passengers for logical reasons.

Vigor Sea Trials M/V Samish

M/V Samish Christening and Open House
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
Anacortes Ferry Terminal

2100 Ferry Terminal Road Anacortes, WA 98221

Open House hours are from 10 a.m. until 4 p.m.

Stop by any time throughout the day to explore your new ferry and take part in the festivities

Complimentary refreshments served

 Activities for kids

Christening celebration at 1:30 p.m.

Remarks from dignitaries

Tribal ceremony with the Samish Indian Nation

 Vessel christening by First Lady Trudi Inslee

This event is free of charge, open to the public and is ADA accessible.

Getting to the event

The event will be held aboard the M/V Samish at the Anacortes ferry terminal. Visitors coming from the mainland may drive and park in the upper lot of the Anacortes terminal. Visitors coming from the islands are encouraged to walk-on rather than bringing a vehicle. Passengers arriving via ferry will be issued tickets for free walk-on return passage, valid for same day travel.

Parking

Parking in the Anacortes terminal upper parking lot is free for this event. As you approach the ferry terminal, stay to the left to avoid the line for the tollbooths and follow the signs for event parking. Shuttle service will run continuously between the upper parking lot and the terminal building from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m.

Need more info?

If you have a question about the Samish Christening and Open House or would like more information, please contact Event Coordinator Rachel Waitt at rachel.waitt-AT-wsdot-DOT-wa-DOT-gov or (206) 515-3944.

Because I’m a nice person, I decided to convert Rachel’s e-mail to anti-spam.  But based on photos of the MV Tokitae open house including inside the wheelhouse, it’s well worth the trip to Anacortes.

Also later that day between 5 PM & 7 PM, Washington Policy Center/WPC is having a free reception with all their pundits at the San Juan Airlines terminal at the Anacortes Airport – a 15 minute hike from Hwy 20 & Anacopper Rd.  All obviously includes WPC’s Transportation Center Director Bob Pishue so if you want to ask Bob a few questions in person about transit because you – like me – will be a mile or so away checking out a new ferry, you may.  Just please be polite with Bob.

Finally, Anacortes is relatively transit-friendly.  For a mere $2 dollars for an all day pass, you can use as much Skagit Transit/SKAT as you need to within Skagit County for the same day you buy the pass.  On the hour during this open house is a quick ride between the Anacortes Ferry Terminal and the downtown area where there’s fast food and seafood restaurants plus some great parks.  Just something to keep in mind.  Please fire off comments if you want some tips where to photograph or eat in Anacortes or how to get to/from Anacortes.  I’m certainly going to avail me of some of the trails.

Maybe we’ll all have an impromptu meet up at the WPC event at 1630 before I bow out at 1730 to head home… or we could meet-up on the MV Samish before the event ends at 4 & I depart to the airport.   Thoughts?

Photo credits: WSDOT Flickr Feed

—FOOTNOTE—

*The 16th would be problematic to say the least for avgeeks due to Heritage Flight Museum & Paine Field Aviation Day – both of which seemingly require either long walks or hiring a taxicab from the nearest bus stop.  But I digress..

North by Northwest Big Interview 01: Mukilteo Mayor Jennifer Gregerson

http://i.imgur.com/bFe1szsl.jpg

Mukilteo Mayor Jennifer Gregerson

          A while ago on a Sunday Open Thread, I aired a trial balloon of doing a podcast on transit issues.  Most of you in the STB comment threads wanted text instead so I’m going to oblige.  I’m hoping based on the responses here to make time to do this monthly or twice a month with a major newsmaker who we would not hear from otherwise that has an impact on transit services north of Lynnwood.  So here we go with the North by Northwest Big Interview!

          For my first subject, I decided to choose a friendly face and also a voice who in some of the big debates affecting the North by Northwest region who has not been heard from.  From the Future of Flight Transit Desert to the proposed Paine Field Terminal – the media has (mostly) neglected Mayor Jennifer Gregerson’ s voice.  Today is about turning that around and I sincerely appreciate her interest and participating.

          In this interview we discussed Sounder North, a substantial subject of yesterday’s main post’s comment thread.  We also discussed potential transportation options to the potential Paine Field Terminal that Propeller Airports wants to build, Community Transit, Swift 2 and finally the Future of Flight transit desert.  I’ve helpfully included appropriate pictures and hyperlinks.

          For those on e-mail subscription like I, I’ve decided to insert a jump point here so if you want to read the whole interview – just click the header.  For the over 1,200 word interview itself, read on.

Continue reading “North by Northwest Big Interview 01: Mukilteo Mayor Jennifer Gregerson”

North by Northwest 61: A Sounder North Quarterly Ridership Report

View post on imgur.com

Thursday night, I prepped the below table for a Friday interview that hopefully will go public Sunday at 12:01 AM.  But I figured it was time to put together a ridership table for the controversial Sounder North train run.  I got the Average Mean Daily Ridership by dividing the quarterly total boardings/ridership by 65 or 13 weeks X 5 days.  I then divided that number by two to get an – arguably inflated – estimate of the users using the run round trip under “AMDR/2 for Round-Trip Estimate“.  Finally due to Sounder North’s ridership depending on among other things slides and the economy to record growth by the same quarter in the previous year.  Hopefully this helps the conversation.

View post on imgur.com

So here you go.  It appears to me from the above we’re talking about a transit service that only serves 500-600 regular commuters or so.

If you want the Excel table, please e-mail me at growlernoise-at-gmail-dot-com and put in the subject line, “SOUNDER NORTH EXCEL SPREADSHEET PLEASE”.

Also would like to embed the spreadsheet, but having no luck.


Programming Note: I also yesterday had less than optimum ridership experience using Sounder North – again partially due to a need to see the Mukilteo Station’s behind schedule progress for North by Northwest – and will write about that next week after I verify some things that affirm my views on Sounder North.  Also will hopefully, finally get an Island Transit update out the door.

WPC: “Sound Transit officials may not need any tax increase to build more light rail”

Folks, if there’s any truth in this Washington Policy Center op-ed, I think we need to discuss a potential option if we do not get ST3.  Most of us here are not too keen on extending the spine to Everett with an expensive Paine Field detour of questionable value when a better bus network & a vastly improved marketing campaign would work wonders.  Almost all of us here are of the view that Ballard needs a light rail spur.

So when I came across these Washington Policy Center allegations, I had to share so we could discuss this:

Sound Transit officials may not need any tax increase to build more light rail.  How?  Because of the revenue that is hidden in the way Sound Transit officials calculate their future borrowing costs.

Sound Transit officials’ most recently adopted financial plan through 2023 assumes they will borrow $7.3 billion at a 5.75% interest rate, paid off over 30 years.  Their interest rate cost assumption is high, especially since they are actually issuing debt now at far-lower interest rates.

In 2012 Sound Transit officials borrowed $216 million at a rate of only 2.62%, less than half of what they assume as their future interest rate cost.  Just a few months ago, they borrowed $1.3 billion as a federal TIFIA loan at a 2.38% interest rate.  The TIFIA loan can be paid off over 40 years, and the first payment isn’t due until 2028!  Today, Sound Transit could borrow money for 30 years at fixed interest rates between 2% to 3% (or at lower variable rates), about half of its current budget assumption.

So what does this mean?

If Sound Transit officials simply changed their financial plan to assume a more-realistic 3% interest rate, they could borrow an additional $2.2 billion without raising regressive taxes and keep their debt payments the same.   That is enough public money to build light rail to downtown Redmond (approximately $800 million) and build much of the line from Ballard to U.W. (approximately $1.7 billion) without raising regressive tax rates at all.

Sound Transit’s financial report shows the agency thinks it can only borrow $7.3 billion at current tax rates, when they may actually be able to borrow closer to $9.4 billion without raising taxes.  This is not fair to the taxpayers.

We agree with using conservative estimates and careful budgeting by public agencies, but in this case, the interest rate estimates Sound Transit officials are using are extreme, and come at the expense of the taxpayers.

I am of the view we do need these projects as a state.  I am also of the view we need to force Snohomish County to come to reality about their transit situation.  I am finally unqualified to speak of transit needs between Tacoma & Seattle – I will leave that to the comment threads.  But this is something we in the STB community need to discuss and have a no-new-taxes contingency plan ready to unite behind and present to Sound Transit’s Board if necessary either if the legislature nips ST3 in the bud or the voters reject ST3.

One last thing: If you have evidence the above WPC op-ed is untrue, present it.  Otherwise…